Politics in the Post-Roe World

Abortion springs to the forefront but Republicans retain a strong hand

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The president’s party often struggles in midterms, although extraordinary circumstances can save them from losses. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade could be 2022’s extraordinary circumstance. -- Beyond abortion, Republicans still retain powerful political advantages. -- Democrats could get their version of...

Rating Change: GA-GOV to Leans Republican Following Kemp’s Smashing Primary Win

Incumbent faces rematch with Abrams in a more favorable cycle; other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) shellacked Donald Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) in the Georgia Republican primary on Tuesday, and we are moving the general election race from Toss-up to Leans Republican. -- The sheer size of Kemp’s win paired with Secretary of State...

The Battle for State Legislatures

Looking for competition in sorted statehouses

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After taking a first look at attorney general and secretary of state races, he is now assessing the battles for state legislatures this year. The Republicans have built a robust edge...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 5, 2022

Crystal Ball interns explore youth voting, felon disenfranchisement, civility in Congress

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to feature 3 items today from our Spring 2022 Crystal Ball interns: Sarah Pharr, Aviaé Gibson, and Alex Kellum. They write, respectively, on trends in youth voter turnout; the voter disenfranchisement of convicted felons; and the roots of the civility crisis in Congress. We thank them...

How Minority Parties (Might) Compete in One-Party States

Playing in other party’s primary or backing an independent candidate are two possible options

Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event later today (Thursday, April 28) with the ambassadors to the United States from the Baltic states. Ambassadors Audra Plepytė of Lithuania, Kristjan Prikk of Estonia, and Māris Selga of Latvia will discuss their respective nations’ relationship with the...

Abortion Battlefields in a Potentially Post-Roe Political World

Watch these states in the event of a landmark Supreme Court decision later this year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- If the Supreme Court overturns Roe vs. Wade later this year, it could hypothetically energize Democratic voters in the 2022 midterms. But it’s unclear whether abortion will become a big enough motivator for Democrats to overcome the historical pattern of unfavorable midterms for the...

The Battles for Attorney General

Surveying this year’s 30 contests across the country, including many in key swing states

Dear Readers: Last month, we announced that Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson would be analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After looking at secretary of state races, Lou is now turning his attention to attorneys general, positions that often have a fair amount of power...