A Deeper Dig into the Granite

The Trump, Haley, and Biden coalitions in the New Hampshire primary

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE —With a lull in the primary calendar, we thought we’d take a closer look at last week’s New Hampshire primary. —Nikki Haley’s town-level victories were confined almost exclusively to places that Joe Biden carried in the 2020 general election. —Although Biden showed some weakness in a...

Trump Clears the New Hampshire Hurdle

Haley can’t win the Republican nomination without Republicans; Biden avoids a Granite State slipup with write-in showing

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While one can poke some holes in Donald Trump’s New Hampshire showing, he dispatched Nikki Haley in a state friendly to her coalition. -- Haley is dominating with moderates and independents, but, as obvious as it may sound, winning conservatives and Republicans is the...

A Roadmap for the New Hampshire GOP Primary

Where to look if the Granite State contest is too close to call

Dear Readers: As we look ahead to next week’s New Hampshire primary, we are pleased to feature a piece from our friend Dante Scala of the University of New Hampshire, who identifies the key places to watch in next week’s Republican contest. We also spoke with Dante about New Hampshire...

Big Iowa Win Confirms Trump’s Stranglehold on GOP

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The polls were basically correct in Iowa, as Donald Trump dominated the kickoff caucus. -- Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley finished second and third, respectively, in a scramble for second, but they were both so far behind Trump—about 30 points apiece—that it was hard...

Previewing the Iowa Caucus

A brief history of the Hawkeye State’s caucus, and some areas to watch

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Monday night’s Iowa Republican caucus kicks off the presidential nominating season. -- The caucus has a spotty history of voting for the eventual nominee, particularly on the Republican side, although Donald Trump is a big favorite both in Iowa and nationally. Ron DeSantis is...

The Presidential Race at the Dawn of a New Year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Despite bad polling and clear weaknesses for President Biden, we are sticking with our initial Electoral College ratings from the summer, which show him doing better than what polls today would indicate, even as there are enough Toss-up electoral votes to make the election...

Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 13, 2023

Comparing Biden’s approval to Trump’s from four years ago; Democrats hope for a new gerrymander in New York

Dear Readers: On the latest episode of our Politics is Everything podcast, former Virginia U.S. House Reps. L.F. Payne (D) and Barbara Comstock (R) discuss a new survey on the perspectives, beliefs, and experiences of former members of Congress, with a specific focus on concerns about violence in 2024. Payne...

The GOP Primary: Lowest-Hanging Fruit Remains Out of Reach for Trump Rivals

Rising Haley has work to do even with college-educated voters, not to mention Trump’s strong non-college base

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican primary race. -- Despite some recent movement toward Nikki Haley, Trump’s rivals are not doing even close to well enough with college-educated Republicans—a group that is not as pro-Trump as Republicans who do not hold a four-year...

Putting Biden’s Troubles with Young Voters in Perspective

Youngest voters have been strongly Democratic in recent elections, but the president also has clear weaknesses with that group

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recent 2024 presidential polling has shown President Biden performing poorly with young voters. -- The 18-29 voting bloc has been reliably Democratic leaning for at least the last several presidential elections. -- Biden’s weakness with young voters is not new, despite doing well among...

Book Excerpt: Party of the People

New book explores the opportunities for Republicans among nonwhite voters

Dear Readers: Today we are featuring an excerpt from Patrick Ruffini’s new book, Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP. Ruffini, a Republican pollster and cofounder of the firm Echelon Insights, meticulously tracks the political changes in the wake of Donald Trump’s ascension to the...

The Third Party Wild Card

Recent non-major party vote strongest out west -- and not in the states likeliest to decide 2024

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Potentially weak major party nominees paired with a long list of third party candidates could lead to a higher-than-usual level of third party voting in 2024. -- Recent third party performance has generally been strongest in western states and weakest in the South. --...

Center for Politics Study: Partisan Desires Override Support for Constitutional Freedoms and American Values

Deep-seated distrust persists among political factions; Biden narrowly edges Trump in potential 2024 showdown

A new national study by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia reveals a stunning number of Americans endorsing policies that could challenge the U.S. Constitution, even as a majority express a preference for democracy over other forms of governance. This study of 2,008 U.S. registered voters conducted...

2024 GOP Rivals Teaming Up on the Ticket? Don’t Bet on It

That and other historical lessons on the race for the VP nomination

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- History suggests that whoever wins the Republican presidential nomination is unlikely to choose one of their rivals for the nomination as his or her running mate. -- This has happened on occasion in the recent past -- including Joe Biden selecting Kamala Harris as...

Trump and Biden Seek Historic Combined Sweep

Despite weaknesses, they could be the first-ever pair of modern nominees to each win every nominating contest

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Despite weak overall favorability, Joe Biden and Donald Trump could combine for the strongest presidential nominating performance in modern history. -- Since the advent of the current nominating system in each party, which dates to the early 1970s, at least one of the two...

Why Haven’t We Had A Woman President?

Dear Readers: We will be reacting to Wednesday night’s second Republican presidential primary debate on the “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Like so many other female politicians, Nikki Haley faces...