Coalition Shifts in Senate Races: SC, KY, IL

Winning maps by long-serving senators illustrate broader changes in the nation’s voting patterns

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The reelection victories of three long-serving senators illustrate some of the nation’s political shifts. -- Despite a well-funded Democratic challenge, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) held on in large part because of the lack of ticket splitting in his red state. -- As of this...

Sifting Through the Results So Far

Dear Readers: We just posted a new Crystal Ball webinar on Friday afternoon, which you can watch at this direct link on YouTube. We discussed presidential concession speeches, our successful Electoral College projection, ticket-splitting (or lack thereof), what remains to be counted, and the looming Georgia Senate runoffs in January....

Final Ratings for the 2020 Election

Biden favored for president; narrow Democratic edge in Senate; Democrats favored to net seats in House

Dear Readers: Due to popular demand, we decided to release a final pre-election Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. We will be going through our picks for the election. We’ll also hear from Rob Griffin, the research director of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, about the demographic changes we...

Georgia’s Senate Races Both Move to Toss-up

And how we’re thinking about the presidential race with five days to go

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. for our Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. In addition to breaking down the election with just days to go, we’ll be joined by Scott Tranter of Decision Desk HQ, a site that will be independently reporting results Tuesday night. Scott will...

The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic

Replaces North Carolina as the seat likeliest to be No. 50 for Democrats; the House state of play

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday at 2 p.m., just hours before the final presidential debate, for the latest edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. If you have questions you would like us to answer about the closing days of the campaign, email us at goodpolitics@virginia.edu. Additionally, an audio-only podcast...

Election 2020: A Fortnight and Five Days Away

Dear Readers: On today’s 2 p.m. edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes, we’ll go in-depth on the race for the Senate. We’ll also be joined by a special guest: Grace Panetta of Business Insider. The election has already started, with millions of votes already cast: Grace is closely following...

With Just Weeks to Go, Trump is Not Making up Ground

Rating changes in Electoral College, Senate, Governor, and House

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes. Vice presidential expert Joel K. Goldstein will be joining us to react to the VP debate. If you have questions you would like us to answer about the debate, specific races,...

Biden Lead Looks Firmer as Midwest Moves His Way

Challenger edges over 270; rating changes for Senate, House

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. We’ll be reacting to the first debate and going over the state of the race, including the many rating changes we made today (see below). We also will be hearing from Chris Jackson...

Rating Changes: Maine Senate Moves to Leans Democratic

ME-2 electoral vote now a Toss-up; South Carolina Senate narrows

Dear Readers: On Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern, we'll be devoting our new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series to previewing the debates, which start next week. If you've got questions about the debates -- both on the matchup this year, and also those from the...

The Post-Labor Day Sprint, Part One: The Senate

Race for the majority remains up for grabs with less than two months to go

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats hope they don’t get a repeat of the 2016 presidential race in the 2020 Senate races. The list of Democratic targets is long, but Republicans still retain an edge in most of the second and third-tier Senate races. -- We provide our latest...

Crystal Ball Video Series Continues Thursday

Join Larry J. Sabato and the Crystal Ball team tomorrow (Thursday, Sept. 3) at 2 p.m. eastern for the next installment of our new Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series. We will be discussing the fallout from the two party conventions, the race for the House, and the state...

The Senate: Ranking the Top Dozen Best Targets

Establishment Republicans relieved by Kansas primary result; rating changes in Georgia and Iowa

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- National Republicans breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday night, as Rep. Roger Marshall (R, KS-1) beat 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach (R) in the Kansas Senate primary. Practically speaking, the Kansas Senate race went from being a potentially major Democratic offensive target to...

The Future Shape of the Senate

How 2020 sets up 2022 and 2024

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Constitution divides the Senate into three “classes” that face the voters on six-year cycles. Under today’s political dynamics, the class that faced the voters in 2018 was favorable to the Republicans, while the class that faces the voters in 2020 is favorable to...

States of Play: Georgia

Once-dominant Democrats need formerly Republican suburbs to come through for them in 2020

Dear Readers: In the next installment of our States of Play series -- in which we'll be taking an in-depth look at the key states that will decide the presidential election -- we look at Georgia, which Democrats are trying to win for the first time since 1992. Crystal Ball...