KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) decision not to run for reelection next year pushes our rating for the West Virginia Senate race from Leans Republican to Safe Republican. -- Next door, Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7) is forgoing reelection in her Biden +7 seat to...
Category: 2024 Senate
Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 26, 2023
The Menendez mess in New Jersey; rating changes in a couple of open, blue House seats
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Jersey Senate: Gold bars, cash in envelopes -- and a primary challenge In 1999, then-former Gov. Edwin Edwards (D-LA), who had spent a not-insignificant...
Notes on the State of Politics: June 7, 2023
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Hampshire and Democrats’ search for a gubernatorial target Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) did something a little unusual for a Republican these days -- he decided...
Notes on the State of Politics: May 2, 2023
Biden and New Hampshire; Safe ratings endure for new open-seat races in Maryland and Washington
Biden may pass on New Hampshire test While it would not rank that high on the all-time list of ways in which the Donald Trump experience did not correspond with history, Trump’s electoral performance in 2020 was unusual in that he lost reelection despite a very strong showing in his...
How the Other Half Votes: Manchin and Tester’s Challenge
Democratic Senate coalitions in red presidential states Montana and West Virginia
Dear Readers: Join us at 10:30 eastern this morning for a conversation with the Honorable Mark Brzezinski, Ambassador of the United States to Poland. The ambassador will discuss the latest issues impacting Poland and the U.S. with particular emphasis on the war in Ukraine. This virtual event will be streaming...
The Senate Primaries to Watch So Far
Incumbents have had a lot of primary success lately
Dear Readers: Join us next Wednesday, Feb. 22 for “A Conversation with Former/Future Republicans Bill Kristol and David Ramadan.” Kristol, a longtime political commentator, and Ramadan, a Center for Politics scholar and former member of the Virginia House of Delegates, will discuss the past and future of the Republican...
The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting
Over two decades, double-digit overperformances have become far less common
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common. -- Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead...
Initial Senate Ratings: Democrats Have a Lot of Defending to Do
Four seats in Democratic majority start as Toss-up or worse
Dear Readers: Please join us this week for a pair of special Center for Politics forums, both of which are free and open to the public and will also be livestreamed. Today (Tuesday, Jan. 24) at 4 p.m., we will host the ambassador of Chile, Juan Gabriel Valdés, at the...
Michigan’s Open Senate Seat: Democrats’ Swing State Retirement Drought Ends
But they start as favorites to defend the seat
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-MI) decision to retire at the end of her term gives Democrats a liability they have not had in the last few Senate cycles: An open seat to defend in a key presidential battleground. -- They arguably have a second in...