On Wednesday, we announced the release of our new book on the recent midterm elections: The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024. What follows are a few excerpts from the book, illustrating five takeaways from the election. As a reminder, Crystal Ball readers can...
The Center for Politics’s latest book -- The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024 -- is now available. Edited by the Crystal Ball team of Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley,...
Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball will be away through the end of year. We wish all of you Happy Holidays, and we will be back the first week of January. Join us on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023 at 6:30 p.m. for an exclusive first look at our upcoming documentary on the events...
Dear Readers: Listeners to our “Politics is Everything” podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is...
Dear Readers: Join us Wednesday at 2 p.m. eastern for a Twitter Spaces featuring J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik of the Crystal Ball along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley in which we’ll recap Tuesday’s Georgia runoff and tie a bow on the 2022 election. If...
Dear Readers: The Center for Politics at UVA will hold its 24th annual American Democracy Conference tonight starting at 6 p.m. Join us virtually at: https://livestream.com/tavco/adc2022 The conference will feature a pair of panels focusing on what happened in the 2022 election and looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election....
Dear Readers: Before we begin today, we wanted to express our deepest condolences over the murder of 3 UVA students -- Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr., and D’Sean Perry -- and the wounding of 2 others earlier this week. We also appreciate the many expressions of sympathy we have received...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain...
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- It will take some time to assess any possible fallout from the Pennsylvania Senate debate on Tuesday night. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) very clearly struggled. -- Early voting has begun in our pair of Senate Toss-ups, Georgia and Nevada, with inconclusive signals. --...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article looks at the 2022 Senate races and compares current trial heat data to the president’s approval rating in these states. -- Historically, in-power incumbents outperform the sitting president’s job approval. This trend is continuing in 2022, and the average of this outperformance...
Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. Lucca brings that...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We’re now less than 4 weeks from 2022’s Election Day. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New...
