KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Like every post-World War II president, Donald Trump witnessed a fall-off in his party’s numbers of U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative seats during his presidency. That said, compared to recent presidents, the erosion on Trump’s watch was more modest than it...
A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America -- the University of Virginia Center for Politics' new look at the 2020 presidential election and its consequences -- is now available through UVA Bookstores, Indiebound, and other online booksellers. Edited by Crystal Ball editors Larry J. Sabato, Kyle...
Dear Readers: We just posted a new Crystal Ball webinar on Friday afternoon, which you can watch at this direct link on YouTube. We discussed presidential concession speeches, our successful Electoral College projection, ticket-splitting (or lack thereof), what remains to be counted, and the looming Georgia Senate runoffs in January....
Dear Readers: Due to popular demand, we decided to release a final pre-election Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. We will be going through our picks for the election. We’ll also hear from Rob Griffin, the research director of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, about the demographic changes we...
Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes. Vice presidential expert Joel K. Goldstein will be joining us to react to the VP debate. If you have questions you would like us to answer about the debate, specific races,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In the past decade, four governors faced either a criminal case or sexual misconduct allegations while in office. That may sound like a lot, but it’s actually quite low by recent historical standards. -- Gubernatorial bad behavior peaked between 2003 and 2009, an era...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) seems to be rising in the Biden veepstakes. -- Late Wednesday, Jon Ossoff (D) apparently captured the Democratic nomination to face Sen. David Perdue (R-GA), thus avoiding a runoff. -- Primaries in South Carolina and West Virginia saw...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep. Steve King’s (R, IA-4) primary loss makes his Republican-leaning seat easier for the GOP to defend. -- There weren’t many other surprises from Tuesday night. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating IA-4 Open (King, R) Likely Republican...
Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow as UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviews Time national political correspondent Molly Ball about her new book, Pelosi, an intimate, fresh perspective on the most powerful woman in American political history. The conversation will take place from 2 p.m. to 3 p.m....
Dear Readers: We're pleased this week to welcome Chaz Nuttycombe to give an overview of state legislative elections in 2020. While we at the Crystal Ball do not do specific race ratings for state legislative races and chambers, we wanted to provide you with an update on these races, and...
Dear Readers: Please join Crystal Ball Editor in Chief Larry J. Sabato, Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman for a livestreamed assessment of the 2020 landscape from noon to 1 p.m. eastern today. The livestream will be available at: https://livestream.com/tavco/sabatoscrystalball and is free. We previously were...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- For talented young political prospects who belong to the minority party in states dominated by one party, the path to statewide advancement is rocky. -- In 34 of the 50 states, a single party controls all of the statewide elected offices. -- Only four...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After just three years in the White House, Donald Trump is seeing a significant erosion of down-ballot seats held by his party. -- This erosion puts Trump in good company -- at least since World War II, presidents typically experience at least some erosion...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Kansas Senate race is getting a lot of national buzz, but we still see the GOP as clearly favored to hold the seat. -- The chances of Republicans springing Senate upsets in New Hampshire and Virginia appear to be growing dimmer. -- Gov....
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Following the 2019 elections, Republicans retain a narrow 26-24 edge in governorships. -- But that’s a big shift from mid-2017, when Democrats held just 15. -- Gubernatorial races are likelier to defy federal partisanship than House and Senate races. The gubernatorial scorecard The Louisiana...
