Notes on the State of Politics: June 22, 2022

House rating changes in Virginia, California, and Alaska

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Barring an unexpected development, this is going to be the only issue of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back next week with a reaction to next...

Notes on the State of the Primaries: June 8, 2022

Rating changes in Iowa, Oregon House races; highlights from a busy Tuesday night of primaries

Dear Readers: Join us tonight at 6 p.m eastern for a free, virtual panel featuring top analysts and experts previewing the beginning of the House’s Jan. 6 Select Committee’s public hearings. The virtual event will be streaming at https://livestream.com/tavco/jan6committeehearings. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will host the...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 18, 2022

Pennsylvania governor moves to Leans Democratic following primary; other reactions to Tuesday night’s results

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The race for the Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination remains uncalled, and it will remain a Toss-up in our ratings...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2022

New York’s looming House specials; a nationalized West Virginia primary; Nebraska governor

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New York: No map, but 2 special elections The last few months have not been especially kind to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). Shortly after she...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 5, 2022

Crystal Ball interns explore youth voting, felon disenfranchisement, civility in Congress

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to feature 3 items today from our Spring 2022 Crystal Ball interns: Sarah Pharr, Aviaé Gibson, and Alex Kellum. They write, respectively, on trends in youth voter turnout; the voter disenfranchisement of convicted felons; and the roots of the civility crisis in Congress. We thank them...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 30, 2022

Two more looming House special elections; redistricting updates

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Special elections imminent in Nebraska, Texas With the congressional primary season schedule already poised to start heating up in May, 2 new elections will soon...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 2, 2022

TX-28 to Toss-up; national House vote in midterms; the new OK Senate race

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) Leans Democratic Toss-up Texas primary takeaways We’d say the...

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 23, 2022

Washington a GOP Senate sleeper; rating Rhode Island; special House elections in MN-1 & CA-22; looking for Democratic slippage in South Texas

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Patty Murray (D-WA) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Washington Senate to Likely Democratic While...

Democrats’ Position Improves in Redistricting Tally

Breaking down new maps in New York, Tennessee

  Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow, Wednesday, Feb. 9, as Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviews Rep. Ro Khanna (D, CA-17) about Khanna’s new book, Dignity in a Digital Age: Making Tech Work for All of Us. The program will run from 6:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. eastern time....

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 2, 2022

Can Republicans play in deep blue Senate seats? New maps in HI, SC (and NY)

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Are any deep blue Senate seats in danger for Democrats? As Democrats attempt to defend their Senate majority, they hold 4 seats that both sides...

Notes on the State of Politics: Jan. 26, 2022

Warning signs in South TX for Democrats, Iowa looking redder, two new state maps

Dear Readers: On Thursday, Jan. 27 from 2-3 p.m., the University of Virginia Center for Politics and the UVA Office of Global Affairs will host a virtual Ambassador Series event with His Excellency Juan Carlos Pinzón, Ambassador of Colombia to the United States. You can watch here. This is the...

Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 16, 2021

Redistricting scorecard so far; the new Maryland map; and a look back on the New Jersey and Virginia results

Dear Readers: After the new year, please join us for a special University of Virginia Center for Politics event: “The Shock of Jan. 6,” commemorating the first anniversary of the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will moderate the...

Notes on the State of Politics: Nov. 18, 2021

Redistricting action out West; looking back on Sen. Patrick Leahy’s career

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Redistricting: Four western states pass maps Since the Crystal Ball’s redistricting update last week, a few more states have enacted or advanced maps -- a...

Notes on the State of Politics: September 29, 2021

OR finishes redistricting, with CO, ME, and NE close behind; many other states release drafts

Dear Readers: Later this week, the UVA Center for Politics is hosting several events that we’d encourage anyone interested in politics or history to attend. All three of the following events are free and open to the public. Tomorrow (Thursday, Sept. 30), Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will give...