Moderation in the Pursuit of Reelection May Not Help

Evidence from the 2018 House elections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- District partisanship was by far the strongest determinant of the results of House elections in 2018, with Republican candidates typically running behind Donald Trump’s 2016 margins in all types of districts. -- Whether incumbents under- or over-performed was unrelated to ideology. Moderate Republicans actually...

House 2020: The new crossover districts

GOP path to retaking control likely goes through Trump-won districts now held by Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Following the 2018 election, it appears as though Republicans will only hold three districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Democrats are on track to hold 31 districts won by Donald Trump in 2016. -- As Republicans plot a House comeback in 2020,...