COPYRIGHT 2009 BY SABATO'S CRYSTAL BALL, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Campaign ads provide a window into any election. Who are the candidates? What do they stand for? What issues are at stake in the race? Campaign ads help to define the candidates, set the agenda of the campaign, and provide the...
Editor's Note: Last week, Larry Sabato examined the 2009 and 2010 races for governor taking place in the Northeast and Midwest. This week, in part two of his analysis, he analyzes the Southern and Western races. Counting New Jersey and Virginia in 2009, 39 of the 50 governorships will be...
Editor's Note: This week, Larry Sabato examines the races for governor taking place in the Northeast and Midwest. Next week, in part two of his analysis, he will analyze the Southern and Western races. Enjoy! With the off-year midterms just a year away, the Crystal Ball will focus on the...
There is no exact formula for projecting the number of voters that will turn out on any given Election Day. The intensity of the contest, the issues being discussed, and the hot-or-cold personalities of the candidates can spike turnout up or down. But history can provide some clues. Voting is...
DELAWARE- SENATE: Republicans got just the break they were hoping for in the Delaware Senate race. Republican Rep. Mike Castle will run, challenging the Vice President's son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (D). Biden would have defeated any other Republican, but Castle is leading Biden in early polls. The Vice...
It was nearly twenty years ago. While assessing L. Douglas Wilder's 1989 victory for governor of Virginia, I first noticed that for four consecutive elections (1977, 1981, 1985, and 1989), the Old Dominion had voted for the gubernatorial nominee of the party opposite to the one controlling the White House....
In the mid-nineteenth century, a delegate to a Virginia constitutional convention argued against the office of lieutenant governor, calling it, "the fifth wheel of a wagon, and much more useless." Worse has been said about the vice presidency over the centuries. Franklin Roosevelt's first VP, John Nance Garner, declared his...
It is often said that the past is prologue. In that regard, this year's gubernatorial candidates in Virginia--Democrat Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell--share a bit of common history. They ran against each other for state attorney general in 2005, a race that ended as one of the closest statewide...
People who live for politics appreciate what real votes in real elections mean. It's pure heroin for junkies. There is no cold turkey like the one between the end of a presidential election and the midterm election that occurs two full years later. The presidential high--the flood of votes in...
We've had two good weeks of gubernatorial fun in the Crystal Ball, reviewing the early match-ups for the 2010 midterm Governor battles here and here. Now it's time to examine the remaining sixteen statehouses, all currently controlled by Republicans. ALABAMA--Gov. Bob Riley (R-AL): OPEN SEAT. With Gov. Riley completing his...
Last week the Crystal Ball conducted a historical overview of gubernatorial midterm elections in the past sixty years. Now we'll continue our initial analysis of the statehouse battles to come by assessing the situation in each of the 36 states hosting a contest for Governor in 2010. Let's start with...
Every midterm year, the lion's share of the attention seems to go to the U.S. Senate and House contests at the national level, even though the governorships are arguably more important. Despite the unusual all-Senate match-up of Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008, the statehouses are still the incubators...
