A series of new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls found close races in the key Senate battlegrounds of Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Texas. The polls, conducted online in English from Sept. 5 to 17 with roughly 2,000 respondents per state (narrowed down to about 1,000 likely voters per...
Governors: The Last Frontier’s three-cornered fight favors the Republicans On Tuesday, an important deadline came and went in Alaska’s gubernatorial race: the final day that a candidate could officially withdraw and not appear on the November ballot. Since former Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) entered the race on June 1, the...
We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about...
(WASHINGTON, DC) -- The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos today launched the UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos Political Atlas. The new site combines Sabato’s Crystal Ball race ratings for every House, Senate, and gubernatorial race; Ipsos’ poll-based modeling; and Ipsos’ tracking of social media trends. Ipsos and the...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We have six gubernatorial ratings changes this week, as shown in Table 1 and described below. We also have two House ratings changes. -- Democrats should net governorships, and more than just a few, but there’s a lot of uncertainty. To wit: Three of...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As of Wednesday afternoon, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R-KS) trailed Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) 40.6%-40.5% in Kansas’ gubernatorial primary. If Colyer’s deficit holds, it would mark the first primary loss for an incumbent governor in 2018. -- If the final outcome is...
KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Crystal Ball has three ratings changes in gubernatorial contests, all shifts in the Democrats’ direction: Arizona moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, Illinois moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, and Iowa moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. New ratings in Arizona,...
KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Crystal Ball has new ratings in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin U.S. Senate contests, both in Democrats’ direction. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey’s (D) reelection bid moves from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic, while in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) race goes from Leans...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: -- Maine became the first state in modern U.S. history to use ranked-choice voting (also known as instant-runoff voting) in a statewide election. But this was not the first time that a state used a form of ranked voting or preferential voting. In the early...
KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE -- Both Democrats and Republicans have about equal odds of winning the House majority. -- Republicans remain clearly favored in the battle for Senate control. -- Democrats should start 2019 with at least a few more net governorships than they hold now. Checking in on...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The California primary on June 5 is the most important election in the battle for the House prior to November. -- Democrats are hoping to avoid getting shut out of November by the state’s top-two primary in multiple districts, and the results should provide...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Over the past 60 years, trust in government has declined precipitously. Whereas high levels of trust in the national government were typical during the Eisenhower Administration, by 2016 only a fifth of Americans said they trusted the government “always” or “most of the time.”...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republican primary voters avoided a self-inflicted wound in West Virginia when disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship (R) finished third in the GOP Senate primary. -- Much else went as expected Tuesday night. -- Five ratings changes this week affect races for Senate, governor, and...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The fissures emerging in both parties are evident in Ohio as the state holds its primary next week on May 8. -- The likeliest matchup in the state’s open-seat gubernatorial race is a rematch of 2010’s battle for state attorney general, as former AG...
