The Senate: Sununu’s Vital Choice

The New Hampshire governor’s decision looms large over the 2022 map

Dear Readers: Virginia lost one of its most prominent and successful political figures on Tuesday, as former Sen. John Warner (R-VA) died at the age of 94. Warner served for three decades in the Senate (1979-2009), becoming known for his expertise on military matters and growing into a role as...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 26, 2021

A silver lining for House Democrats; Democrats in good shape in NM-1 special; Republicans still clearly favored in top Florida races despite emergence of credible challengers

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The House: A silver lining for Democrats Last week’s Crystal Ball, which featured hypothetical ratings of the House that did not take...

Notes on the State of Politics: April 20, 2021

GOP starts favored to hold OH-15 special; widening field in North Carolina Senate race; LBJ’s rise and “court packing”

Dear Readers: Over the years, the Crystal Ball has published periodic articles with the headline “Notes on the State of Politics.” These articles feature shorter, bite-sized observations about elections and politics. As a way to better serve readers, we’re planning on publishing more frequent “Notes on the State of Politics”...

Moving Past Impeachment: Trump Acquitted (Again)

Dear Readers: Less than a month into the Biden presidency, both parties are looking to the next election cycle. But before either side can be successful, they will each undoubtedly do some internal soul-searching. At 6:30 p.m. this evening, the Center for Politics will host a panel called Warring Factions,...

2022 Senate Races: Initial Ratings

On a potentially limited playing field, both parties look to expand past their current 50 seats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans will be defending more Senate seats than Democrats in 2022, but both sides have some potential pickup opportunities -- though a large gain for either party seems unlikely. -- Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) would have been an overwhelming favorite to win a third...

Senate 2022: An Early Look

Democrats may ultimately have a better shot to win the Senate than the House in two years, although winning either will be challenging

Dear Readers: Our 22nd annual American Democracy Conference is now available on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and at this direct link. It features New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie, CNN commentator Tara Setmayer, and Democratic strategist John Lapp discussing Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential race, disappointing results for Democrats down the ballot,...