Dear Readers: Today at 2 p.m. eastern, we'll be devoting our new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series to previewing the debates, which start next week. We’ll go through some of the most famous debate moments and discuss what they tell us about the looming clashes...
Dear Readers: On Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern, we'll be devoting our new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series to previewing the debates, which start next week. If you've got questions about the debates -- both on the matchup this year, and also those from the...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasting Models have an excellent record for accurate predictions of the presidential elections going back to 1992. -- Forecasting models depend on applying electoral history to the current election, but 2020 is historically abnormal (at least, in the period...
Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow at 2 p.m. eastern for the latest edition of our new Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. We'll be going over the latest in the race for president and we'll be hearing from a special guest: Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst at RealClearPolitics. You...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden is better positioned to win the presidency than Donald Trump, but it would be foolish to rule out another Trump upset. -- Trump’s potential winning map would look a lot like 2016, with perhaps a few changes; Biden’s potential winning map might...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Perceptions of the presidential race could have some impact down the ballot. -- Ticket-splitting is on the decline, but plenty of voters will vote for different parties for president and House, perhaps to the benefit of candidates from both parties. -- We are making...
Join Larry J. Sabato and the Crystal Ball team tomorrow (Thursday, Sept. 3) at 2 p.m. eastern for the next installment of our new Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series. We will be discussing the fallout from the two party conventions, the race for the House, and the state...
Dear Readers: In the next installment of our States of Play series -- in which we are taking an in-depth look at the key states that will decide the presidential election -- we look at North Carolina, a state that both parties have made serious attempts at winning since 2008....
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The most critical moments in the 2020 election will come after Election Day, Nov. 3 -- Millions of mail ballots induced by the coronavirus will delay final results in some states for several weeks after the election. -- Congress is most likely to certify...
Dear Readers: In the next installment of our States of Play series -- in which we'll be taking an in-depth look at the key states that will decide the presidential election -- we look at Wisconsin. In a universe without the COVID-19 pandemic, this bright purple state would now be...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Several national pollsters conducted surveys on the eve of the convention season in both 2016 and 2020. We compared them to see how the race was different from four years ago. -- Compared to four years ago, the parties are more unified; Biden is...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While there is a legitimate debate about the public utility of forecast models, these are tools people in politics, finance, and media use to understand the political environment and make informed decisions. These private goods have corresponding public ones. -- Campaign forecasting models, at...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s vice presidential search was the longest in modern history, and it involved an unusually large and diverse list of contenders. -- Yet Biden’s eventual choice was also conventional in that he selected a sitting senator -- common for modern Democrats -- and...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Kamala Harris, long seen as a frontrunner to be Joe Biden’s running mate, represents a vetted, qualified, and safe VP choice. -- Harris is the latest in a long line of Democratic senators who have become running mates. If she becomes vice president, Democrats...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We have no idea how much uncertainty exists in pre-election polls. That leads to very complex poll-based forecast models. -- The general public lacks the expertise necessary to appropriately interpret win probabilities from those complex models. -- Some research shows that overly certain forecasts...
