What Happened in the States

Democrats picked up governorships, state legislative chambers; Republican state court victories could have redistricting implications

Dear Readers: Join us at noon eastern today for a Twitter Spaces featuring Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of the Crystal Ball and our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley. They will be discussing the continuing takeaways from the 2022 election, Donald Trump’s presidential announcement, the looming Georgia...

Final Ratings for the 2022 Election

GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain...

Six Days to Go

House rating changes; Senate, governor updates

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will...

The Governors: Georgia, Florida Move Further Toward Republicans

One week out, rating changes in favor of 2 Sun Belt GOP governors

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A couple of high-profile gubernatorial races move further toward Republicans. -- In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appears positioned to win his rematch with Stacey Abrams (D), probably without a runoff. -- In Florida, the questions are more about the size of Gov. Ron...

Upset Alert

Where to look out for surprising results; rating changes in Senate, House, and gubernatorial races

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s...

Four Weeks to Go

House, gubernatorial rating changes, and the overall state of play

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We’re now less than 4 weeks from 2022’s Election Day. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New...

The 2022 Ad Wars

What we learned watching more than 300 campaign ads released in the second half of September

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 28, 2022

Contests for governor in MI, PA look more secure for Democrats

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic PA Open (Wolf, D) Leans Democratic Likely...

2022’s (Potential) Split Ticket States

Voters picking different parties for Senate and governor is on the decline, but there will be at least some mixed decisions

Dear Readers: We all know democracy is in crisis, but what can we do to fix it? Politics Is Everything is a new podcast from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia hosted by Carah Ong Whaley, Kyle Kondik, and other members of the Center for Politics team....

The Gubernatorial Races: Look to the West

The most question marks about 2022 lie west of the Mississippi; rating changes in MD, NY, OR

Dear Readers: We all know democracy is in crisis, but what can we do to fix it? Politics Is Everything is a new podcast from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia hosted by Carah Ong Whaley, Kyle Kondik, and other members of the Center for Politics team....

Politics in the Post-Roe World

Abortion springs to the forefront but Republicans retain a strong hand

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The president’s party often struggles in midterms, although extraordinary circumstances can save them from losses. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade could be 2022’s extraordinary circumstance. -- Beyond abortion, Republicans still retain powerful political advantages. -- Democrats could get their version of...

Governors: Escaping Public’s Wrath Even as So Many Others Draw Ire

State chief executives continue to get high marks from voters even as party leaders, Congress do not

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Virtually every measurement of public opinion shows that Americans are in a foul mood about their political leaders and institutions. But one group seems to have escaped this wrath: governors. -- State-level job approval polls from Morning Consult show that 92% of governors are...

How Many Governorships Can Be Expected to Change Parties in November?

Trends from history

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Although off-year elections for governor generally yield worse results for the party of the president than for the opposition, whether the incumbent governor is running for reelection is a mediating factor. -- The worst outcomes for the party of the president often come when...