Notes on the State of Politics: May 5, 2022

Crystal Ball interns explore youth voting, felon disenfranchisement, civility in Congress

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to feature 3 items today from our Spring 2022 Crystal Ball interns: Sarah Pharr, Aviaé Gibson, and Alex Kellum. They write, respectively, on trends in youth voter turnout; the voter disenfranchisement of convicted felons; and the roots of the civility crisis in Congress. We thank them...

A Trump Bump for Vance

Key Ohio races remain rated Likely Republican following primary

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- It’s hard to quantify exactly what Donald Trump’s endorsement of J.D. Vance was worth in the Ohio GOP Senate primary, but Vance’s victory likely will reaffirm the belief among Republicans that Trump’s endorsement is very much worth having. -- Both the Ohio gubernatorial and...

Abortion Battlefields in a Potentially Post-Roe Political World

Watch these states in the event of a landmark Supreme Court decision later this year

Dear Readers: In light of a recent Politico article that features a leaked majority draft opinion from Justice Samuel Alito that would overturn the landmark Roe vs. Wade decision, we are re-running a March article from Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Lou Jacobson. We have made some minor updates to the article to account for a few new developments. In...

Notes on the State of the Senate

The overall picture for November, and the looming primaries in May

The small stuff versus the big stuff There is a push and pull in the race for control of the U.S. Senate between the big picture electoral environment, which clearly benefits Republicans, and the day-to-day developments on the campaign trail, which do not always clearly benefit Republicans. Examples of the...

Are Democrats Headed for a Shellacking in the Midterm Election?

What the generic ballot model predicts

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics. -- President Biden’s numbers are weak as well. But it may be that Democrats are insulated in some ways from a potential “shellacking.” -- Democrats are very likely to lose their House majority,...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 2, 2022

TX-28 to Toss-up; national House vote in midterms; the new OK Senate race

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) Leans Democratic Toss-up Texas primary takeaways We’d say the...

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 23, 2022

Washington a GOP Senate sleeper; rating Rhode Island; special House elections in MN-1 & CA-22; looking for Democratic slippage in South Texas

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Patty Murray (D-WA) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Washington Senate to Likely Democratic While...

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 2, 2022

Can Republicans play in deep blue Senate seats? New maps in HI, SC (and NY)

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Are any deep blue Senate seats in danger for Democrats? As Democrats attempt to defend their Senate majority, they hold 4 seats that both sides...

New Hampshire: The Fallout from Sununu’s Choice

Gubernatorial race moves to Safe Republican, but GOP still lacks a top challenger to Hassan

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans are still looking for a challenger to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) after Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) surprisingly passed on running against her next year. -- Sununu’s decision to run for reelection means Republicans are heavy favorites to hold onto the New Hampshire governorship....

Republican Sweep in Virginia Sets off Alarm Bells for Democrats

After picking Youngkin in Old Dominion, Crystal Ball shifts several Democratic Senate seats to Toss-up

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow, Thursday, Nov. 4, from 6:30 p.m.* to 8 p.m. for our annual American Democracy Conference. The virtual event will begin with a presentation by Project Home Fire’s Larry Schack and Mick McWilliams on our ongoing polling and data analytics project. They will be followed by...

How the Electorate Changes from Presidential to Midterm Years

A higher share of white college graduates could help Democrats, but a decline in nonwhite voters could hurt them

Dear Readers: Join us tonight from 6-7 p.m. eastern for a conversation with Matthew Barzun, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom as well as Sweden. Barzun will be discussing his experiences representing the United States abroad, his work as the national finance chair for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign,...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 14, 2021

Murkowski faces weakness on her right flank; many GOP House candidates who lost close races in 2020 are jumping in again this cycle

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. This week, we’re happy to once again welcome one of our interns, Parakram Karnik, who wrote the first item below, on some of Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-AK) problems...

The Senate: Sununu’s Vital Choice

The New Hampshire governor’s decision looms large over the 2022 map

Dear Readers: Virginia lost one of its most prominent and successful political figures on Tuesday, as former Sen. John Warner (R-VA) died at the age of 94. Warner served for three decades in the Senate (1979-2009), becoming known for his expertise on military matters and growing into a role as...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 26, 2021

A silver lining for House Democrats; Democrats in good shape in NM-1 special; Republicans still clearly favored in top Florida races despite emergence of credible challengers

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The House: A silver lining for Democrats Last week’s Crystal Ball, which featured hypothetical ratings of the House that did not take...