An Excerpt from The Long Red Thread

The factors that transformed the House from a Democratic preserve to a chamber where Republicans often, but not always, have the edge

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik’s new book, The Long Red Thread: How Democratic Dominance Gave Way to Republican Advantage in US House Elections, was published by Ohio University Press this week. It is available through IndieBound, Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other booksellers. The Long Red Thread...

Introducing Our U.S. House Ratings

We will be adding to this list as states complete redistricting

As we noted in the Crystal Ball last week, the congressional redistricting process is unfolding across the country, to the point where we now have a handful of states with finalized maps -- meaning that, barring a successful lawsuit down the line, these states have their maps in place for...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 22, 2021

On the Virginia gubernatorial polls and Oregon redistricting

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The VA-GOV Polls: 2013, 2017, and now It is an unusual quirk of the polling in the 2013 and 2017 Virginia gubernatorial races that the...

How the Electorate Changes from Presidential to Midterm Years

A higher share of white college graduates could help Democrats, but a decline in nonwhite voters could hurt them

Dear Readers: Join us tonight from 6-7 p.m. eastern for a conversation with Matthew Barzun, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom as well as Sweden. Barzun will be discussing his experiences representing the United States abroad, his work as the national finance chair for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign,...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 15, 2021

CA-GOV Moves to Safe Democratic following Newsom recall win; Indiana Republicans don't go for the jugular on House map proposal

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday evening from 6-7 p.m. eastern for a conversation with Matthew Barzun, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom as well as Sweden. Barzun will be discussing his experiences representing the United States abroad, his work as the national finance chair for Barack Obama’s presidential...

Redistricting in America, Part Seven: The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

Democrats seek more from a region they already dominate

  Dear Readers: This is the seventh part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview, Part Two covered several small-to-medium-sized states in the Greater South, Part Three looked at four larger states in the South, Part Four considered the West Coast and the Southwest,...

Redistricting in America, Part Six: The Great Lakes

Democrats will try to wring a bit more out of Illinois, while divided government, judges, and new redistricting methods cloud the outlook elsewhere

Dear Readers: This is the sixth part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview, Part Two covered several small-to-medium-sized states in the Greater South, Part Three looked at four larger states in the South, Part Four considered the West Coast and the Southwest, and...

Redistricting in America, Part Four: The West Coast and Southwest

What will commissions (and Democrats) draw out West?

Dear Readers: This is the fourth part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview, Part Two covered several small-to-medium-sized states in the Greater South, and Part Three looked at four larger states in the South. This week, we’re analyzing the West Coast and the...

Redistricting in America, Part Three: The Republicans’ Southern Prizes

The GOP gerrymandering possibilities in FL, GA, NC, and TX

Dear Readers: This is the third part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview, and Part Two covered several small-to-medium-sized states in the Greater South. This week, we’re analyzing four big Southern states – Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas – which, together, represent a...

Redistricting in America, Part Two: The Dark Red Greater South

The Outlook in AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, SC, TN, & WV

Dear Readers: This is the second part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview. We will cover additional regions in the coming weeks. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans dominate redistricting in a number of small-to-medium-sized states in the Deep...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 28, 2021

TX-6 recap; polls show tightening Newsom recall; connection between vaccination rates and 2020 presidential results

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. This week, we are featuring contributions from two of our stellar Crystal Ball interns: Parakram Karnik notes a couple of tightening polls in the California...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 14, 2021

Murkowski faces weakness on her right flank; many GOP House candidates who lost close races in 2020 are jumping in again this cycle

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. This week, we’re happy to once again welcome one of our interns, Parakram Karnik, who wrote the first item below, on some of Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-AK) problems...