Notes on the State of Politics: June 7, 2023

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Hampshire and Democrats’ search for a gubernatorial target Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) did something a little unusual for a Republican these days -- he decided...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 2, 2023

Biden and New Hampshire; Safe ratings endure for new open-seat races in Maryland and Washington

Biden may pass on New Hampshire test While it would not rank that high on the all-time list of ways in which the Donald Trump experience did not correspond with history, Trump’s electoral performance in 2020 was unusual in that he lost reelection despite a very strong showing in his...

What to Watch for in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race

Some key counties to keep track of in next week’s marquee judicial race

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In one of the biggest elections of the calendar year, a Democratic-aligned justice appears favored in next week’s Wisconsin state Supreme Court election. But that was also true in 2019, when a Republican-aligned justice pulled an upset. -- Democrats often underperform in such races...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 1, 2023

Gaming out a possible Electoral College tie; Michigan Senate race takes shape; a look back at the VA-4 special

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors How likely is an Electoral College tie? The 2020 election came fairly close to ending in an Electoral College tie. While Joe Biden won the...

Notes on the State of Politics: February 22, 2023

Wisconsin’s key state Supreme Court race; House back to full strength, but not for long

Dear Readers: Tonight’s event with Bill Kristol and David Ramadan has been postponed, although we are hoping to reschedule it for some time in the spring. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In Virginia, Democrats have held the Richmond-area 4th District with state Sen. Jennifer McClellan. Her...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 28, 2022

Contests for governor in MI, PA look more secure for Democrats

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic PA Open (Wolf, D) Leans Democratic Likely...

Notes on the State of the Primaries: Sept. 21, 2022

Senators and governors see smooth sailing in primaries, House members not as much

Dear Readers: Please join us, virtually, for a couple of special Center for Politics events this week. Today (Wednesday, Sept. 21) from 4 p.m. to 5:30 p.m., former U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Peter Prindiville, a non-resident fellow at the Stanford Constitutional Law Center, will discuss their new book, The Constitution...

Notes on the State of the Primaries: Sept. 14, 2022

New England contests conclude the 2022 primary calendar; Rating change in NH-1

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our new “Politics is Everything” podcast, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik talked to Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and a Washington Post columnist, about the mixed signals in this year’s election and some of the advantages Republicans retain despite some...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 7, 2022

House rating changes; MA-GOV to Safe Democratic; next week’s primaries

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes District Old Rating New Rating Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Safe Republican Toss-up MI-3 Open (Meijer, R) Toss-up Leans...

Notes on the State of Politics: August 24, 2022

NY rating changes after impressive Democratic special election win; OH-SEN to Leans Republican

  Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. We are making a few rating changes today, including in a pair of upstate New York House races after Democrats scored an impressive victory in a closely-watched swing...

Notes on the State of the Primaries: August 17, 2022

Recapping primaries in 3 western states; WA-SEN moves back to Safe Democratic

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Today we are taking a look at the results in 3 western states -- Alaska and Wyoming voted last night, while Washington state recently finalized the results from its...

Notes on the State of the Primaries: August 10, 2022

A narrow win for the GOP in MN-1, primaries in CT, VT, WI

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Before we begin this week, we wanted to wish our dear friend, Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz, a speedy recovery from a medical procedure he had last week....

Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2022

Previewing next week’s crowded primary slate, and looking back on Maryland

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Below, we’re taking a quick look back at last week’s Maryland primary and then a look ahead at next Tuesday’s packed primary calendar, one of the biggest of the...