What Happened in the States

Democrats picked up governorships, state legislative chambers; Republican state court victories could have redistricting implications

Dear Readers: Join us at noon eastern today for a Twitter Spaces featuring Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of the Crystal Ball and our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley. They will be discussing the continuing takeaways from the 2022 election, Donald Trump’s presidential announcement, the looming Georgia...

The (Updated) Battle for the Statehouses

Chambers in key swing states like Michigan and Nevada get more competitive

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is updating his assessment of the race for state legislative control. He has also analyzed contests for attorney general, secretary of state, state supreme court, and statewide ballot issues....

2022’s Ballot Measures

States are set to vote on a range of measures dealing with abortion, elections, marijuana, and more

Dear Readers: Join the Center for Politics next Tuesday, Oct. 18, for “Hacking Our Elections.” Center for Politics Scholar and leading election security expert Chris Krebs heads up this urgent and timely panel discussion on how the same threats that created Jan. 6 are still with us today. Joining Chris...

The Attorneys General: A Dozen Races Dot the Competitive Landscape

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is doing his second assessment of this year’s attorney general races. He has also analyzed secretary of state, state legislative, and state supreme court races. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS...

Secretary of State Races: Election Deniers Carry GOP Banner in Several Key States

Several top battlegrounds feature competitive races in these newly-prominent races

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is doing his second assessment of this year’s secretary of state races, which have taken on added importance in the aftermath of the 2020 election. He has also analyzed attorney general,...

The Republican Advance in the South — and Other Party Registration Trends

How state-level registration has changed in recent years

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Party registration can be a lagging indicator of political change, but recent changes in some states are bringing registration more in line with actual voting. -- Republicans have taken the voter registration edge in states such as Florida and West Virginia somewhat recently, and...

High Courts, High Stakes

2022’s top state supreme court races

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After taking a first look at attorney general, secretary of state, and state legislative races, he is analyzing state supreme courts this week. While there are judicial elections across the country,...

Politics in the Post-Roe World

Abortion springs to the forefront but Republicans retain a strong hand

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The president’s party often struggles in midterms, although extraordinary circumstances can save them from losses. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade could be 2022’s extraordinary circumstance. -- Beyond abortion, Republicans still retain powerful political advantages. -- Democrats could get their version of...

Rating Change: GA-GOV to Leans Republican Following Kemp’s Smashing Primary Win

Incumbent faces rematch with Abrams in a more favorable cycle; other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) shellacked Donald Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) in the Georgia Republican primary on Tuesday, and we are moving the general election race from Toss-up to Leans Republican. -- The sheer size of Kemp’s win paired with Secretary of State...

The Battle for State Legislatures

Looking for competition in sorted statehouses

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After taking a first look at attorney general and secretary of state races, he is now assessing the battles for state legislatures this year. The Republicans have built a robust edge...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 5, 2022

Crystal Ball interns explore youth voting, felon disenfranchisement, civility in Congress

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to feature 3 items today from our Spring 2022 Crystal Ball interns: Sarah Pharr, Aviaé Gibson, and Alex Kellum. They write, respectively, on trends in youth voter turnout; the voter disenfranchisement of convicted felons; and the roots of the civility crisis in Congress. We thank them...

How Minority Parties (Might) Compete in One-Party States

Playing in other party’s primary or backing an independent candidate are two possible options

Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event later today (Thursday, April 28) with the ambassadors to the United States from the Baltic states. Ambassadors Audra Plepytė of Lithuania, Kristjan Prikk of Estonia, and Māris Selga of Latvia will discuss their respective nations’ relationship with the...

Abortion Battlefields in a Potentially Post-Roe Political World

Watch these states in the event of a landmark Supreme Court decision later this year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- If the Supreme Court overturns Roe vs. Wade later this year, it could hypothetically energize Democratic voters in the 2022 midterms. But it’s unclear whether abortion will become a big enough motivator for Democrats to overcome the historical pattern of unfavorable midterms for the...

The Battles for Attorney General

Surveying this year’s 30 contests across the country, including many in key swing states

Dear Readers: Last month, we announced that Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson would be analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After looking at secretary of state races, Lou is now turning his attention to attorneys general, positions that often have a fair amount of power...