How the Electorate Changes from Presidential to Midterm Years

A higher share of white college graduates could help Democrats, but a decline in nonwhite voters could hurt them

Dear Readers: Join us tonight from 6-7 p.m. eastern for a conversation with Matthew Barzun, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom as well as Sweden. Barzun will be discussing his experiences representing the United States abroad, his work as the national finance chair for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign,...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 15, 2021

CA-GOV Moves to Safe Democratic following Newsom recall win; Indiana Republicans don't go for the jugular on House map proposal

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday evening from 6-7 p.m. eastern for a conversation with Matthew Barzun, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom as well as Sweden. Barzun will be discussing his experiences representing the United States abroad, his work as the national finance chair for Barack Obama’s presidential...

Cuomo Out: NY-GOV Remains Likely Democratic in Ratings

One of the most common questions we got around this time last year was whether there was some way for the then-presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, to be replaced as the nominee by… Andrew Cuomo, the three-term Democratic governor of New York who had become an omnipresent figure in...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 28, 2021

TX-6 recap; polls show tightening Newsom recall; connection between vaccination rates and 2020 presidential results

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. This week, we are featuring contributions from two of our stellar Crystal Ball interns: Parakram Karnik notes a couple of tightening polls in the California...

Republican Governors Draw Primary Challengers, But History Suggests They Face Long Odds

Checking in on gubernatorial races in Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio, Texas, and elsewhere

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With months to go until the 2022 gubernatorial primaries, several Republican governors have drawn notable primary challengers. -- Still, it is relatively rare for sitting governors to lose renomination, and all GOP incumbents appear to be favored in their primaries. -- Most, though not...

Notes on the State of Politics: June 30, 2021

Assessing the importance of early ads as Youngkin claims massive, early spending edge in Virginia; first-draft congressional map in Colorado helps illustrate the state’s political changes

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Youngkin’s barrage tests efficacy of early ads Part of the reason that Glenn Youngkin was an appealing candidate to Virginia Republicans was...

The States: Recent Candidate Decisions Could Lead to More One-Party Rule

A look at who controls statewide executive offices across the country

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Currently, one party controls all of the statewide elected executive offices in 36 of the 50 states. -- Candidate decisions by down-ballot executive officeholders in Florida and Missouri could make Republican statewide sweeps easier in those states, and Democrats may have opportunities to sweep...

The New York City Mayoral Primary

Breaking down the political geography of the nation’s largest city as voters digest a crowded and sometimes crazy campaign

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- New York City’s mayors have struggled in their recent efforts to win higher office, but they often become national figures anyway on account of their high-profile position. -- Ranked-choice voting as well as the many twists and turns of the race makes it difficult...

Virginia: McAuliffe’s Chance to Defy History Once Again

Dear Readers: The University of Virginia Center for Politics has released a trailer for its latest documentary, Common Grounds. Produced entirely by student interns at the Center for Politics, the documentary explores the political climate at UVA through the eyes of several students of differing political beliefs. A primary goal...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 26, 2021

A silver lining for House Democrats; Democrats in good shape in NM-1 special; Republicans still clearly favored in top Florida races despite emergence of credible challengers

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The House: A silver lining for Democrats Last week’s Crystal Ball, which featured hypothetical ratings of the House that did not take...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2021

Youngkin captures Virginia GOP nomination; Minnesota under the influence of weed (parties); new report dissects the 2020 electorate

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors VA-GOV: Youngkin wins GOP nomination, race Leans Democratic for the fall Glenn Youngkin, former co-chief executive of the Carlyle Group, won the...

2022 Gubernatorial Races: A Baseline

Aside from Maryland, no statehouses are initially favored to flip -- but surprises are surely coming

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 38 states will see gubernatorial races over the next two years; Democrats currently hold 18 of the seats that will be contested while the GOP holds 20. -- Maryland, where popular Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) is term-limited, will be hard for Republicans to hold....

Virginia and New Jersey Governors 2021: A First Look

In blue states, Democrats could match milestones and break curses

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Virginia Democrats are trying to win three consecutive gubernatorial races, a feat the party has not accomplished since the 1980s. -- Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) is the favorite for his state’s Democratic nomination, though he faces a diverse field. -- In a move...