WINNERS & LOSERS IN THE GAME OF POLITICAL LIFE

One reason why people are attracted to politics is because, like sports, there are usually clear winners and losers. Moral ambiguity and shades of gray may overwhelm other sectors of life, but not the bottom-line of elections. Only finality on November 2 really matters. Raising more money or winning a...

MIDTERM MORSELS: WV Senate and AL Governor

COUNTRY ROADS, TAKE ME HOME (TO D.C.)

West Virginia Senate—It is looking very likely that we’ll have a 37th Senate election to noodle about, the extra being held in the Mountain State to choose the successor to the late Senator Robert C. Byrd (D), the longest serving member of Congress in history who passed away on June...

THOSE STUBBORN TOSS-UPS

Just Can’t Take Our Eyes Off of You

With just four months to go before the voting in November, many races have settled in—falling into the D or R column as Solid, Likely, or Lean. But then, there are those stubborn toss-ups. Some are unmovable since the primaries haven’t yet been held and the nominees in one or...

MIDTERM MORSELS: TERRIFIC TRI-STATE TUESDAY

On Tuesday, political junkies were treated to the latest in a seemingly unending series of primaries. Several critical statewide nominations were determined in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah. Our updates, written by the voters more than us, are below. NORTH CAROLINA SENATE: The national political party hierarchies on both...

Midterm Morsels

For all our current ratings please see our Crystal Ball website for Senate and Governor. Governor ALABAMA GOVERNOR: The Republican runoff, to be held July 13th, will be between first-place finisher Bradley Byrne and Robert Bentley, who edged Tim James by a handful of votes. It is now obvious that...

Governor and Senate Primary Updates

With the biggest primary night of 2010 now over, more and more of the midterm picture is coming into focus. The Crystal Ball brings you the following quick takes from the hottest Senate and Governor primary races that were decided this week: ARKANSAS Senate: In the biggest upset of the...

The Myth of the Angry Voter

The voters are mad as hell, and they’re not going to take it anymore. In the wake of last week’s primaries, that is the conventional wisdom about the 2010 midterm elections among the Washington commentariat. Congressional incumbents of both parties are facing grave danger, the argument goes, as angry voters...

MAY SENATE UPDATE

SENATE SHAKEUP MOVING THROUGH PRIMARY SEASON

The primary season is here, hot and heavy, and it has changed the Senate picture since our last update in April. Some of our individual race ratings have shifted, but our forecast still calls for sizeable Republican gains in November. Democrats are hoping that an improved economy will transform this...

MIDTERMS PAST: THE ’66 PARALLEL

For months now, this election has been compared to that of 1994, when Republicans scored huge gains and won both houses of Congress. It is a decent model. But given the recent passage of health care reform – something that did not happen in ’94 – this might be a...

APRIL SENATE UPDATE

MANY HOT RACES BUT LEVEL OF GOP GAINS REMAINS UNCERTAIN

A lot has happened since our last Senate update in January. And yet overall, the balance hasn’t changed dramatically. Republicans are still likely to gain seats in a cycle that started off in 2009 looking good for Democrats. But how many new GOP senators will there be? It’s time for...

2010 PRIMARIES: GAUGING ANTI-INCUMBENT SENTIMENT

The 2010 primary season is under way, which at the congressional and gubernatorial levels is often no more than a quiet backwater in America’s electoral process. In recent years, only a few such incumbents have lost their bids for renomination, and only a handful more have had to break a...

Bye Bye Bayh

Anybody who says Evan Bayh is retiring because he feared being defeated by ex-Sen. Dan Coats is dead wrong. Bayh was the clear favorite in that match-up, and Coats has been damaged by the lobbying and residency revelations about him over the last couple of weeks. And that’s why this...

Keeping Our Senate Sensibility

The Crystal Ball was the first to project that Republicans had a good chance to pull Democrats all the way down to 52 Senate seats in November. (See our latest Senate article here). So we’re certainly not hesitant to predict big Republican gains. But any serious suggestion that the GOP...

FOR DEMOCRATS, IT’S TIME TO WORRY

For Democrats, it is officially time to worry. The party’s gubernatorial losses in Virginia and New Jersey last fall could be partially explained away as the states’ usual off-year swing to the “out” party. But Republican Scott Brown’s come-from-behind victory last week in the special Massachusetts Senate election for Ted...

RATING CHANGE: Delaware Senate

With the decision by Attorney General Beau Biden (D) not to run, the Crystal Ball has just changed its rating on the Delaware Senate race from Toss-Up to Leans Republican. Congressman Mike Castle (R) is now the favorite to win the seat of interim Sen. Ted Kaufman, formerly held by...