Dear Readers: This is the first of a multi-part Crystal Ball series that we’ll be publishing periodically between now and Labor Day analyzing congressional redistricting. In future parts of the series, we’ll cover redistricting across the nation’s regions, touching on every state. The redistricting process has been slow to develop...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. This week, we’re happy to once again welcome one of our interns, Parakram Karnik, who wrote the first item below, on some of Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-AK) problems...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we head into a once-a-decade redistricting cycle, we analyzed which states have one party that is currently overperforming in its House delegation compared to that party’s share of the 2020 presidential vote. -- Overall, the GOP has notched notable overperformances in 19 medium-to-large-sized...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Youngkin’s barrage tests efficacy of early ads Part of the reason that Glenn Youngkin was an appealing candidate to Virginia Republicans was...
Dear Readers: Later today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. eastern time. He’ll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. You can tune in for free...
Dear Readers: Next Thursday, June 10, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. eastern time. He’ll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. You can tune in...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats turned in an impressive victory in Tuesday night’s special election in NM-1. This comes a month after Republicans scored an impressive performance of their own in the first round of the TX-6 special. -- Democratic performance represented an improvement over both Barack Obama...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The House: A silver lining for Democrats Last week’s Crystal Ball, which featured hypothetical ratings of the House that did not take...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The reapportionment of House seats and pending redistricting has prevented us from releasing U.S. House ratings so far this cycle. -- While Republicans stand to gain from this process, they would be favored to win the House even if the district lines were not...
Dear Readers: The recent House reapportionment shuffled a handful of seats among the states, but the number of members of the House -- 435 -- did not change. The House has been stuck at just 435 members since the 1910 census, save for a temporary increase to 437 to account...
Dear Readers: We are excited to feature a first-time Crystal Ball contributor today, UVA student Ethan Chen. He examines an interesting phenomenon in the 2020 House elections: a much more significant incumbency advantage for Republicans compared to Democrats. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The 2020 House...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors VA-GOV: Youngkin wins GOP nomination, race Leans Democratic for the fall Glenn Youngkin, former co-chief executive of the Carlyle Group, won the...
Dear Readers: We are publishing a special, early-week edition of the Crystal Ball in order to react to Monday afternoon’s U.S. Census Bureau congressional reapportionment announcement. We’ll be back with a second issue of the Crystal Ball later this week. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The...
Dear Readers: Over the years, the Crystal Ball has published periodic articles with the headline “Notes on the State of Politics.” These articles feature shorter, bite-sized observations about elections and politics. As a way to better serve readers, we’re planning on publishing more frequent “Notes on the State of Politics”...
Dear Readers: Join us tonight (Thursday, April 15) at 6:30 p.m. eastern for a free, virtual panel: “The Changing Face of America: Voters of Color in the 2020 Election.” Theodore Johnson of the Brennan Center for Justice will moderate, and Andra Gillespie of Emory University, Mark Hugo Lopez of the...
