Why Haven’t We Had A Woman President?

Dear Readers: We will be reacting to Wednesday night’s second Republican presidential primary debate on the “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Like so many other female politicians, Nikki Haley faces...

How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part Two

Trend from 1996-2020 shows a much larger partisan gap between bigger and smaller counties, with 2000 and 2016 as key contributors

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020. -- The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap. -- While there is nearly a 40-point difference...

Notes on the State of Politics: Aug. 31, 2023

Why Ohio is not a bellwether for 2024; the dangers posed by Generative AI in the looming campaign

Dear Readers: Before we begin today, we wanted to share an offer from our friend Taegan Goddard, who runs Political Wire. Crystal Ball readers can get 20% off a site membership using this link. We highly recommend the site as a place to catch up on the latest political news....

How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part One

Just 151 out of 3,100+ counties cast half the national vote; gap between top and bottom half expanding

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we discuss the third indictment of former President Trump as well as today’s Crystal Ball article. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Just about 150...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2023

Trump’s beer and wine combo helps him maintain a big primary lead; Alabama’s redistricting machinations

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The Trump coalition: A case of beer plus a bottle of wine Former President Trump does not drink, but his enduring political coalition within the...

A Brief History of Electoral College Bias

GOP had big edge in 2020, although it has bounced around in the postwar period

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The tipping point state in a presidential election is the state that gets the winning candidate over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. -- In the last two presidential elections, the tipping point state was Wisconsin. -- In the postwar era, the tipping...

Electoral College Ratings: Expect Another Highly Competitive Election

Small edge to Democrats but neither side over 270 to start

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our initial 2024 Electoral College ratings start with just four Toss-up states. -- Democrats start with a small advantage, although both sides begin south of what they need to win. -- We consider a rematch of the 2020 election -- Joe Biden versus Donald...

Just How “Electable” is Trump, Anyway?

With the challengers and indictments lining up, Republican voters show few signs of defecting from MAGA

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to welcome polling expert Natalie Jackson back to the Crystal Ball this week. She explores Donald Trump’s continued strength in the GOP despite a recent indictment. We also urge you to listen to our recent Politics is Everything podcast episode with Natalie, where we discussed Trump,...

Plotting the GOP’s Most Efficient Electoral College Pathways

How the 2020 map provides a template for 2024

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In 2020, Donald Trump would have needed to flip 37 additional Electoral College votes to reach 269, thereby winning an effective majority in the Electoral College, thanks to a likely Republican advantage if the Electoral College produces a tied outcome. -- The 2024 Electoral...

Leaning Into State Trends: The Midwest and Interior West

The two regions have four Biden-won states that will be key in 2024

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020. -- In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans....

Notes on the State of Politics: May 2, 2023

Biden and New Hampshire; Safe ratings endure for new open-seat races in Maryland and Washington

Biden may pass on New Hampshire test While it would not rank that high on the all-time list of ways in which the Donald Trump experience did not correspond with history, Trump’s electoral performance in 2020 was unusual in that he lost reelection despite a very strong showing in his...