New polls: Democrats in decent shape across the Frost Belt

Democratic Senate incumbents with big leads in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; very close races in Indiana Senate and Ohio governor; Scott Walker behind in Wisconsin

A series of new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls found Democrats ahead in a host of Senate and gubernatorial races in five mostly Midwest states that President Trump carried in 2016, in some cases by sizable margins. However, the polling did find two very close contests for Indiana...

Keep on Keepin’ On: 2018 Incumbent Renomination Rates

Four incumbents lost primaries in the House, one in gubernatorial contests, and none in the Senate

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As a whole, incumbents won renomination in U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial nomination contests at a typical rate in 2018. In all, 100% of senators, 99% of representatives, and 95% of governors who sought renomination in Democratic or Republican primaries/conventions won renomination this...

New polls: Tight Senate races across the Sun Belt

Florida, Texas effectively tied; mixed bag for both parties in Arizona, Nevada

A series of new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls found close races in the key Senate battlegrounds of Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Texas. The polls, conducted online in English from Sept. 5 to 17 with roughly 2,000 respondents per state (narrowed down to about 1,000 likely voters per...

Introduction: The 2018 Midterm Election Forecasts

Editor’s Note: In an effort to provide as broad a view as possible to readers about different methods of forecasting the 2018 midterm election, we have been featuring models from respected political scientists that aim to project the net seat change in the U.S. House of Representatives. So far, we’ve...

The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections

The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections (both on-year and midterms) is a hybrid election forecasting model. It combines the insights and comprehensive assessments of expert election analysts examining in depth the conditions of individual House and Senate contests with a rigorous statistical analysis of historical...

Senate 2018: At Least for Now, the Elephant Endures

GOP maintains edge in race for upper chamber, but Democratic path to majority remains open

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In what is a somewhat unusual development, the incumbent party is not a clear underdog in any single Senate race with just two months left to go. But there are at least a couple of cases where the incumbent party is likely behind. --...

Notes on the State of Politics

Developments in Alaska’s gubernatorial race make it the GOP’s best pick-up target, three ratings changes in the House, and newly-appointed Sen. Jon Kyl becomes an unusual Senate two-timer

Governors: The Last Frontier’s three-cornered fight favors the Republicans On Tuesday, an important deadline came and went in Alaska’s gubernatorial race: the final day that a candidate could officially withdraw and not appear on the November ballot. Since former Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) entered the race on June 1, the...

A Labor Day Status Report

Plus, updates from Tuesday night

We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about...

Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs release new midterm election forecasting tools

New Political Atlas features expert race ratings, poll-based forecasts, and social media trends in advance of the 2018 election

(WASHINGTON, DC) -- The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos today launched the UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos Political Atlas. The new site combines Sabato’s Crystal Ball race ratings for every House, Senate, and gubernatorial race; Ipsos’ poll-based modeling; and Ipsos’ tracking of social media trends. Ipsos and the...

Senate Observations: Placing 2018 in the Context of Upper Chamber Elections Since 1913

Democrats face a difficult map but stand to benefit from being the non-presidential party

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- From 1914 to 2016, presidential cycles featured a higher rate of straight-ticket outcomes than midterm elections, with 74% of presidential-Senate results going for the same party in presidential years. Midterm cycles showed more splits, with just 61% of presidential-Senate results won by the same...

Mountain State Manchin-ations

The Democratic incumbent appears to be ahead in West Virginia’s Senate race, but Republicans remain overall favorites to control upper chamber

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is once again a small favorite in our ratings, moving from Toss-up to Leans Democratic in his race against state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R). -- That ratings change leaves six Toss-ups on the Crystal Ball Senate map: Democrats are...

Registering By Party: Where the Democrats and Republicans Are Ahead

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more...

Never Say Die Senate Candidates: Don Blankenship Lost His Primary but Plans to Run in November Anyway

If he does, the former coal magnate will be just the latest in a long line of Senate primary losers to run in a general election

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Although he lost in West Virginia’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Don Blankenship (R) is actively seeking to run in the general election as the Constitution Party’s nominee. His attempt to run in November will likely involve a legal challenge to “sore loser” election...