Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 7, 2022

House rating changes; MA-GOV to Safe Democratic; next week’s primaries

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes District Old Rating New Rating Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Safe Republican Toss-up MI-3 Open (Meijer, R) Toss-up Leans...

Notes on the State of Politics: August 24, 2022

NY rating changes after impressive Democratic special election win; OH-SEN to Leans Republican

  Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. We are making a few rating changes today, including in a pair of upstate New York House races after Democrats scored an impressive victory in a closely-watched swing...

House Rating Changes: More Movement Toward Republicans

10 changes, all but 1 in favor of GOP

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making 10 House rating changes, 9 of which benefit Republicans. -- Our overall best guess at the net change in the House -- a GOP gain somewhere in the 20s -- remains unchanged. -- We don’t see a huge impact, so far,...

Politics in the Post-Roe World

Abortion springs to the forefront but Republicans retain a strong hand

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The president’s party often struggles in midterms, although extraordinary circumstances can save them from losses. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade could be 2022’s extraordinary circumstance. -- Beyond abortion, Republicans still retain powerful political advantages. -- Democrats could get their version of...

Notes on the State of Politics: June 22, 2022

House rating changes in Virginia, California, and Alaska

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Barring an unexpected development, this is going to be the only issue of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back next week with a reaction to next...

How the House Landscape Changed

A mild decline in competitive seats, and a spike in safe Republican ones

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The new House landscape is fairly similar to the old one. -- However, there is a notable increase in the number of super-safe Republican seats -- and a modest decline in the overall number of competitive districts. -- New Hampshire, the final state...

Rating Change: GA-GOV to Leans Republican Following Kemp’s Smashing Primary Win

Incumbent faces rematch with Abrams in a more favorable cycle; other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) shellacked Donald Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) in the Georgia Republican primary on Tuesday, and we are moving the general election race from Toss-up to Leans Republican. -- The sheer size of Kemp’s win paired with Secretary of State...

The Kinds of Seats that Flip in Midterms

Looking back on past recent waves to assess Republicans’ potential in November

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While increasingly salient issues like abortion could change the political environment, Republicans still appear on track for a strong showing in the U.S. House. -- Recent midterms have hollowed out the presidential party’s holdings of districts where the president either did the same or...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2022

New York’s looming House specials; a nationalized West Virginia primary; Nebraska governor

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New York: No map, but 2 special elections The last few months have not been especially kind to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). Shortly after she...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 5, 2022

Crystal Ball interns explore youth voting, felon disenfranchisement, civility in Congress

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to feature 3 items today from our Spring 2022 Crystal Ball interns: Sarah Pharr, Aviaé Gibson, and Alex Kellum. They write, respectively, on trends in youth voter turnout; the voter disenfranchisement of convicted felons; and the roots of the civility crisis in Congress. We thank them...

Breaking Down the DeSantimander

New Florida map should allow Republicans to win 20 of 28 seats in nation’s third-largest state

Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event on Thursday, April 28 with the ambassadors to the United States from the Baltic states. Ambassadors Audra Plepytė of Lithuania, Kristjan Prikk of Estonia, and Māris Selga of Latvia will discuss their respective nations’ relationship with the United States...

House Rating Changes: 11 Moves, All in Favor of Republicans

Bigger picture coming a bit more into focus with redistricting nearly done

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making 11 rating changes in the House this week, all in favor of Republicans. -- The bulk of these changes either move marginally competitive Republican-held seats to the Safe Republican category or move Democratic districts from Likely Democratic to the more competitive...

Trump-District House Democrats Could Become Extinct This November

How redistricting has altered the number of “crossover” districts

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The number of “crossover” districts -- those won by different parties for president and House -- has generally been declining over time. -- Under the current congressional district lines, there were only 16 crossover districts in 2020, with Republicans winning 9 Biden-won seats and...