This Year’s Key Attorney General and Secretary of State Races

Battleground states North Carolina and Pennsylvania lead the list

Dear Readers: Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson covers state-level races for the Crystal Ball, and he is back this week with an updated look at this year’s elections for state attorneys general and secretaries of state. The Crystal Ball does not issue formal race ratings for these races as part of...

Notes on the State of the 2023 Elections

VA 2023 looks a lot like 2019; ads might help explain a PA oddity; Beshear and disaster relief

Dear Readers: We wish all of you a Happy Thanksgiving; the Crystal Ball will not be publishing next week. Before we move full speed into assessing 2024, we wanted to take a quick look back at a few notable findings from last week’s elections -- specifically in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and...

Elections 2023: Democrats Enjoy a Strong Night

They score victories in five of the six key races we were watching, although off-year elections do not necessarily predict the following year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats won five of the six key races we were watching in Tuesday night’s elections, turning in a strong showing just a couple of days after a series of bad polls for President Joe Biden left some Democrats shook as the presidential race looms...

Ohio Abortion Vote Leads List of Key 2023 Statewide Ballot Issues

Marijuana, tax, and energy policy to be decided by voters in several states

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In six states this November, voters will be asked to weigh in on statewide ballot measures. -- Four states contributed to our list of key measures this year: Colorado, Ohio, Maine, and Texas. More limited measures are on the ballot in Louisiana and New...

The Race for Virginia’s Legislature, Part Two

The pivotal state Senate and House of Delegates races that will decide the majority

Dear Readers: This is Part Two of our series previewing the races for the Virginia state legislature. In Part One, we looked at the big-picture stakes and trends. Today, we go through the districts that we think will decide the chamber, including 10 in the House and 6 in the...

The Battle for the Virginia State Legislature, Part One

Democratic presidential lean muted in lower-turnout legislative races, but political environment appears to be different than 2021

Dear Readers: This is the first of a two-part Crystal Ball series on this November’s state legislative elections in Virginia. Today’s piece looks at the overall electoral picture, and Part Two will identify and analyze the key districts that will decide the majorities. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS...

The Republicans’ ‘Excess Seat’ Edge in State Legislatures

Republicans punch above their weight compared to presidential results in more places than Democrats

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we talk with the author of today’s Crystal Ball piece -- Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson -- about his article today on “excess seats” in state legislatures as well as his journalism career with PolitiFact, House Republicans’ recently-announced impeachment...

Ohio’s Issue 1 Smackdown

The left scores another win in an abortion rights proxy fight; apparent turnout and persuasion edge drives Democratic success

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The pro-abortion rights/Democratic side won yet another fight related to abortion rights on Tuesday night, this time in red-trending Ohio. -- Turnout was robust and likely advantaged the Democratic side. Voter participation was relatively poor across Appalachia, a once-competitive area that has become extremely Republican...

The 2023 and 2024 Attorney General and Secretary of State Races

Amidst several safe-state races with key primaries, competitive contests in North Carolina and Pennsylvania loom

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, the Crystal Ball’s J. Miles Coleman, Kyle Kondik, and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the results from Tuesday night’s Virginia state legislative primaries and look ahead to the closely-contested battle for control of both chambers coming up this fall....

A First Look at 2024 State Supreme Court Contests

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The fate of Wisconsin's state supreme court will be decided next month. -- About two-thirds of the states will have supreme court elections next year. -- Key states with supreme court elections to watch in 2024 include Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, and Ohio....