Our Final 2016 picks

Clinton 322, Trump 216; 50-50 Senate; GOP holds House

After a nearly two-year campaign -- kicked off in December 2014 by Jeb Bush (remember him?) -- we’ve come to it at last. Election Day is less than 24 hours away. And we know why you’re here: You just want the picks. So let’s cut to the chase. Table 1...

Is Clinton slipping?

There are more signs of erosion, but her floodgates appear to be holding

Hillary Clinton has picked an awful time to hit one of the rough patches that has plagued her throughout the campaign. Now with just days to go until Election Day, there’s added uncertainty about the outcome. But while she may not be on the brink of an Electoral College win...

THE COMEY EFFECT

FBI director throws a curveball into the presidential race with a week to go; Clinton slips in ratings but retains clear edge

The purest version of the “October surprise” is a political bombshell that no one sees coming. In the closing days of the craziest campaign in modern history, we have just been witnesses to an October surprise so pure it would qualify for an Ivory Soap commercial (“99 and 44/100 percent...

AN HISTORICAL RARITY: A FOUR-PARTY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

There is no doubt that this is a high stakes election. It is not Tweedledum and Tweedledee, as former Alabama Gov. George Wallace famously said of the major parties when he ran as a third-party candidate nearly a half century ago. Almost everyone nowadays agrees that a Donald Trump presidency...

Could Johnson Voters Save the Republican Senate Majority?

Also, don’t forget about Florida

The watchword for congressional races in a presidential year is coattails, specifically in this election negative coattails from Donald Trump. In the Senate, a number of GOP incumbents are hoping they can run just far enough ahead of their presidential standard bearer to survive. But this is a perilous place...

MIXED SIGNALS IN THE RACE FOR THE HOUSE

Could Trump ruin what has otherwise been a decent Republican cycle?

This may be a particularly bad time to write an update on the House. But we’re going to do so anyway, if only to explain why that is. Mainly, it’s because we’re in a very hazy period in the battle for control of the lower chamber -- a battle that,...

PRESIDENT 2016: GEORGIA IS BACK IN PLAY

Donald Trump’s apparent slide in the polls is continuing, and with that more states seem to be coming into play. We already moved heavily Republican Utah to Leans Republican earlier this week, a decision that was backed up by a recent Deseret News poll showing Clinton and Trump tied at...

THE DANGER OF THE POLITICAL LIMELIGHT

The presidential nominee getting more of the public’s attention tends to fare worse in the polls

Back in mid-September, we noted that there appeared to be at least a limited negative (or inverse) relationship between the amount of attention one presidential nominee was garnering from the public relative to the other nominee and that candidate’s position in the polls. In short, the candidate getting more coverage...

Clinton adds to her Electoral College edge

Debate probably only reinforces the new status quo

In the broad sweep of U.S. history, very occasionally one of the major parties simply disqualifies itself from the contest to win the White House by nominating an unelectable, non-mainstream candidate. We suspect that there will never be a better example than Donald Trump. The Republican Party chose a deeply...

Clinton’s Electoral College lead regenerates

She’s back over 300 electoral votes after a post-debate polling boon

Programming note: We’ll release a special Crystal Ball Sunday night with a recap of the second presidential debate. As we await the second debate, it’s obvious that Hillary Clinton got a bounce from the first debate and has re-established a clear lead in the presidential race. Her national lead in...

THE 2016 STREAK BREAKERS

The longstanding blue and red counties that Clinton and Trump could flip

Editor’s note: As a part of the development of this article, the Crystal Ball team compiled a database of county winners going back to 1836. Click here to access it. Political types may love the 2016 election, but we recognize that for many, it is a dreary affair. Media saturation...