Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Hampshire and Democrats’ search for a gubernatorial target Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) did something a little unusual for a Republican these days -- he decided...
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Leaning Into State Trends: The West Coast
Also some larger observations on how all the states have trended
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The West Coast states have all been Democratic-leaning in nearly every recent presidential election. -- One exception was Oregon, which leaned slightly right of the nation in 2000, although it is now a solidly blue state. -- Looking nationally, Biden was the best-performing recent...
Liz Cheney to Serve as Professor of Practice with UVA Center for Politics
Former Congresswoman to offer guest lectures in classes and public events as well as participate in research
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia announced Wednesday that former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) has accepted an appointment to serve as a Professor of Practice with the Center for Politics. The inaugural appointment is effective immediately and will run through the conclusion of the 2023 fall semester...
JFK Records Reveal Intense Level of Secrecy by CIA During Investigation of Assassination
Hoffa Sought King’s Help in Getting Bobby Kennedy to “Lay Off”
Calling it “the tip of the iceberg,” Professor Larry J. Sabato and the Center for Politics at UVA released details today of new information discovered in records released by the National Archives last month from the collection of President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records. Among the findings was a previously...
Book Excerpt: The Republican Evolution: From Governing Party to Antigovernment Party
Dear Readers: What follows is an excerpt from veteran political scientist Kenneth Janda’s excellent new book, The Republican Evolution: From Governing Party to Antigovernment Party, 1860-2020, which was released this week by Columbia University Press. In his book, an overview of which is presented below, Janda traces the history of...
Looking Back at the 2022 Projections
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans...
Midterm 2022: Not a Referendum, But a Choice
House, Senate remain up for grabs as GOP largely underperforms
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans enjoyed a wave-style environment in a few states -- but Democrats showed impressive strength in much of the rest of the country. -- The GOP’s lack of discipline in candidate selection cost them a number of races. -- It remains too early to truly...
Center for Politics to Honor U.S. Capitol and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers with First “Defender of Democracy” Award
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police and D.C. Metropolitan Police officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Center’s first annual “Defender of Democracy” award. This year’s inaugural award recipients will be...
Center for Politics Welcomes Nine Scholars for 2022-2023 Academic Year
(CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA) – The Center for Politics at UVA announced a lineup of nine prominent journalists, public servants, and political practitioners who will serve as CFP Scholars for the 2022-2023 academic year. The CFP Scholars will teach and mentor students; offer timely analysis of political events; host unique student workshops;...
Notes on the State of Politics: August 3, 2022
Abortion rights supporters win first post-Roe ballot battle; Senate Republicans avoid a headache in Missouri; Trumpy Arizona; and more
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. After last night’s big primaries, we go state-by-state below and assess the takeaways, starting with the most notable result of the evening -- a decisive victory for abortion rights supporters...
Making Polls Work (Again)
An excerpt from G. Elliott Morris’s new history of polling
Dear Readers: We’re pleased to feature an excerpt from G. Elliott Morris’s new book, Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them. Morris is a data journalist at the Economist whose work has previously appeared in the Crystal Ball. In this excerpt, Morris addresses some of the...
The Dissipating Political Impact of Jan. 6
Trump’s standing -- and that of his party -- does not appear diminished
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A recurring theme during Donald Trump’s presidency was the emergence of seemingly very negative and very damaging stories that ultimately did not appear to do him long-term harm. -- It may be that Jan. 6, when Trump’s unsubstantiated allegations of fraud in the 2020...
New UMass Poll Shows a GOP Still in Trump’s Grip
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Seven in 10 Republicans still believe Joe Biden’s election was illegitimate. -- While almost all Democrats support law enforcement efforts to track down and prosecute those who attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, only 28% of Republicans support those efforts. -- Republicans say they...
New Hampshire: The Fallout from Sununu’s Choice
Gubernatorial race moves to Safe Republican, but GOP still lacks a top challenger to Hassan
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans are still looking for a challenger to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) after Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) surprisingly passed on running against her next year. -- Sununu’s decision to run for reelection means Republicans are heavy favorites to hold onto the New Hampshire governorship....
Next Week’s Biggest Statewide Ballot Issues
Five states feature notable issues, with possible redistricting changes in New York leading the list
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Voters in several states will be deciding significant statewide ballot issues next week. -- The most notable issues deal with topics such as gaming, energy, taxes, and more. But the one with the most national import is in New York, where voters could give...