The Kinds of Seats that Flip in Midterms

Looking back on past recent waves to assess Republicans’ potential in November

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While increasingly salient issues like abortion could change the political environment, Republicans still appear on track for a strong showing in the U.S. House. -- Recent midterms have hollowed out the presidential party’s holdings of districts where the president either did the same or...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2022

New York’s looming House specials; a nationalized West Virginia primary; Nebraska governor

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New York: No map, but 2 special elections The last few months have not been especially kind to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). Shortly after she...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 5, 2022

Crystal Ball interns explore youth voting, felon disenfranchisement, civility in Congress

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to feature 3 items today from our Spring 2022 Crystal Ball interns: Sarah Pharr, Aviaé Gibson, and Alex Kellum. They write, respectively, on trends in youth voter turnout; the voter disenfranchisement of convicted felons; and the roots of the civility crisis in Congress. We thank them...

Breaking Down the DeSantimander

New Florida map should allow Republicans to win 20 of 28 seats in nation’s third-largest state

Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event on Thursday, April 28 with the ambassadors to the United States from the Baltic states. Ambassadors Audra Plepytė of Lithuania, Kristjan Prikk of Estonia, and Māris Selga of Latvia will discuss their respective nations’ relationship with the United States...

House Rating Changes: 11 Moves, All in Favor of Republicans

Bigger picture coming a bit more into focus with redistricting nearly done

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making 11 rating changes in the House this week, all in favor of Republicans. -- The bulk of these changes either move marginally competitive Republican-held seats to the Safe Republican category or move Democratic districts from Likely Democratic to the more competitive...

Trump-District House Democrats Could Become Extinct This November

How redistricting has altered the number of “crossover” districts

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The number of “crossover” districts -- those won by different parties for president and House -- has generally been declining over time. -- Under the current congressional district lines, there were only 16 crossover districts in 2020, with Republicans winning 9 Biden-won seats and...

Are Democrats Headed for a Shellacking in the Midterm Election?

What the generic ballot model predicts

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics. -- President Biden’s numbers are weak as well. But it may be that Democrats are insulated in some ways from a potential “shellacking.” -- Democrats are very likely to lose their House majority,...

Sarah Palin’s Surprising and Possibly Historic Run for the House

How a victory would set her apart from other unsuccessful postwar VP candidates

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin surprised the political world when she announced a run to replace the late Don Young in Alaska’s at-large U.S. House seat. -- It’s not unusual for VP losers to subsequently win elected office, although in recent decades...

Notes on the State of Politics: April 6, 2022

Rating new House maps in Ohio, Maryland, and Louisiana

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Ohio: Republicans still have a chance to win all but 2 seats We noted last week that the Ohio Supreme Court has scheduled arguments for...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 30, 2022

Two more looming House special elections; redistricting updates

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Special elections imminent in Nebraska, Texas With the congressional primary season schedule already poised to start heating up in May, 2 new elections will soon...

Redistricting: What’s Left?

Looking at the 5 states (and 59 districts) that have yet to be finalized

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The national redistricting picture is nearly complete, as only 5 more states -- FL, LA, MO, NH, and OH -- have yet to enact congressional maps. -- While Democrats are currently up in our running House tally, the plans from those 5 remaining states...

Breaking Down North Carolina and Pennsylvania’s New Maps

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- North Carolina and Pennsylvania are 2 closely-divided states where the redistricting process this cycle ultimately fell to Democratic-controlled state courts. -- Democrats seem likely to gain at least 1 seat out of North Carolina, although the relatively favorable map that they got will only...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 2, 2022

TX-28 to Toss-up; national House vote in midterms; the new OK Senate race

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) Leans Democratic Toss-up Texas primary takeaways We’d say the...

Redistricting and Competition in Congressional Elections

Forces beyond gerrymandering explain rising number of districts that strongly favor one party

Dear Readers: Join the UVA Center for Politics this Friday from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. eastern for a virtual panel, “Crisis in Europe: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine.” Center for Politics resident scholar Chris Krebs, the former director of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency,...