Big NY-3 Win Brings Democrats Ever Closer in the House

Breaking down the key special election; analyzing Toss-ups across the House map

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep.-elect Tom Suozzi (D, NY-3) begins the November general election as a favorite in our ratings following his impressive special election win. -- Republicans who hoped that immigration would be a superweapon for them in 2024 cannot really point to NY-3 as a validation...

The Race for the House, Part Two

Rating changes in 7 districts a mixed bag for each party; previewing the NY-3 special

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making 7 House rating changes this week, with 4 benefiting Democrats and 3 benefiting Republicans. -- Republicans continue to be closer to the magic number of 218 in our ratings than Democrats, but there are enough Toss-up races that we broadly consider...

The Race for the House, Part One

Ticket-splitting dwindling but still vital; GOP got a little more of it in key 2016/2020 races

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Any analysis of House elections needs to start with the presidential race, as voting for the former has become so intertwined with the latter. -- That said, some voters do still split their tickets, and they may decide the House majority. -- Despite worries...

The Fields Above the Graves: Louisiana 2024 Redistricting

In vintage Louisiana fashion, Democrats gain a second Louisiana seat

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Earlier this week, Gov. Jeff Landry (R-LA) signed a new House map that creates a second Black-majority seat in the state. -- The new district, stretching from Baton Rouge to Shreveport, would have favored Joe Biden by 20 points in 2020 and is Safe...

Notes on the State of Politics… and Democracy

How House retirements compare historically, plus a rating change; how Americans think about democracy

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, featuring short updates on elections and politics. First, Managing Editor Kyle Kondik assesses the latest round of House retirements and how this year’s number of incumbents running compares to recent history. Then, Contributing Editor Carah Ong...

Boebert’s District Flip

As she seeks reelection in a redder district, her current district stays Leans Republican in ratings

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Lightning rod U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R, CO-3) announced over the holidays that she would seek reelection in a redder, open seat on the other side of the state. -- The district she leaves behind, CO-3, remains rated as Leans Republican. -- A federal...

Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 13, 2023

Comparing Biden’s approval to Trump’s from four years ago; Democrats hope for a new gerrymander in New York

Dear Readers: On the latest episode of our Politics is Everything podcast, former Virginia U.S. House Reps. L.F. Payne (D) and Barbara Comstock (R) discuss a new survey on the perspectives, beliefs, and experiences of former members of Congress, with a specific focus on concerns about violence in 2024. Payne...

Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 7, 2023

The McHenry-McCarthy One-Two Punch; Santos Replacement Election Set; Georgia Remap on Our Minds

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The pending resignation of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R, CA-20) and Rep. Patrick McHenry’s (R, NC-10) retirement announcement are...

The (Continuing) Congressional Retirement Flood

As more vacancies arise, central Michigan, Long Island races come into focus

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As the calendar year draws nearer to a close, more House members have looked towards the exit. -- In Michigan, Rep. Dan Kildee (D, MI-8) would have been favored for a seventh term, but without him, his Biden +2 seat moves into the Toss-up...

The Congressional Retirement Flood

How Manchin, Spanberger, and other recent candidate declarations have (or have not) changed the competitive landscape

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) decision not to run for reelection next year pushes our rating for the West Virginia Senate race from Leans Republican to Safe Republican. -- Next door, Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7) is forgoing reelection in her Biden +7 seat to...

North Carolina Redistricting: Republicans Bring Out Their Golden Goose (again)

With new map, NC Republicans are poised for redistricting windfall

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After North Carolina’s then-Democratic state Supreme Court blocked a GOP congressional gerrymander last cycle, the new court re-opened the door to a Republican gerrymander for 2024. -- A new map that legislative Republicans approved yesterday could up their advantage in the state’s currently evenly-divided 7-7...

Notes on the State of Politics: Oct. 4, 2023

The demise of Kevin McCarthy; Alabama House rating change becomes official; honoring Doug Wilder

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The McCarthy fallout On one side of the Capitol yesterday, now-Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) became the Senate’s newest member. Appointed to replace the late Sen....

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 26, 2023

The Menendez mess in New Jersey; rating changes in a couple of open, blue House seats

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Jersey Senate: Gold bars, cash in envelopes -- and a primary challenge In 1999, then-former Gov. Edwin Edwards (D-LA), who had spent a not-insignificant...

Where Both Parties Overperform in the House, 2023 Edition

GOP edge in “excess seats” compared to 2020 presidential results expands following post-2020 redistricting, 2022 election

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Two years ago, we began looking at the states that produced “excess” House seats for one party or the other -- states for which the partisan ratio in House seats exceeds what would be predicted by the state’s presidential vote in 2020. -- Back...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2023

Trump’s beer and wine combo helps him maintain a big primary lead; Alabama’s redistricting machinations

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The Trump coalition: A case of beer plus a bottle of wine Former President Trump does not drink, but his enduring political coalition within the...