Dear Readers: Listeners to our “Politics is Everything” podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is...
Category: 2022 Governor
2022’s Split Ticket States
Dear Readers: The Center for Politics at UVA will hold its 24th annual American Democracy Conference tonight starting at 6 p.m. Join us virtually at: https://livestream.com/tavco/adc2022 The conference will feature a pair of panels focusing on what happened in the 2022 election and looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election....
What Happened in the States
Democrats picked up governorships, state legislative chambers; Republican state court victories could have redistricting implications
Dear Readers: Join us at noon eastern today for a Twitter Spaces featuring Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of the Crystal Ball and our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley. They will be discussing the continuing takeaways from the 2022 election, Donald Trump’s presidential announcement, the looming Georgia...
Looking Back at the 2022 Projections
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans...
Final Ratings for the 2022 Election
GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain...
Six Days to Go
House rating changes; Senate, governor updates
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will...
The Governors: Georgia, Florida Move Further Toward Republicans
One week out, rating changes in favor of 2 Sun Belt GOP governors
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A couple of high-profile gubernatorial races move further toward Republicans. -- In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appears positioned to win his rematch with Stacey Abrams (D), probably without a runoff. -- In Florida, the questions are more about the size of Gov. Ron...
Upset Alert
Where to look out for surprising results; rating changes in Senate, House, and gubernatorial races
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s...
Four Weeks to Go
House, gubernatorial rating changes, and the overall state of play
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We’re now less than 4 weeks from 2022’s Election Day. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New...
The 2022 Ad Wars
What we learned watching more than 300 campaign ads released in the second half of September
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become...
Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 28, 2022
Contests for governor in MI, PA look more secure for Democrats
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic PA Open (Wolf, D) Leans Democratic Likely...
2022’s (Potential) Split Ticket States
Voters picking different parties for Senate and governor is on the decline, but there will be at least some mixed decisions
Dear Readers: We all know democracy is in crisis, but what can we do to fix it? Politics Is Everything is a new podcast from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia hosted by Carah Ong Whaley, Kyle Kondik, and other members of the Center for Politics team....
The Gubernatorial Races: Look to the West
The most question marks about 2022 lie west of the Mississippi; rating changes in MD, NY, OR
Dear Readers: We all know democracy is in crisis, but what can we do to fix it? Politics Is Everything is a new podcast from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia hosted by Carah Ong Whaley, Kyle Kondik, and other members of the Center for Politics team....
Notes on the State of the Primaries: June 29, 2022
Dear Readers: Last night saw primaries and runoffs in several states across the country, as well as a special election in Nebraska. This was the last big primary night of a busy June. Looking ahead, July will not feature much primary action, although there will be some key contests in...
Politics in the Post-Roe World
Abortion springs to the forefront but Republicans retain a strong hand
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The president’s party often struggles in midterms, although extraordinary circumstances can save them from losses. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade could be 2022’s extraordinary circumstance. -- Beyond abortion, Republicans still retain powerful political advantages. -- Democrats could get their version of...