The 2022 Ad Wars

What we learned watching more than 300 campaign ads released in the second half of September

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become...

House Rating Changes: RGV versus RCV

Two House rating changes, both in favor of 2022 special election winners

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each area has key idiosyncrasies....

Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022

Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Center’s first annual “Defender of Democracy” awards....

The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 7, 2022

House rating changes; MA-GOV to Safe Democratic; next week’s primaries

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes District Old Rating New Rating Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Safe Republican Toss-up MI-3 Open (Meijer, R) Toss-up Leans...

Notes on the State of Politics: August 24, 2022

NY rating changes after impressive Democratic special election win; OH-SEN to Leans Republican

  Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. We are making a few rating changes today, including in a pair of upstate New York House races after Democrats scored an impressive victory in a closely-watched swing...

House Rating Changes: More Movement Toward Republicans

10 changes, all but 1 in favor of GOP

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making 10 House rating changes, 9 of which benefit Republicans. -- Our overall best guess at the net change in the House -- a GOP gain somewhere in the 20s -- remains unchanged. -- We don’t see a huge impact, so far,...

Politics in the Post-Roe World

Abortion springs to the forefront but Republicans retain a strong hand

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The president’s party often struggles in midterms, although extraordinary circumstances can save them from losses. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade could be 2022’s extraordinary circumstance. -- Beyond abortion, Republicans still retain powerful political advantages. -- Democrats could get their version of...

Notes on the State of Politics: June 22, 2022

House rating changes in Virginia, California, and Alaska

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Barring an unexpected development, this is going to be the only issue of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back next week with a reaction to next...

How the House Landscape Changed

A mild decline in competitive seats, and a spike in safe Republican ones

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The new House landscape is fairly similar to the old one. -- However, there is a notable increase in the number of super-safe Republican seats -- and a modest decline in the overall number of competitive districts. -- New Hampshire, the final state...

Rating Change: GA-GOV to Leans Republican Following Kemp’s Smashing Primary Win

Incumbent faces rematch with Abrams in a more favorable cycle; other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) shellacked Donald Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) in the Georgia Republican primary on Tuesday, and we are moving the general election race from Toss-up to Leans Republican. -- The sheer size of Kemp’s win paired with Secretary of State...