The Objectors Versus the Rejecters

Analyzing how House Republicans voted in last week’s Electoral College disputes

Dear Readers: Last night, UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviewed Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) about last week’s chaos on Capitol Hill, the moment he “knew there was a massive disaster that was underway,” possible sanctions for fellow lawmakers who participated in instigating the Capitol insurrection, the Democrats’...

Suburban Shifts Power Biden Victory

Greater Atlanta, Denver, and Twin Cities illustrate Democratic gains over 2016

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden outran Hillary Clinton in 73 of 75 large suburban counties, an indicator of the suburban strength that carried him to the White House. -- In Georgia, Colorado, and Minnesota, Biden’s performance in the major suburban areas served as bellwethers for his statewide...

How the States Voted Relative to the Nation

Republicans retain an edge in the Electoral College

Dear Readers: Our new Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar is now available on YouTube and on our YouTube channel, UVACFP. We discuss the latest in the pivotal Georgia Senate runoffs and hear from Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, who is covering those races as closely as anyone. Our...

How did the Political Science Forecasters Do?

Dear Readers: We will be releasing a new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball webinar series next Wednesday morning. It will be posted on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and we will also send out the direct YouTube link in next Wednesday's issue of the Crystal Ball. We'll be discussing the...

Wisconsin: Decisive Again in 2020

In a state that's seen major electoral shifts, the stasis of some areas was also notable this year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Once again, Wisconsin appears to be the tipping point state in the Electoral College, though its 10 electoral votes are back in the Democratic column this year. -- In 2016, Donald Trump made major inroads in western Wisconsin. Despite coming up short statewide, his...

Notes on the State of the 2020 Election

Biden’s thin margins in the decisive states; third party vote declines; Senate aligns more closely with presidential partisanship; Republicans demonstrate down-ballot crossover appeal

Dear Readers: Check out our YouTube channel, UVACFP, later today for our latest Crystal Ball webinar. It will feature the 22nd annual American Democracy Conference: We’ll be hearing from New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie; CNN commentator Tara Setmayer; Republican strategist Chris LaCivita; and Democratic strategist John Lapp. That program...

Sifting Through the Results So Far

Dear Readers: We just posted a new Crystal Ball webinar on Friday afternoon, which you can watch at this direct link on YouTube. We discussed presidential concession speeches, our successful Electoral College projection, ticket-splitting (or lack thereof), what remains to be counted, and the looming Georgia Senate runoffs in January....

Final Ratings for the 2020 Election

Biden favored for president; narrow Democratic edge in Senate; Democrats favored to net seats in House

Dear Readers: Due to popular demand, we decided to release a final pre-election Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. We will be going through our picks for the election. We’ll also hear from Rob Griffin, the research director of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, about the demographic changes we...

The Campaign That Didn’t Matter?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- New numbers from the UMass Poll show very few undecided voters and suggest the vast majority of those voting for Joe Biden and Donald Trump made up their minds well before the pandemic and before Biden secured the Democratic nomination. -- Nearly two-thirds of...

Georgia’s Senate Races Both Move to Toss-up

And how we’re thinking about the presidential race with five days to go

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. for our Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. In addition to breaking down the election with just days to go, we’ll be joined by Scott Tranter of Decision Desk HQ, a site that will be independently reporting results Tuesday night. Scott will...

Elasticity in Swing States

Why a state like Wisconsin bounces around a lot more than a state like Florida

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Swing voters are not the same as swing states. This article discusses a metric called “elasticity” for counties, which tracks a county’s variance in vote margin, to help us better identify and draw the distinction between these two. -- In the 2020 election, Republicans...

States of Play: Virginia

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow at 2 p.m. for our Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. In addition to breaking down the election with just days to go, we’ll be joined by members of the Decision Desk HQ team, which will be independently reporting results Tuesday night. They’ll give us...