The New York City Mayoral Primary

Breaking down the political geography of the nation’s largest city as voters digest a crowded and sometimes crazy campaign

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- New York City’s mayors have struggled in their recent efforts to win higher office, but they often become national figures anyway on account of their high-profile position. -- Ranked-choice voting as well as the many twists and turns of the race makes it difficult...

Virginia: McAuliffe’s Chance to Defy History Once Again

Dear Readers: The University of Virginia Center for Politics has released a trailer for its latest documentary, Common Grounds. Produced entirely by student interns at the Center for Politics, the documentary explores the political climate at UVA through the eyes of several students of differing political beliefs. A primary goal...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 26, 2021

A silver lining for House Democrats; Democrats in good shape in NM-1 special; Republicans still clearly favored in top Florida races despite emergence of credible challengers

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The House: A silver lining for Democrats Last week’s Crystal Ball, which featured hypothetical ratings of the House that did not take...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2021

Youngkin captures Virginia GOP nomination; Minnesota under the influence of weed (parties); new report dissects the 2020 electorate

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors VA-GOV: Youngkin wins GOP nomination, race Leans Democratic for the fall Glenn Youngkin, former co-chief executive of the Carlyle Group, won the...

2022 Gubernatorial Races: A Baseline

Aside from Maryland, no statehouses are initially favored to flip -- but surprises are surely coming

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 38 states will see gubernatorial races over the next two years; Democrats currently hold 18 of the seats that will be contested while the GOP holds 20. -- Maryland, where popular Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) is term-limited, will be hard for Republicans to hold....

Virginia and New Jersey Governors 2021: A First Look

In blue states, Democrats could match milestones and break curses

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Virginia Democrats are trying to win three consecutive gubernatorial races, a feat the party has not accomplished since the 1980s. -- Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) is the favorite for his state’s Democratic nomination, though he faces a diverse field. -- In a move...