How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part One

Just 151 out of 3,100+ counties cast half the national vote; gap between top and bottom half expanding

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we discuss the third indictment of former President Trump as well as today’s Crystal Ball article. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Just about 150...

Are Latinos Deserting the Democratic Party? Evidence from the Exit Polls

Democratic share of the Latino vote has been highly variable from election to election

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump performed better in 2020 with Latino voters than he did in 2016, particularly in places like South Texas and South Florida. -- However, an analysis of the longer-term trend in...

The “Big Sort” Continues, with Trump as a Driving Force

Number of blowout counties spiked in 2016, endured in 2020

Dear Readers: UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato recently interviewed Jonathan Karl of ABC News and Rep. Ro Khanna (D, CA-17) about, respectively, their new books Betrayal: The Final Act of the Trump Show and Dignity in a Digital Age: Making Tech Work for All of Us. If...

Why Voter Suppression Probably Won’t Work

Voting procedures, turnout, and vote margins in the 2020 election

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In the aftermath of the high-turnout 2020 election, many Republican-controlled state governments have passed legislation that Democrats believe will harm their party’s voter turnout. -- However, voting rules did not appear to have much impact on turnout and had no measurable impact on vote...

How Democrats Are Losing the War for Counties

Tracking 20 years of county-level presidential election changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats, particularly at the presidential level, are maintaining or increasing their electoral strength in populated areas, but Republicans are strengthening their hold on more rural areas. -- This tradeoff has led to a decline in the number of counties won by Democratic candidates since...

How Donald Trump Turned Off Swing Voters in 2020

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The number of swing voters -- those who change their minds between presidential elections -- has been declining over time. -- However, there are still some swing voters, and they can be decisive in the nation’s highly competitive presidential elections. -- Swing voters helped...

Like His Predecessors, Trump Suffered Down-Ballot Losses — But the Declines Were Comparatively Modest

Biden now confronts the presidential party down-ballot jinx, but his predecessor's shadow might aid his cause

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Like every post-World War II president, Donald Trump witnessed a fall-off in his party’s numbers of U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative seats during his presidency. That said, compared to recent presidents, the erosion on Trump’s watch was more modest than it...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2021

Youngkin captures Virginia GOP nomination; Minnesota under the influence of weed (parties); new report dissects the 2020 electorate

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors VA-GOV: Youngkin wins GOP nomination, race Leans Democratic for the fall Glenn Youngkin, former co-chief executive of the Carlyle Group, won the...

Checking in on Biden’s Approval Rating as Hundred Days’ Mark Nears

Steady on average, but individual pollsters vary greatly

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s approval rating has been steady and positive, though many other presidents had better early numbers. -- The “honeymoons” of past presidents may have been stronger because of a less partisanized and polarized electorate. -- Individual national pollsters disagree on Biden’s approval rating....

NOW AVAILABLE: A Return to Normalcy? Our Book on the 2020 Election

Top analysts consider the societal impact of the 2020 election in virtual forum this evening

A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America -- the University of Virginia Center for Politics' new look at the 2020 presidential election and its consequences -- is now available through UVA Bookstores, Indiebound, and other online booksellers. Edited by Crystal Ball editors Larry J. Sabato, Kyle...

Demographics and Expectations: Analyzing Biden and Trump’s Performances

Dear Readers: This month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. Next week,...

The Objectors Versus the Rejecters

Analyzing how House Republicans voted in last week’s Electoral College disputes

Dear Readers: Last night, UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviewed Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) about last week’s chaos on Capitol Hill, the moment he “knew there was a massive disaster that was underway,” possible sanctions for fellow lawmakers who participated in instigating the Capitol insurrection, the Democrats’...