Notes on the State of Politics: July 14, 2021

Murkowski faces weakness on her right flank; many GOP House candidates who lost close races in 2020 are jumping in again this cycle

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. This week, we’re happy to once again welcome one of our interns, Parakram Karnik, who wrote the first item below, on some of Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-AK) problems...

Where Both Parties Overperform in the House

Comparing how many seats they have versus how many the 2020 presidential results would have suggested

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we head into a once-a-decade redistricting cycle, we analyzed which states have one party that is currently overperforming in its House delegation compared to that party’s share of the 2020 presidential vote. -- Overall, the GOP has notched notable overperformances in 19 medium-to-large-sized...

Notes on the State of Politics: June 30, 2021

Assessing the importance of early ads as Youngkin claims massive, early spending edge in Virginia; first-draft congressional map in Colorado helps illustrate the state’s political changes

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Youngkin’s barrage tests efficacy of early ads Part of the reason that Glenn Youngkin was an appealing candidate to Virginia Republicans was...

Differential Privacy and the Upcoming Process of Redistricting

New method of protecting privacy in census may cause problems for drawing districts

Dear Readers: Next Thursday, June 10, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. eastern time. He’ll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. You can tune in...

The NM-1 Special: Democrats Hold Serve

House specials may not be as useful an indicator as they were in the 2018 cycle

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats turned in an impressive victory in Tuesday night’s special election in NM-1. This comes a month after Republicans scored an impressive performance of their own in the first round of the TX-6 special. -- Democratic performance represented an improvement over both Barack Obama...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 26, 2021

A silver lining for House Democrats; Democrats in good shape in NM-1 special; Republicans still clearly favored in top Florida races despite emergence of credible challengers

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The House: A silver lining for Democrats Last week’s Crystal Ball, which featured hypothetical ratings of the House that did not take...

The House: Democrats Would Have a Tough Slog Even Without Redistricting

Our hypothetical ratings of House 2022 if no district lines changed

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The reapportionment of House seats and pending redistricting has prevented us from releasing U.S. House ratings so far this cycle. -- While Republicans stand to gain from this process, they would be favored to win the House even if the district lines were not...

The Different Ways of Expanding the House

The number of House representatives has remained largely static for almost a century

Dear Readers: The recent House reapportionment shuffled a handful of seats among the states, but the number of members of the House -- 435 -- did not change. The House has been stuck at just 435 members since the 1910 census, save for a temporary increase to 437 to account...

The Splitting of the Ticket Split

What happened to the House incumbency edge?

Dear Readers: We are excited to feature a first-time Crystal Ball contributor today, UVA student Ethan Chen. He examines an interesting phenomenon in the 2020 House elections: a much more significant incumbency advantage for Republicans compared to Democrats. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The 2020 House...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2021

Youngkin captures Virginia GOP nomination; Minnesota under the influence of weed (parties); new report dissects the 2020 electorate

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors VA-GOV: Youngkin wins GOP nomination, race Leans Democratic for the fall Glenn Youngkin, former co-chief executive of the Carlyle Group, won the...

Notes on the State of Politics: April 20, 2021

GOP starts favored to hold OH-15 special; widening field in North Carolina Senate race; LBJ’s rise and “court packing”

Dear Readers: Over the years, the Crystal Ball has published periodic articles with the headline “Notes on the State of Politics.” These articles feature shorter, bite-sized observations about elections and politics. As a way to better serve readers, we’re planning on publishing more frequent “Notes on the State of Politics”...

The Mini-Midterms: Five Takeaways from Six Decades of House Special Elections

Races often break against president’s party; winners rarely lose next election

Dear Readers: Join us tonight (Thursday, April 15) at 6:30 p.m. eastern for a free, virtual panel: “The Changing Face of America: Voters of Color in the 2020 Election.” Theodore Johnson of the Brennan Center for Justice will moderate, and Andra Gillespie of Emory University, Mark Hugo Lopez of the...