Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2021

Youngkin captures Virginia GOP nomination; Minnesota under the influence of weed (parties); new report dissects the 2020 electorate

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors VA-GOV: Youngkin wins GOP nomination, race Leans Democratic for the fall Glenn Youngkin, former co-chief executive of the Carlyle Group, won the...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 3, 2021

Republicans finish ahead in TX-6; Bustos announces retirement; polarization thriving in the American electorate

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors TX-6: Democrats locked out of runoff In the Dallas area this weekend, a somewhat unexpected -- but not entirely surprising -- result...

Notes on the State of Politics: April 28, 2021

Sabato interviews Susan Page later today; checking in on the Virginia gubernatorial nomination fights; breaking down Troy Carter’s LA-2 win

Dear Readers: At 3:30 p.m. eastern today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will interview USA Today Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page about her new book, Madam Speaker: Nancy Pelosi and the Lessons of Power. To tune in, click here. If you can’t watch live, we’ll...

Notes on the State of Politics

Developments in Alaska’s gubernatorial race make it the GOP’s best pick-up target, three ratings changes in the House, and newly-appointed Sen. Jon Kyl becomes an unusual Senate two-timer

Governors: The Last Frontier’s three-cornered fight favors the Republicans On Tuesday, an important deadline came and went in Alaska’s gubernatorial race: the final day that a candidate could officially withdraw and not appear on the November ballot. Since former Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) entered the race on June 1, the...

Notes on the State of Politics

Mirror images of vulnerability; two statewide Democrats get upgrades; electoral consequences from #MeToo

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The partisan structure of the races for governorships and Senate seats are now exact mirror opposites. -- Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) get ratings upgrades. -- Rep. Elizabeth Esty’s (D, CT-5) retirement gives Republicans an upset opportunity and is another...

Notes on the State of Politics: Senate Shenanigans in Alabama and Tennessee

Reactions to the Yellowhammer State’s runoff and the first 2018 Senate retirement comes in the Volunteer State

Roy Moore’s Rolling Tide There were no surprises in Alabama on Tuesday as former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) dispatched appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) by about 10 points, 55%-45%, in the state’s Republican primary runoff. Most of the final polls in the race showed a margin...

The Electoral College: Pennsylvania Moves Toward Clinton

Key to Trump's chances, the Keystone State looks less promising for him

While there is some suggestion that Pennsylvania might be slowly trending Republican, and while it has a lot of the white, working-class voters that Donald Trump is targeting, recent polling has suggested that Hillary Clinton is obviously the favorite there right now. She leads Trump by close to seven-to-nine points...

Notes on the State of Politics

West Virginia governor: Manchin’s choice makes Republicans a narrow favorite After months of hinting that he might prefer to return home to run for a third term as governor, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) decided to stay put in the Senate. That creates an open seat in the Mountain State --...

Notes on the State of Politics

Nevada Senate after Reid’s retirement, plus two gubernatorial ratings changes and some House updates

The retirement of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) last week gives Republicans something they have been lacking in the early stages of this Senate cycle: a 50-50 shot at picking up a seat currently held by a Democrat. True, Reid’s poor approval numbers meant he was going to be...

The Surge: Our Book on 2014 & 2016 Is Available for Pre-Order

The Surge, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ postmortem of the 2014 midterms and preview of the 2016 presidential election, is now available for pre-order. Edited by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and Sabato’s Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley and published by Rowman and...

Notes on the State of Politics

The GOP’s Jayhawk blues Washington Republicans were reaching for the Pepto-Bismol Wednesday night when the already intriguing Kansas Senate race took a dramatic turn: Chad Taylor, the Democratic candidate, is leaving the race. This gives independent businessman Greg Orman a clean shot at incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R). It’s been...

Notes on the State of Politics

Reaction to third-party piece In an article on the topic last week, we asked readers to chime in with other races where they thought third-party and independent candidates might have an impact on some statewide races. We got a lot of e-mails and tweets about the gubernatorial and Senate contests...

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

House ratings changes, next week's primaries and Center for Politics wins an Emmy

House ratings changes A race-by-race analysis, as well as history, suggests Republicans are in line to make a small, mid-to-high single-digit addition to their majority, but there’s been little movement one way or the other in most races or in the overall climate. We’re planning to take a fuller look...

Notes on the State of Politics: Primary Edition

National Republicans get their men (and women) The key takeaway from Tuesday night’s primaries, and the primary season in general so far, is that national Republican leaders are getting the general election nominees they want in key races. What they do with those nominees in the fall remains to be...

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

Arkansas now a Toss-up It’s become clear over the past few months that Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR), despite the increasing Republican lean of his state, has been holding his own, or better, against Rep. Tom Cotton (R, AR-4). Several positive polls for the incumbent, including a too-optimistic 11-point lead from...