Empire State of Mind: New York’s Simmering Democratic Primary for Governor

While Gov. Andrew Cuomo is a strong favorite, his renomination battle may prove to be one of the most interesting gubernatorial primaries in 2018

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: -- As he seeks a third term, Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) is favored to win renomination in what could be a high-profile primary against actress and activist Cynthia Nixon (D). -- However, Cuomo often has upset the left and there may be a path for...

Notes on the State of Politics

Mirror images of vulnerability; two statewide Democrats get upgrades; electoral consequences from #MeToo

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The partisan structure of the races for governorships and Senate seats are now exact mirror opposites. -- Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) get ratings upgrades. -- Rep. Elizabeth Esty’s (D, CT-5) retirement gives Republicans an upset opportunity and is another...

Illinois Primary: Rauner Is Reeling

The Land of Lincoln’s gubernatorial contest now Leans Democratic

Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) endured a difficult night on Tuesday. Although he won his party’s primary to earn a reelection shot in November, the contest in some ways confirmed his overall weakness as the most endangered incumbent Republican governor facing the voters in 2018. As such, the Crystal Ball is...

Mixed Signals: Analyzing Elections since Trump Won the Presidency

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: -- In 2013 elections, Democratic candidates ran behind Barack Obama’s 2012 two-party vote percentage by an average of 5.9 percentage points. A great Republican cycle in 2014 followed. In elections since December 2016, Republican candidates have run an average of 2.6 points behind Donald Trump’s...

Revisiting Virginia’s Vote

Analyzing the popular vote in the House of Delegates and the coattails effect

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: -- Democrats won the two-party popular vote in the House of Delegates 54.8%-45.2% but carried just 49 of 100 seats in the chamber. -- Adjusting for uncontested seats, Democrats won an estimated vote of 51.7% to the GOP’s 48.3% in the two-party vote. According to...

THE GOVERNORS: JUDGE 2018 BY THE BIG STATES

Democrats will net governorships, but which ones those are will define November’s true winner

  Dear Readers: We realize that our pieces can get quite lengthy sometimes. While we know that all readers read every single word (wink wink), we’re going to start offering brief synopses at the top of our longer articles to allow readers who are in a hurry to get the...

Watch the 2017 American Democracy Conference

The Center for Politics’ 19th annual confab looks ahead to 2018 and 2020 while looking back on Trump’s first year

On Nov. 16, the University of Virginia Center for Politics hosts the 19th annual American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville, VA. The conference features leading journalists and political experts discussing the upcoming 2018 midterm election cycle, the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency, and early thoughts on the 2020 presidential election....

Democratic Domination in the Old Dominion

Danger signs abound for the GOP, with a few caveats

Editor’s note: This piece is based on unofficial 2017 election returns. Tuesday represented the best non-presidential election night Democrats have had since 2006. They swept the statewide ticket in Virginia for the second election in a row, and they picked up the New Jersey governorship. They also won a crucial,...

Signs and Portents

What we’ll be looking for in Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday

In an off-year long on election commentary but short on actual elections, the two main events on a Spartan political calendar are now upon us: New Jersey and Virginia will elect new governors next week, and the stakes are high, particularly for Democrats. As we have argued before, the only...

Underneath It All: Elections for the Virginia House of Delegates

The General Assembly’s lower chamber is also up for election on Nov. 7

While November’s political spotlight will shine brightest on the gubernatorial contest at the top of the Virginia ticket between former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie (R) and Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D), there will also be many interesting races down-ballot in the Old Dominion on Election Day. Not only...

Virginia’s Gubernatorial Race: Where Things Stand with Less Than a Month to Go

It’s no surprise that 2017’s top race is competitive

The November of the year following a presidential election is always relatively quiet on the electoral front, with only regularly-scheduled statewide races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. With the Garden State’s contest looking like a safe Democratic pickup and Alabama’s special election for the U.S. Senate not happening...

“This is the House that Jack Built” Premieres

New documentary examines new and little-known stories about JFK

On Wednesday evening, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations hosted the premiere of their new documentary, This is the House that Jack Built, at the Library of Virginia in Richmond. Check your local listings for the documentary, which will begin airing on public television in...

New Jersey Democrats: Growing Certainty at the Ballot Box

But not in the courtroom

Ever since comfortably winning the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in June, former Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy has seemed like a towering favorite to succeed term-limited Gov. Chris Christie (R) as New Jersey’s next governor. Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, the Republican nominee, is being dragged down by Christie’s terrible approval ratings,...

New Poll: Some Americans Express Troubling Racial Attitudes Even as Majority Oppose White Supremacists

Survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos in conjunction with UVA Center for Politics measures racial sentiments in aftermath of August neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics finds that while there is relatively little national endorsement of neo-Nazis and white supremacists, there are troubling levels of support for certain racially-charged ideas and attitudes frequently expressed by extremist groups. The survey also found...