The New Dominion: Virginia’s Ever-Changing Electoral Map

Examining presidential elections in the commonwealth from 1968 to 2016

In 2008 Barack Obama carried Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to win the Old Dominion. Obama’s victory broke a run of 10 consecutive Republican victories in the commonwealth, and 13 of 14 going back to 1952. The 2008 presidential election...

Working-Class Republicanism

A new book reassesses Reagan & prompts Trump comparisons

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking a break for the July 4 holiday next week. So we will not publish on Thursday, June 29. We’ll be back on Thursday, July 6. Have a safe and pleasant holiday. -- The Editors A new book tells the story of a president...

Just How Many Obama 2012-Trump 2016 Voters Were There?

Using different surveys to try to answer an oft-asked question

In the immediate aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many observers understandably focused on the numerous places that swung from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. Because many of these areas congregated in swing states within the Rust Belt and Midwest, they played a pivotal role in Trump’s victory, as shown...

Center for Politics poll finds public ranks Kennedy highest among recent presidents

Survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos coincides with upcoming Kennedy centennial 

As the nation marks the 100th anniversary of President John F. Kennedy’s birth on Memorial Day, a University of Virginia Center for Politics-Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that Americans rate JFK more highly than other recent presidents. The online poll of American adults found that of the presidents who served from 1950-2000...

EXCERPT FROM OUR NEW BOOK, TRUMPED: POLLING IN THE 2016 ELECTION AND WHAT IT MEANS GOING FORWARD

Examining the implications for public opinion surveys beyond the horse race

  Dear Readers: Our new book on 2016’s remarkable election, Trumped, is now available. Trumped features some of the nation’s sharpest political reporters and analysts breaking down an election that truly broke all the rules. The following is taken from Chapter 10 of the book, authored by Ariel Edwards-Levy and...

Another Look Back at 2016

Comparing the exit poll and the Cooperative Congressional Election Study

On election night in November, exit polls provided the first insight into how different demographic groups voted. But months later, other richer data sets are being released, and they provide researchers with new information about the election and the voters that participated in it. One such tool is the Cooperative...

The End of the Beginning

Sic Transit the Transition

Tomorrow marks the start of the brave new world of President Donald J. Trump. But today marks the end of the Obama-to-Trump transition. They, and we, survived the interregnum, more or less -- and it was not guaranteed and is worth celebrating. Truly, has there ever been as dramatic a...

An Inexperienced Congress and Cabinet

Highlights from our friend Bruce Mehlman’s latest presentation

Dear Readers: Several times a year, Bruce Mehlman releases a fascinating PowerPoint presentation filled with interesting nuggets about American politics and government. Mehlman, a Republican lobbyist with the bipartisan firm Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas, is a University of Virginia Law School graduate and friend of the Crystal Ball. Because...

2017: AT THE DAWN OF THE AGE OF TRUMP

It’s already clear that the very strange political year of 2016 is bleeding over into the New Year. How could it be otherwise? President-elect Donald Trump, loved and hated by about equal numbers of Americans, continues to ignore or break with convention in a wide variety of areas. Just as...