House update: In Electoral College, tie goes to Romney

Partisan control of the individual states’ congressional delegations is a largely meaningless statistic -- until, one of these days, it isn’t. In the event of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, the president of the United States would be selected by the U.S. House. In a rather archaic tradition,...

WHEN THE WHOLE MAP WAS IN PLAY

Throughout this year’s presidential campaign, the competitive portion of the electoral map has been limited to about 12 or 13 states. There are the nine that flipped from Republican George W. Bush in 2004 to Democrat Barack Obama in 2008, plus four or so others -- Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania...

Less than 50 Days to Go

While the presidential race remains close, it’s becoming clear that one would rather be President Obama than Mitt Romney at this point in the race. That’s because Obama retains a small lead in the polls, and history tells us that candidates leading at this point in the race often keep...

Notes on the State of Politics

The Little Things Matter Many politicians may not want to admit it, but much of political success is built on timing and luck. In what is probably going to be a close election on Nov. 6, every small turn of fortune for each candidate could serve as the little push...

FORECASTING THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: OTHER CRYSTAL BALLS

Most of us spend our campaign days eagerly devouring the latest public opinion polls, and there is no shortage of them. In the six days after the conclusion of the party conventions (through Wednesday afternoon), there have been three major national polls released -- not including daily tracking surveys by...

Reviewing the Convention Ratings

While usually the realm of sitcoms, game shows and sports, politics became part of the TV ratings discussion during the Republican and Democratic National Conventions. Breathless reports recounted how 35.7 million people watched Barack Obama’s acceptance speech while just 30.2 million tuned in for Mitt Romney’s. And don’t forget, Michelle...

Is Obama as Goode as Gold in Virginia? Not Exactly

Today, the Virginia State Board of Elections ruled that former Rep. Virgil Goode has qualified for the state’s presidential ballot. The news immediately prompted discussion of what impact Goode will have on the presidential result in November as well as some ambitious declarations that Goode’s place on the ballot hands...