Dear Readers: Last night saw primaries and runoffs in several states across the country, as well as a special election in Nebraska. This was the last big primary night of a busy June. Looking ahead, July will not feature much primary action, although there will be some key contests in...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The president’s party often struggles in midterms, although extraordinary circumstances can save them from losses. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade could be 2022’s extraordinary circumstance. -- Beyond abortion, Republicans still retain powerful political advantages. -- Democrats could get their version of...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Virtually every measurement of public opinion shows that Americans are in a foul mood about their political leaders and institutions. But one group seems to have escaped this wrath: governors. -- State-level job approval polls from Morning Consult show that 92% of governors are...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Although off-year elections for governor generally yield worse results for the party of the president than for the opposition, whether the incumbent governor is running for reelection is a mediating factor. -- The worst outcomes for the party of the president often come when...
Dear Readers: Tuesday night saw primaries in 4 states, as well as a closely-watched (but lightly-voted) U.S. House special election in Texas. In the aftermath of these contests, we’re making 4 rating changes, although 2 of them are in states that didn’t have elections on Tuesday. This is the latest...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Ohio gubernatorial race moves from Likely Republican to Safe Republican. -- A close poll does not mean the Ohio Senate race is a Toss-up. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating Mike DeWine (R-OH) Likely Republican Safe Republican...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) shellacked Donald Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) in the Georgia Republican primary on Tuesday, and we are moving the general election race from Toss-up to Leans Republican. -- The sheer size of Kemp’s win paired with Secretary of State...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New York: No map, but 2 special elections The last few months have not been especially kind to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). Shortly after she...
Dear Readers: We’re pleased to feature 3 items today from our Spring 2022 Crystal Ball interns: Sarah Pharr, Aviaé Gibson, and Alex Kellum. They write, respectively, on trends in youth voter turnout; the voter disenfranchisement of convicted felons; and the roots of the civility crisis in Congress. We thank them...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- It’s hard to quantify exactly what Donald Trump’s endorsement of J.D. Vance was worth in the Ohio GOP Senate primary, but Vance’s victory likely will reaffirm the belief among Republicans that Trump’s endorsement is very much worth having. -- Both the Ohio gubernatorial and...
Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event later today (Thursday, April 28) with the ambassadors to the United States from the Baltic states. Ambassadors Audra Plepytė of Lithuania, Kristjan Prikk of Estonia, and Māris Selga of Latvia will discuss their respective nations’ relationship with the...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Buffalo, and the Western New York region that surrounds it, is further from its state’s population and political centers than almost any major city in the continental U.S. This has made it challenging for political leaders in the region to keep their political clout....
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In almost half the states, governors and lieutenant governors are either nominated separately, or else the official who is next in the line of succession is elected separately. -- This makes it reasonably common for the governor and lieutenant governor to come from separate...
Dear Readers: On Thursday, Jan. 27 from 2-3 p.m., the University of Virginia Center for Politics and the UVA Office of Global Affairs will host a virtual Ambassador Series event with His Excellency Juan Carlos Pinzón, Ambassador of Colombia to the United States. You can watch here. This is the...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Amid a promising national environment for Republicans, we are changing ratings in 4 gubernatorial contests -- 3 of which are in the GOP’s favor. -- The power of gubernatorial incumbency will be tested in 2022, both by a plethora of Republican primary challengers to...
