Take a look at the table below, which illustrates changes in party control of Governorships from FDR to George W. Bush over a span of six decades (1942-2004). What do you see? As usual, it all depends on what you are looking for.
Most election years, especially in the last couple of decades, have produced remarkably little change in the overall balance of Democrats and Republicans. Nine of the eleven elections since 1984 have yielded a shift of three or fewer governorships from one party column to the other. In earlier decades, when presidential coattails and partisan identification were stronger in the electorate, Governors were tossed in or out of office along with the party tides. In the twenty-one elections from 1942-1982, almost half of them (ten total) recorded a shift of at least five, and up to eleven, Governorships per year.
All in all, a dozen elections have been memorable for gubernatorial contests since 1942: 1948, 1950, 1952, 1954, 1958, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, and 1994. The Democrats triumphed in exactly half of the twelve, and the Republicans in the other half. (Political life can be fair, over time.) All the gains and losses make sense, too. The Democrats gained statehouses in their party’s good years (such as Truman’s 1948 upset, Eisenhower’s two unhappy midterm elections, and the Watergate scandal election of 1974), while Republicans had the same luck (winning governorships in Ike’s 1952 landslide, in 1966 as a result of LBJ’s disastrous Vietnam war policies, and in 1978 because of Jimmy Carter’s waning popularity).
Much more importantly, all of the big shifts in the statehouses in the past half-century have come in midterm election years, most recently 1982, 1986, and 1994. All three years were “bad news” midterms for the incumbent White House. The recession of 1981-82 cost Ronald Reagan’s Republicans 26 U.S. House seats and seven Governorships (though the GOP kept the U.S. Senate). The 1986 midterm marked the end of Reagan’s congressional leverage, with Democrats recapturing the Senate for the first time in six years. And yet Republicans added a remarkable eight Governorships–a strange result that reminds us again of the unpredictable nature of American campaigns. The 1994 midterm was far more monochromatic, with the Democrats losing the House for the first time in 40 years, the Senate after eight years of control, and fully ten Governorships–the worst loss for either party since 1970, when the GOP took a statehouse drubbing.
Therefore, history advises us to be cautious in early predictions about gubernatorial races. Looking again at this remarkable table spanning more than six decades, we can play Las Vegas odds-maker. Historically, the probability is that Republicans, as the White House party, will lose just one to three statehouses in the net totals. But it is far from impossible that the losses will be more substantial, as in 1982, 1986, and 1994. And yes, it is even possible that the GOP will luck out as the Democrats did in 1962 and 1998, registering no statehouse losses at all. As always, in the late autumn of 2006, political eyes will be trained on the electoral seashore, scanning the horizon for the first crest of a tidal wave that may or may not come.
For more gubernatorial analysis, including commentary on every 2005 and 2006 race, visit the 2005 Governor and 2006 Governor sections of the Crystal Ball.
Table 1. Changes in Party Control of Governorships
| El. Year | Reps. Before | Dems. Before | Reps. After | Dems. After | Rep. Net | Dem. Net | President |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1942 | 21 | 27 | 24 | 24 | +3 | -3 | FDR |
| 1944 | 26 | 22 | 24 | 24 | -2 | +2 | FDR |
| 1946 | 23 | 25 | 25 | 23 | +2 | -2 | Truman |
| 1948 | 24 | 24 | 18 | 30 | -6 | +6 | Truman |
| 1950 | 18 | 30 | 25 | 23 | +7 | -7 | Truman |
| 1952 | 25 | 23 | 30 | 18 | +5 | -5 | Eisenhower |
| 1954 | 29 | 19 | 21 | 27 | -8 | +8 | Eisenhower |
| 1956 | 21 | 27 | 19 | 29 | -2 | +2 | Eisenhower |
| 1958 | 19 | 29 | 15 | 35 | -4 | +6 | Eisenhower |
| 1960 | 15 | 35 | 16 | 34 | +1 | -1 | Kennedy |
| 1962 | 16 | 34 | 16 | 34 | 0 | 0 | Kennedy |
| 1964 | 15 | 35 | 17 | 33 | +2 | -2 | Johnson |
| 1966 | 17 | 33 | 25 | 25 | +8 | -8 | Johnson |
| 1968 | 26 | 24 | 30 | 20 | +4 | -4 | Nixon |
| 1970 | 32 | 18 | 21 | 29 | -11 | +11 | Nixon |
| 1972 | 20 | 30 | 19 | 31 | -1 | +1 | Nixon |
| 1974 | 18 | 32 | 12 | 37 | -6 | +5 | Ford |
| 1976 | 12 | 37 | 11 | 38 | -1 | +1 | Carter |
| 1978 | 11 | 38 | 18 | 32 | +7 | -6 | Carter |
| 1980 | 19 | 31 | 23 | 27 | +4 | -4 | Reagan |
| 1982 | 23 | 27 | 16 | 34 | -7 | +7 | Reagan |
| 1984 | 16 | 34 | 17 | 33 | +1 | -1 | Reagan |
| 1986 | 16 | 34 | 24 | 26 | +8 | -8 | Reagan |
| 1988 | 23 | 27 | 22 | 28 | -1 | +1 | Bush |
| 1990 | 21 | 29 | 20 | 28 | -1 | -1 | Bush |
| 1992 | 20 | 28 | 18 | 30 | -2 | +2 | Clinton |
| 1994 | 20 | 29 | 30 | 19 | +10 | -10 | Clinton |
| 1996 | 32 | 17 | 32 | 17 | 0 | 0 | Clinton |
| 1998 | 32 | 17 | 31 | 17 | -1 | 0 | Clinton |
| 2000 | 30 | 18 | 29 | 19 | -1 | +1 | G.W. Bush |
| 2002 | 27 | 21 | 26 | 24 | -1 | +3 | G.W. Bush |
| 2004 | 28 | 22 | 28 | 22 | 0 | 0 | G.W. Bush |