NOW AVAILABLE: A Return to Normalcy? Our Book on the 2020 Election

Top analysts consider the societal impact of the 2020 election in virtual forum this evening

A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America -- the University of Virginia Center for Politics' new look at the 2020 presidential election and its consequences -- is now available through UVA Bookstores, Indiebound, and other online booksellers. Edited by Crystal Ball editors Larry J. Sabato, Kyle...

How Mid-Decade Redistrictings Saved the Democratic House Majority

Dear Readers: Next month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy: The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. Next Thursday,...

The House: As 2020’s Final Contests Settle, Vacancies Arise

Look for House seat openings in Ohio, New Mexico to come up soon

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With the race for NY-22 settled, 2020’s House elections may finally be fully in the rearview mirror, though IA-2’s results will be reviewed by Congress. -- Before this week, we rated two special elections in Louisiana as safe for either party; with a new...

2020’s Crossover Districts

Only a handful of House Democrats and Republicans represent turf won by the other party’s presidential nominee

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 16 members of the House hold districts that voted for the other party’s presidential nominee in 2020. -- Many Biden-district Republicans are from racially diverse areas, and they often came out on the winning end of rematches. -- Democrats held several Trump seats in...

Seats/Votes Relationship in the U.S. House 1972-2020

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- For the entire period from 1972 to 2020 there is little partisan bias in the seat/vote relationship, but this overall pattern obscures substantial bias from decade to decade. -- In the 1970s and 1980s there was a substantial bias favoring the Democrats; in the...

Sifting Through the Results So Far

Dear Readers: We just posted a new Crystal Ball webinar on Friday afternoon, which you can watch at this direct link on YouTube. We discussed presidential concession speeches, our successful Electoral College projection, ticket-splitting (or lack thereof), what remains to be counted, and the looming Georgia Senate runoffs in January....

Final Ratings for the 2020 Election

Biden favored for president; narrow Democratic edge in Senate; Democrats favored to net seats in House

Dear Readers: Due to popular demand, we decided to release a final pre-election Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. We will be going through our picks for the election. We’ll also hear from Rob Griffin, the research director of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, about the demographic changes we...

The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic

Replaces North Carolina as the seat likeliest to be No. 50 for Democrats; the House state of play

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday at 2 p.m., just hours before the final presidential debate, for the latest edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. If you have questions you would like us to answer about the closing days of the campaign, email us at goodpolitics@virginia.edu. Additionally, an audio-only podcast...

Election 2020: A Fortnight and Five Days Away

Dear Readers: On today’s 2 p.m. edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes, we’ll go in-depth on the race for the Senate. We’ll also be joined by a special guest: Grace Panetta of Business Insider. The election has already started, with millions of votes already cast: Grace is closely following...

With Just Weeks to Go, Trump is Not Making up Ground

Rating changes in Electoral College, Senate, Governor, and House

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes. Vice presidential expert Joel K. Goldstein will be joining us to react to the VP debate. If you have questions you would like us to answer about the debate, specific races,...

Biden Lead Looks Firmer as Midwest Moves His Way

Challenger edges over 270; rating changes for Senate, House

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. We’ll be reacting to the first debate and going over the state of the race, including the many rating changes we made today (see below). We also will be hearing from Chris Jackson...

Presidential Expectations and the Race for the House

That the public is less confident in Biden’s chances than the polls could have a down-ballot impact; 14 House rating changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Perceptions of the presidential race could have some impact down the ballot. -- Ticket-splitting is on the decline, but plenty of voters will vote for different parties for president and House, perhaps to the benefit of candidates from both parties. -- We are making...

Crystal Ball Video Series Continues Thursday

Join Larry J. Sabato and the Crystal Ball team tomorrow (Thursday, Sept. 3) at 2 p.m. eastern for the next installment of our new Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series. We will be discussing the fallout from the two party conventions, the race for the House, and the state...

Excluding Undocumented Immigrants from the 2020 U.S. House Apportionment

Which states would lose seats and which states would gain seats?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Trump recently indicated that he wants the 2020 census reapportionment of House seats to exclude undocumented immigrants from the calculation. -- If undocumented immigrants are excluded, the 2020 reapportionment calculation will change, including changing the number of House seats allocated to the two...