Coverage of the race for the Senate has, rightfully and unsurprisingly given the seats in play this cycle, focused on the 23 Democratic-held Senate seats being contested this fall, as opposed to the 10 Republican-held seats. With so many targets, Republicans have many opportunities to go on offense, with seemingly...
Some analysts have been making the case that 2012 is going to turn decisively one way or the other -- perhaps evolving into a 2008-style margin for Democrats or Republicans. Maybe they are right, but every objective piece of evidence so far suggests that this election will be quite close...
In today's Crystal Ball, Alan Abramowitz -- whose election models are among the best in the business -- provides an early look at what they tell us about the race for the House and the Senate. We suspect that these models are a little pessimistic for Democrats at this early...
Ah, the Senate. The battle for control fascinates us -- and all election observers -- because there are so many intriguing races and personalities. Yet, as we update our ratings today and move in a new direction on Congress’ upper chamber, it is worth stressing at the outset that no...
So much for that anti-incumbent wave Last week’s primary loss by Rep. Jean Schmidt, a southwest Ohio Republican, ginned up curiosity in Tuesday night’s congressional primaries in Alabama and Mississippi, where several House incumbents were supposedly in danger of losing their primaries. That list included powerful House Financial Services Committee...
And just when we thought we weren’t going to have any big Snowe storms this year, the decision by… Eh, enough with the Snowe puns. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) shockingly announced her retirement on Tuesday night, which greatly frustrates Republican efforts to win back the Senate. This was a race...
Ben Nelson and the Senate calculus Sen. Ben Nelson’s (D-NE) decision to retire makes a Republican takeover of the Senate a little more likely, but just a little more. It does not dramatically change the Senate landscape. Why? Because Nelson could easily have lost if he ran again. Still, out...
Congress is very unpopular. In November, according to the Gallup Poll, only 13% of Americans approved of the job that Congress was doing. That tied the record set in October for the lowest approval rating in the history of the Gallup Poll. Moreover, according to another recent Gallup Poll, only...
The Senate's curious and byzantine rules and traditions are well explained in Robert Caro's Master of the Senate, part of his sprawling, multi-volume biography of Lyndon B. Johnson (the fourth volume is scheduled to be released next year). Johnson, through his own cunning and ruthlessness, was arguably the most powerful...
Perry the Pretender Oh how the mighty have… oops. Despite his best efforts to poke fun at his poor performance, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is feeling the consequences of his now infamous gaffe in last Wednesday’s debate. A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll reported that Perry’s now-meager support dropped...
Ex-Gov. Lingle is underdog in Hawaii Senate race Strange doings are afoot in deep blue Hawaii, where the new Democratic governor, ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie, is the most unpopular governor in the nation according to one pollster, and the old governor, Republican Linda Lingle, is now mounting a credible bid for...
Fight night in Nevada Tuesday night’s Western Republican debate in Las Vegas was probably the most entertaining of the season, mostly because the top contenders -- Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Herman Cain -- all took some major hits. Romney, who has been the clear winner of most of these...
The recent decision by ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) not to seek the seat of his retiring colleague, Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl, was a big moment for Republicans because it gave them yet another clean shot at a Democratic-held Senate seat. Feingold, still popular despite his reelection loss last year, would...
What a week it has been! As the political world recovers from its deep exhaustion and wonders about the fallout from the debt ceiling deal, it’s worth taking a step back. First, let’s all remember that 15 months from now, when Americans go to the polls to vote for president...
Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer is expected to officially launch his presidential campaign today. His announcement again tests the famous philosophical question: If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? Roemer, who the Crystal Ball has ranked dead...
