Dear Readers: Listeners to our “Politics is Everything” podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is...
Category: 2022 House
The New Crossover Members of the House
Republicans win majority by cutting deeper into hostile turf; number of split districts remains low historically
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. -- There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5...
Looking Back at the 2022 Projections
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans...
Final Ratings for the 2022 Election
GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain...
Six Days to Go
House rating changes; Senate, governor updates
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will...
The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field
Five rating changes, all benefiting Republicans
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We now rate 218 House seats -- the magic number for winning a majority -- as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up...
Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think
Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. Lucca brings that...
Upset Alert
Where to look out for surprising results; rating changes in Senate, House, and gubernatorial races
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s...
Four Weeks to Go
House, gubernatorial rating changes, and the overall state of play
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We’re now less than 4 weeks from 2022’s Election Day. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New...
The 2022 Ad Wars
What we learned watching more than 300 campaign ads released in the second half of September
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become...
House Rating Changes: RGV versus RCV
Two House rating changes, both in favor of 2022 special election winners
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each area has key idiosyncrasies....
Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House
Plus 6 rating changes
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. The lion’s share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating...
Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022
Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Center’s first annual “Defender of Democracy” awards....
The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the...
Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. -- A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but...