Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The McCarthy fallout On one side of the Capitol yesterday, now-Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) became the Senate’s newest member. Appointed to replace the late Sen....
Category: Notes on state of pol
Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 26, 2023
The Menendez mess in New Jersey; rating changes in a couple of open, blue House seats
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Jersey Senate: Gold bars, cash in envelopes -- and a primary challenge In 1999, then-former Gov. Edwin Edwards (D-LA), who had spent a not-insignificant...
Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 13, 2023
The candidates coming back for more in key Senate races; rating Ohio’s House seats after last year’s map endures
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Repeat candidates possible in key Senate races A few months ago, we noted that one theme in this cycle’s House races has been the presence...
Notes on the State of Politics: Aug. 31, 2023
Why Ohio is not a bellwether for 2024; the dangers posed by Generative AI in the looming campaign
Dear Readers: Before we begin today, we wanted to share an offer from our friend Taegan Goddard, who runs Political Wire. Crystal Ball readers can get 20% off a site membership using this link. We highly recommend the site as a place to catch up on the latest political news....
Notes on the State of Politics: July 13, 2023
Reichert gives Washington GOP a real gubernatorial recruit; retreads abound in House races
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Today, we’re taking a quick look at gubernatorial races in Washington and New Hampshire, as well as a flood of losing 2022 House candidates seeking redemption in 2024....
Notes on the State of Politics: June 7, 2023
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Hampshire and Democrats’ search for a gubernatorial target Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) did something a little unusual for a Republican these days -- he decided...
Notes on the State of Politics: May 2, 2023
Biden and New Hampshire; Safe ratings endure for new open-seat races in Maryland and Washington
Biden may pass on New Hampshire test While it would not rank that high on the all-time list of ways in which the Donald Trump experience did not correspond with history, Trump’s electoral performance in 2020 was unusual in that he lost reelection despite a very strong showing in his...
What to Watch for in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race
Some key counties to keep track of in next week’s marquee judicial race
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In one of the biggest elections of the calendar year, a Democratic-aligned justice appears favored in next week’s Wisconsin state Supreme Court election. But that was also true in 2019, when a Republican-aligned justice pulled an upset. -- Democrats often underperform in such races...
Notes on the State of Politics: March 1, 2023
Gaming out a possible Electoral College tie; Michigan Senate race takes shape; a look back at the VA-4 special
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors How likely is an Electoral College tie? The 2020 election came fairly close to ending in an Electoral College tie. While Joe Biden won the...
Notes on the State of Politics: February 22, 2023
Wisconsin’s key state Supreme Court race; House back to full strength, but not for long
Dear Readers: Tonight’s event with Bill Kristol and David Ramadan has been postponed, although we are hoping to reschedule it for some time in the spring. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In Virginia, Democrats have held the Richmond-area 4th District with state Sen. Jennifer McClellan. Her...
Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 28, 2022
Contests for governor in MI, PA look more secure for Democrats
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic PA Open (Wolf, D) Leans Democratic Likely...
Notes on the State of the Primaries: Sept. 21, 2022
Senators and governors see smooth sailing in primaries, House members not as much
Dear Readers: Please join us, virtually, for a couple of special Center for Politics events this week. Today (Wednesday, Sept. 21) from 4 p.m. to 5:30 p.m., former U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Peter Prindiville, a non-resident fellow at the Stanford Constitutional Law Center, will discuss their new book, The Constitution...
Notes on the State of the Primaries: Sept. 14, 2022
New England contests conclude the 2022 primary calendar; Rating change in NH-1
Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our new “Politics is Everything” podcast, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik talked to Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and a Washington Post columnist, about the mixed signals in this year’s election and some of the advantages Republicans retain despite some...
Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 7, 2022
House rating changes; MA-GOV to Safe Democratic; next week’s primaries
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes District Old Rating New Rating Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Safe Republican Toss-up MI-3 Open (Meijer, R) Toss-up Leans...
Notes on the State of Politics: August 24, 2022
NY rating changes after impressive Democratic special election win; OH-SEN to Leans Republican
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. We are making a few rating changes today, including in a pair of upstate New York House races after Democrats scored an impressive victory in a closely-watched swing...