As we take a fresh look at next year’s Senate races, one thing is clear: Barring an unexpected reelection landslide by President Obama, Republicans are at least slightly favored to take the Senate. It’s just a basic matter of numbers. Republicans need to pick up either three or four seats,...
Bill Clinton is far from the only “comeback kid” in American politics. As we noted last week, many presidents have experienced election losses before they reached the promised land of the White House. A similar story can be told in the U.S. Senate, with 31* senators leaving the chamber only...
Right now, first-term Rep. Rick Berg (R-ND) looks likely to be elected to the Senate seat left open by the retirement of Kent Conrad (D) in November 2012. The Crystal Ball wondered: How rare is it for someone to get such a fast elevation from the House to the Senate?...
After two strong congressional cycles in 2006 and 2008, the Democrats were "shellacked" by Republicans in 2010. As the 2012 cycle approaches, uncertainty prevails for both parties: Each is trying to hold or expand its majority in one chamber while attempting to weaken and maybe topple the opposition in the...
Here at the Crystal Ball we want to encourage the work of promising young political scientists. This week, we are featuring the work of Harry Enten, a student at Dartmouth College who has an interesting take on next year’s Senate elections. Perhaps Harry’s prediction is a bit too optimistic for...
It’s time for a quick update on the 2012 Senate and Governor contests. Even though only two months have passed since our January roll-out, a surprisingly large number of shifts have occurred. Partly because Senate Democrats pushed their potential retirees to announce early in the election cycle, we have witnessed...
It is already obvious that control of the Senate will be up for grabs in 2012, with Republicans needing just 3 or 4 seats to take control (depending on whether the GOP wins the presidency and, along with it, the vice president’s tie-breaking vote). How much do Senate races in...
Over the next four weeks, the Crystal Ball is going to roll out its very first look at the 2012 contests for Senate, Governor, House, and President. It is ridiculously early, of course. Any analyst who would call these ratings “predictions” should just open up a palm-reading service. Instead, we...
