Dear Readers: Join us on Monday, April 3 for “Drawing the Lines: Political Cartoons in the Digital Age,” a conversation with 4 of the nation’s top political cartoonists. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will moderate the discussion with Lalo Alcaraz, winner of the 2022 Herblock Prize and two-time...
Category: 2024 President
The Transformation of the American Electorate
Race, education, and partisanship from Reagan to Biden
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The American electorate has changed dramatically over the past 40 years, and a pair of factors -- race and education -- have driven the changes. -- The electorate has become more diverse and more highly educated. Democrats rely heavily on nonwhite voters and...
The Republican Presidential Primary: Still Early, but Maybe Getting Late
The field remains unformed, but if DeSantis is the real deal, there’s not much room for other challengers to Trump
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The calendar year before the presidential primary voting begins is often defined by winnowing, as contenders emerge and then fade. -- But Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are taking up so much oxygen that we may already have the top contenders, with everyone else...
Republicans Retain Edge in Electoral College Tie
GOP controls bare majority of House delegations and should continue to in the next Congress
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes, the U.S. House of Representatives elected in the 2024 election would decide the presidency. -- Republicans are very likely to continue to control enough House delegations to select the GOP nominee as the winner,...
Both White and Nonwhite Democrats are Moving Left
Race, party, and ideological congruence in the American electorate
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- One of the big stories of American politics over the past half-century has been a growing ideological divide between Democrats and Republicans. -- This has also led to more ideological cohesion within parties, including a dramatic increase among Democrats between 2012 and 2020. Democrats are...
The State of Biden’s Next Campaign
The president has little real opposition in his own party but remains dependent on weaknesses across the aisle
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Biden’s successful State of the Union address suggested he’s full speed ahead on running for a second term. -- Despite polls showing that even many Democrats would prefer Biden not to run again, he has no real opposition within his own party -- and...
Will Trump Succeed?
Assessing his 2022 record and 2024 chances
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Donald Trump’s bid for a third Republican presidential nomination opens the 2024 presidential election. -- The former president achieved only limited victories in the 2022 national and state elections. -- But the structure of the Republican party provides him with many institutional advantages in...
The Electoral College in the 21st Century
A brief history of a competitive era
Dear Readers: Join the Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik, J. Miles Coleman, and Carah Ong Whaley for a Twitter Spaces at 2 p.m. eastern today. They will be wrapping up the best and worst moments from politics in 2022, and listeners will also get the chance to answer trivia questions and...
The End of a Golden Age?
Why elections are increasingly difficult to predict
Dear Readers: We’re excited to feature an essay from a distinguished UVA alumnus, David Peyton, on the challenges election prognosticators face in an unstable and fast-changing geopolitical environment. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- American elections are becoming harder to predict. -- Part of this is likely...
How Minority Parties (Might) Compete in One-Party States
Playing in other party’s primary or backing an independent candidate are two possible options
Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event later today (Thursday, April 28) with the ambassadors to the United States from the Baltic states. Ambassadors Audra Plepytė of Lithuania, Kristjan Prikk of Estonia, and Māris Selga of Latvia will discuss their respective nations’ relationship with the...
The Politics of the Nation’s Fastest-Growing Counties
Trends help illuminate how their states have changed over the past decade, particularly in Florida and Texas
Dear Readers: Join the UVA Center for Politics later today (Thursday, March 31) for a virtual panel, “Domestic Terrorism: How Vulnerable Are We?” The virtual forum will be streaming at https://livestream.com/tavco/uvacfp-domesticterrorism from 6:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. eastern. Former United States Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and...
Are Latinos Deserting the Democratic Party? Evidence from the Exit Polls
Democratic share of the Latino vote has been highly variable from election to election
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump performed better in 2020 with Latino voters than he did in 2016, particularly in places like South Texas and South Florida. -- However, an analysis of the longer-term trend in...
Gas Prices and Presidential Approval
There is some connection historically, but that connection is getting weaker
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Joe Biden and his party are struggling amidst myriad challenges, including high gas prices. Gas prices have spiked in recent weeks following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. -- There is some association between higher gas prices and lower presidential approval, although the connection...
The “Big Sort” Continues, with Trump as a Driving Force
Number of blowout counties spiked in 2016, endured in 2020
Dear Readers: UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato recently interviewed Jonathan Karl of ABC News and Rep. Ro Khanna (D, CA-17) about, respectively, their new books Betrayal: The Final Act of the Trump Show and Dignity in a Digital Age: Making Tech Work for All of Us. If...
Harris Should Look Back to Gore for Her Roadmap
Achieve in the executive, accomplish going abroad, attract allies at home
Dear Readers: Just like President Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris has had a challenging first year in office. Her approval rating, as calculated by FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, is in the low 40s, just like Biden’s, and she has attracted negative headlines for both some uninspiring public performances as well as...