Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 26, 2023

The Menendez mess in New Jersey; rating changes in a couple of open, blue House seats

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Jersey Senate: Gold bars, cash in envelopes -- and a primary challenge In 1999, then-former Gov. Edwin Edwards (D-LA), who had spent a not-insignificant...

Where Both Parties Overperform in the House, 2023 Edition

GOP edge in “excess seats” compared to 2020 presidential results expands following post-2020 redistricting, 2022 election

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Two years ago, we began looking at the states that produced “excess” House seats for one party or the other -- states for which the partisan ratio in House seats exceeds what would be predicted by the state’s presidential vote in 2020. -- Back...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2023

Trump’s beer and wine combo helps him maintain a big primary lead; Alabama’s redistricting machinations

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The Trump coalition: A case of beer plus a bottle of wine Former President Trump does not drink, but his enduring political coalition within the...

Where People Voted in 2022 — and Where They Didn’t

The vast differences in congressional district turnout

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Despite a requirement that congressional districts have roughly identical populations within states, the number of raw votes cast in each district can vary widely, both within a state and across the country. -- In 2022, there was a nearly 300,000-vote difference between the lowest-turnout...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 13, 2023

Reichert gives Washington GOP a real gubernatorial recruit; retreads abound in House races

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Today, we’re taking a quick look at gubernatorial races in Washington and New Hampshire, as well as a flood of losing 2022 House candidates seeking redemption in 2024....

Pumping the Brakes Post-Milligan

Surveying the redistricting picture after the Supreme Court’s unexpected decision

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Supreme Court’s Allen v. Milligan decision should give Democrats at least a little help in their quest to re-take the House majority, but much remains uncertain. -- As of now, the Democrats’ best bets to add a seat in 2024 are in Alabama,...

With Protasiewicz win, Democrats flip the Wisconsin Supreme Court

Democrats notch key victory a purple state contest

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In last night’s high-stakes state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, Democratic-aligned Janet Protasiewicz comfortably dispatched former Justice Daniel Kelly, giving liberals a 4-3 majority on the court. -- Compared to some previous Democratic-aligned judges, Protasiewicz had a more “nationalized” voting coalition, although she still carried...

Republicans Retain Edge in Electoral College Tie

GOP controls bare majority of House delegations and should continue to in the next Congress

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes, the U.S. House of Representatives elected in the 2024 election would decide the presidency. -- Republicans are very likely to continue to control enough House delegations to select the GOP nominee as the winner,...

Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up

CA/NY vital for Democratic comeback; new maps in NC/OH could give Republicans a buffer

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The overall battle for House control in 2024 starts as a Toss-up. -- Relatively similar numbers of Democratic and Republican seats start in the most competitive Toss-up and Leans categories, although Republicans start with a few more targets in large part because of the...

The Political Profile of McCarthy’s Detractors

Most from uncompetitive districts; recent primary results helped build the anti-McCarthy coalition

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article is being published following the adjournment of the House on the afternoon of Wednesday, Jan. 4 after the body failed to elect a speaker on 6 roll call votes held Tuesday and Wednesday. The House was scheduled to return at 8 p.m....

McCarthy, Santos, and a Tenuous GOP Majority

Republicans make their speaker choice as a competitive battle for House control looms in 2024

Dear Readers: The event scheduled for Friday evening featuring law enforcement officers who defended the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 has been postponed. Keep your eye on this space for more information about this event and other upcoming Center for Politics programs this winter and spring. -- The Editors KEY...