House 2020: Our initial ratings

Democratic overperformance in 2018 gives the majority party breathing room to start, but a GOP presidential win could put the House in play

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats start the cycle favored to hold the House majority, but a GOP presidential victory would open the door to Republicans restoring total control of Washington. -- Overall, roughly equal numbers of Democratic (47) and Republican (46) districts begin the cycle listed in our...

Moderation in the Pursuit of Reelection May Not Help

Evidence from the 2018 House elections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- District partisanship was by far the strongest determinant of the results of House elections in 2018, with Republican candidates typically running behind Donald Trump’s 2016 margins in all types of districts. -- Whether incumbents under- or over-performed was unrelated to ideology. Moderate Republicans actually...

House 2020: The new crossover districts

GOP path to retaking control likely goes through Trump-won districts now held by Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Following the 2018 election, it appears as though Republicans will only hold three districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Democrats are on track to hold 31 districts won by Donald Trump in 2016. -- As Republicans plot a House comeback in 2020,...