Notes on the State of Politics: March 30, 2022

Two more looming House special elections; redistricting updates

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Special elections imminent in Nebraska, Texas With the congressional primary season schedule already poised to start heating up in May, 2 new elections will soon...

Redistricting: What’s Left?

Looking at the 5 states (and 59 districts) that have yet to be finalized

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The national redistricting picture is nearly complete, as only 5 more states -- FL, LA, MO, NH, and OH -- have yet to enact congressional maps. -- While Democrats are currently up in our running House tally, the plans from those 5 remaining states...

Breaking Down North Carolina and Pennsylvania’s New Maps

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- North Carolina and Pennsylvania are 2 closely-divided states where the redistricting process this cycle ultimately fell to Democratic-controlled state courts. -- Democrats seem likely to gain at least 1 seat out of North Carolina, although the relatively favorable map that they got will only...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 2, 2022

TX-28 to Toss-up; national House vote in midterms; the new OK Senate race

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) Leans Democratic Toss-up Texas primary takeaways We’d say the...

Redistricting and Competition in Congressional Elections

Forces beyond gerrymandering explain rising number of districts that strongly favor one party

Dear Readers: Join the UVA Center for Politics this Friday from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. eastern for a virtual panel, “Crisis in Europe: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine.” Center for Politics resident scholar Chris Krebs, the former director of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency,...

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 23, 2022

Washington a GOP Senate sleeper; rating Rhode Island; special House elections in MN-1 & CA-22; looking for Democratic slippage in South Texas

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Patty Murray (D-WA) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Washington Senate to Likely Democratic While...

New House Ratings: Connecticut, Kansas, Minnesota, and Washington

Only 9 states have not finished their maps

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Four more states finalized their House maps over the past week or so, bringing the total number of states with completed congressional maps to 41. -- Maps in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Washington did not change much at all, while Kansas Republicans targeted the state’s...

Democrats’ Position Improves in Redistricting Tally

Breaking down new maps in New York, Tennessee

  Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow, Wednesday, Feb. 9, as Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviews Rep. Ro Khanna (D, CA-17) about Khanna’s new book, Dignity in a Digital Age: Making Tech Work for All of Us. The program will run from 6:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. eastern time....

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 2, 2022

Can Republicans play in deep blue Senate seats? New maps in HI, SC (and NY)

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Are any deep blue Senate seats in danger for Democrats? As Democrats attempt to defend their Senate majority, they hold 4 seats that both sides...

Notes on the State of Politics: Jan. 26, 2022

Warning signs in South TX for Democrats, Iowa looking redder, two new state maps

Dear Readers: On Thursday, Jan. 27 from 2-3 p.m., the University of Virginia Center for Politics and the UVA Office of Global Affairs will host a virtual Ambassador Series event with His Excellency Juan Carlos Pinzón, Ambassador of Colombia to the United States. You can watch here. This is the...

House Republicans’ Drive to 35

What it would take for the GOP to build its biggest majority since the Great Depression

Dear Readers: If you missed last week’s special UVA Center for Politics program, “The Shock of January 6,” it is now available on our YouTube channel, UVACFP. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With some key national factors seemingly in their favor, Republicans could win a healthy...

The Holiday Redistricting Flurry

Nearly two-thirds of districts now complete, barring judicial intervention; Republicans remain well-positioned to win House

Dear Readers: Please join us Thursday evening for a special University of Virginia Center for Politics event: “The Shock of January 6,” commemorating the first anniversary of the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will moderate the event live...

Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 16, 2021

Redistricting scorecard so far; the new Maryland map; and a look back on the New Jersey and Virginia results

Dear Readers: After the new year, please join us for a special University of Virginia Center for Politics event: “The Shock of Jan. 6,” commemorating the first anniversary of the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will moderate the...

A Tale of Two Midwestern Gerrymanders: Illinois and Ohio

Plus redistricting updates elsewhere, and a gubernatorial rating change

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Gerrymanders by Democrats in Illinois and Republicans in Ohio seek to build upon their dominance of their respective states. -- The Ohio Supreme Court could intervene against the GOP gerrymander there, which perhaps helps explain why Republicans were not as aggressive as they could...