SENATE UPDATE: REPUBLICAN PRIMARY POTHOLES?

Coverage of the race for the Senate has, rightfully and unsurprisingly given the seats in play this cycle, focused on the 23 Democratic-held Senate seats being contested this fall, as opposed to the 10 Republican-held seats. With so many targets, Republicans have many opportunities to go on offense, with seemingly...

Notes on the State of Politics

So much for that anti-incumbent wave Last week’s primary loss by Rep. Jean Schmidt, a southwest Ohio Republican, ginned up curiosity in Tuesday night’s congressional primaries in Alabama and Mississippi, where several House incumbents were supposedly in danger of losing their primaries. That list included powerful House Financial Services Committee...

Notes on the State of Politics

Ben Nelson and the Senate calculus Sen. Ben Nelson’s (D-NE) decision to retire makes a Republican takeover of the Senate a little more likely, but just a little more. It does not dramatically change the Senate landscape. Why? Because Nelson could easily have lost if he ran again. Still, out...

The Anti-Incumbent Election Myth

Or why you shouldn’t hold your breath waiting for a "triple flip" election

Congress is very unpopular. In November, according to the Gallup Poll, only 13% of Americans approved of the job that Congress was doing. That tied the record set in October for the lowest approval rating in the history of the Gallup Poll. Moreover, according to another recent Gallup Poll, only...

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

Perry the Pretender Oh how the mighty have… oops. Despite his best efforts to poke fun at his poor performance, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is feeling the consequences of his now infamous gaffe in last Wednesday’s debate.  A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll reported that Perry’s now-meager support dropped...

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

Ex-Gov. Lingle is underdog in Hawaii Senate race Strange doings are afoot in deep blue Hawaii, where the new Democratic governor, ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie, is the most unpopular governor in the nation according to one pollster, and the old governor, Republican Linda Lingle, is now mounting a credible bid for...

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

Fight night in Nevada Tuesday night’s Western Republican debate in Las Vegas was probably the most entertaining of the season, mostly because the top contenders -- Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Herman Cain -- all took some major hits. Romney, who has been the clear winner of most of these...

IS THE SENATE THE REPUBLICANS’ TO LOSE?

14 months out, a tentative "yes"

The recent decision by ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) not to seek the seat of his retiring colleague, Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl, was a big moment for Republicans because it gave them yet another clean shot at a Democratic-held Senate seat. Feingold, still popular despite his reelection loss last year, would...

Fundraising: Much Ado Over Not All That Much

Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer is expected to officially launch his presidential campaign today. His announcement again tests the famous philosophical question: If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? Roemer, who the Crystal Ball has ranked dead...