Where People Voted in 2022 — and Where They Didn’t

The vast differences in congressional district turnout

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Despite a requirement that congressional districts have roughly identical populations within states, the number of raw votes cast in each district can vary widely, both within a state and across the country. -- In 2022, there was a nearly 300,000-vote difference between the lowest-turnout...

The Red Ripple Excerpts: Five Takeaways from 2022

On Wednesday, we announced the release of our new book on the recent midterm elections: The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024. What follows are a few excerpts from the book, illustrating five takeaways from the election. As a reminder, Crystal Ball readers can...

No, the Big Lie Hasn’t Gone Away

Tracking how election deniers performed in 2022

Dear Readers: Listeners to our “Politics is Everything” podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is...

The New Crossover Members of the House

Republicans win majority by cutting deeper into hostile turf; number of split districts remains low historically

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. -- There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5...

Final Ratings for the 2022 Election

GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain...

Six Days to Go

House rating changes; Senate, governor updates

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will...

Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think

Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. Lucca brings that...

Upset Alert

Where to look out for surprising results; rating changes in Senate, House, and gubernatorial races

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s...

Four Weeks to Go

House, gubernatorial rating changes, and the overall state of play

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We’re now less than 4 weeks from 2022’s Election Day. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New...

The 2022 Ad Wars

What we learned watching more than 300 campaign ads released in the second half of September

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become...

House Rating Changes: RGV versus RCV

Two House rating changes, both in favor of 2022 special election winners

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each area has key idiosyncrasies....