West Virginia Senate—It is looking very likely that we’ll have a 37th Senate election to noodle about, the extra being held in the Mountain State to choose the successor to the late Senator Robert C. Byrd (D), the longest serving member of Congress in history who passed away on June...
With just four months to go before the voting in November, many races have settled in—falling into the D or R column as Solid, Likely, or Lean. But then, there are those stubborn toss-ups. Some are unmovable since the primaries haven’t yet been held and the nominees in one or...
On Tuesday, political junkies were treated to the latest in a seemingly unending series of primaries. Several critical statewide nominations were determined in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah. Our updates, written by the voters more than us, are below. NORTH CAROLINA SENATE: The national political party hierarchies on both...
For all our current ratings please see our Crystal Ball website for Senate and Governor. Governor ALABAMA GOVERNOR: The Republican runoff, to be held July 13th, will be between first-place finisher Bradley Byrne and Robert Bentley, who edged Tim James by a handful of votes. It is now obvious that...
With the biggest primary night of 2010 now over, more and more of the midterm picture is coming into focus. The Crystal Ball brings you the following quick takes from the hottest Senate and Governor primary races that were decided this week: ARKANSAS Senate: In the biggest upset of the...
There’s now no question that the gubernatorial turnover in November will be historic, with half or more of the states electing new governors (see our previous article on the subject here). With 37 of the 50 states electing governors, and 23 of those states having no incumbent running with additional...
For months now, this election has been compared to that of 1994, when Republicans scored huge gains and won both houses of Congress. It is a decent model. But given the recent passage of health care reform – something that did not happen in ’94 – this might be a...
Political observers have had their attention directed to state attorneys general of late, due to the court suits against the federal health care reform bill initially filed by fifteen AGs (14 of them Republican, and a lone Democrat from Louisiana). With twenty or more states now signed on to the...
Back in 1980, the Washington Post’s David S. Broder wrote a notable book, The Changing of the Guard, about the generational turnover of national and state leadership occurring at that time. It’s happening all over again. We’ll see dozens of congressional seats switching hands and sides in November, but the...
The 2010 primary season is under way, which at the congressional and gubernatorial levels is often no more than a quiet backwater in America’s electoral process. In recent years, only a few such incumbents have lost their bids for renomination, and only a handful more have had to break a...
With the primaries in Illinois this past Tuesday, the first ballots have now been cast in the 2010 elections. Naturally, most attention by national pundits has been lavished on the Senate and House contests, since members of Congress—wherever they are elected—have an impact on all of us. Governors affect only...
No doubt off-year elections can be overanalyzed. They are few in number. They sometimes give evidence of conflicting trends. And their predictive value for the midterm elections to follow has been rather conclusively debunked (see Alan Abramowitz's column here). Still, in a decade where the partisan political pendulum has stayed...
The following "fun facts" are presented as instant analysis of the November 3 election for the Crystal Ball's readers, straight from the mouth of U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato, with the editorial assistance of Isaac Wood: The Republicans learned they can win again (VA, NJ), but only...
In American politics, what comes around usually goes around. But it doesn't always go around this quickly. Just one year after their decisive victories in the 2008 presidential and congressional elections, Democrats appear to be in serious trouble. Some political commentators believe that Republican victories in the Virginia and New...
We're heading 'round the final bend in this year's Virginia contest for governor, so it's time to take a look at our traditional gubernatorial "north stars." These stars, fixed in the firmament and reliable indicators for decades, have long guided our prognostications. Taking the measure of our ten north stars...
