Presidential Expectations and the Race for the House

That the public is less confident in Biden’s chances than the polls could have a down-ballot impact; 14 House rating changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Perceptions of the presidential race could have some impact down the ballot. -- Ticket-splitting is on the decline, but plenty of voters will vote for different parties for president and House, perhaps to the benefit of candidates from both parties. -- We are making...

Crystal Ball Video Series Continues Thursday

Join Larry J. Sabato and the Crystal Ball team tomorrow (Thursday, Sept. 3) at 2 p.m. eastern for the next installment of our new Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series. We will be discussing the fallout from the two party conventions, the race for the House, and the state...

Excluding Undocumented Immigrants from the 2020 U.S. House Apportionment

Which states would lose seats and which states would gain seats?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Trump recently indicated that he wants the 2020 census reapportionment of House seats to exclude undocumented immigrants from the calculation. -- If undocumented immigrants are excluded, the 2020 reapportionment calculation will change, including changing the number of House seats allocated to the two...

House Primaries: A Little More Action This Year Than Usual

If only one more incumbent loses, 2020 will match 1980’s high watermark for a non-redistricting year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As five sitting members of the House have already lost primaries -- and some states have yet to vote -- 2020 could see the most primary losers in a non-redistricting cycle since 1980. -- The circumstances of some of this year’s primary losers are...

House Rating Changes

Eight shifts, almost all benefiting Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recently-released fundraising reports indicate a mismatch between the best-funded GOP candidates and the districts in which they are competing. -- At this point, Democrats are more likely to net House seats than Republicans, although we’re still not expecting much net change overall. -- There...

States of Play: Georgia

Once-dominant Democrats need formerly Republican suburbs to come through for them in 2020

Dear Readers: In the next installment of our States of Play series -- in which we'll be taking an in-depth look at the key states that will decide the presidential election -- we look at Georgia, which Democrats are trying to win for the first time since 1992. Crystal Ball...

The House: Democratic Murmurings in the Texas Suburbs – and Elsewhere

11 rating changes, most in favor of Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s currently strong lead in the presidential race is being felt in the suburbs, which if it lasts could imperil Republicans in some of their formerly dark red turf. -- Texas merits special attention, where as many as 10 Republican-held House seats could...

The Rise of Ranked-Choice Voting

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 2020 has been a banner year for ranked-choice voting. -- Several Democratic primary and caucus contests used the system, which asks voters to rank their choice and forces winners to achieve majority support, albeit through votes from those who did not pick them first...

VA-5: Riggleman Loss Opens Door to a Competitive Race

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep. Denver Riggleman (R, VA-5) lost a bizarre, drive-through convention held over the weekend. -- We moved the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican as a result. Table 1: House ratings change Member/District Old Rating New Rating VA-5 Open (Riggleman, R) Likely Republican...

Notes on the State of Politics

VP omissions; recapping Tuesday’s primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) seems to be rising in the Biden veepstakes. -- Late Wednesday, Jon Ossoff (D) apparently captured the Democratic nomination to face Sen. David Perdue (R-GA), thus avoiding a runoff. -- Primaries in South Carolina and West Virginia saw...

King Dethroned, and Other Notes from the June 2 primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep. Steve King’s (R, IA-4) primary loss makes his Republican-leaning seat easier for the GOP to defend. -- There weren’t many other surprises from Tuesday night. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating IA-4 Open (King, R) Likely Republican...

Why 2020’s Third Party Share Should Be Lower Than 2016

Unified parties, lack of strong alternatives among reasons to suspect major party candidates will get a higher percentage of the vote than four years ago

Dear Readers: We wanted to let you know about two upcoming University of Virginia Center for Politics events. The Center for Politics in partnership with the UVA Parents Fund Committee and UVA Office of Engagement will present a live, online celebration this Saturday, May 16, beginning from 11:30 a.m. to...

How Nancy Pelosi Got to Congress

An excerpt from Molly Ball's new biography of the Speaker of the House

Dear Readers: UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviewed Time national political correspondent Molly Ball about her new book, Pelosi, an intimate, fresh perspective on the most powerful woman in American political history. You can watch their conversation at at: https://livestream.com/tavco/mollyball. In an excerpt from the book below,...

The Democrats’ House Polling Lead: Remarkably Steady

Generic ballot, money edge point to retained blue majority; seven rating changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling has been very consistent over the course of Donald Trump’s presidency. -- Democrats also have a significant money edge in the lion’s share of their most vulnerable districts. Money is not everything, but it can help....

The Next Big Special Election: CA-25

Top-two primary results generally decent for Democrats, but a May special election held amidst uncertainty of the pandemic could give Republicans a chance to make up a little ground in California

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats netted seven House seats in California in 2018, winning 46 of the megastate’s 53 seats. -- The state’s top-two primary election system can provide clues for the fall. With results almost entirely complete, none of the newly-elected Democrats appear to be in serious...