Democratic Domination Continues


Every week it seems to get worse for House Republicans. As we will demonstrate below, we have expanded the number of possible to likely net gains for Democrats from our previous 15 to 20 to a new and rather astounding 22 to 27 seats.

The past week has been a wild one for congressional races nationwide. Some contests have gotten more competitive, and in some districts one party has even pulled away. And by “one party,” we do in fact mean “one party”–the Democrats. This week the Crystal Ball is making 33 changes to its House ratings, some of them major, and others minor. In all but two of those races the changes benefit Democrats.

The two districts resisting this week’s Blue tide are Florida’s 16th, home to scandal-plagued Democrat Tim Mahoney, and Kansas’s 2nd, where Nancy Boyda is now facing a tight toss-up race.

Let’s look at this week’s changes, with seats currently held by the GOP highlighted in Red and Democrat-held seats in Blue.

District Incumbent Previous

New Rating
AL-02 OPEN Leans R Toss-up
AZ-03 Shadegg Likely R Leans R
CA-04 OPEN Likely R Toss-up
CA-50 Bilbray Likely R Leans R
CT-04 Shays Leans R Leans D
FL-08 Keller Toss-up Leans D
FL-16 Mahoney Leans R Likely R
FL-24 Feeney Toss-up Leans D
FL-25 M. Diaz-Balart Leans R Toss-up
ID-01 Sali Likely R Leans R
IL-10 Kirk Leans R Toss-up
IN-03 Souder Safe R Leans R
KS-02 Boyda Leans D Toss-up
KY-02 OPEN Leans R Toss-up
LA-06 Cazayoux Toss-up Leans D
MD-01 OPEN Leans R Toss-up
MI-07 Walberg Toss-up Leans D
MI-09 Knollenberg Leans R Toss-up
MN-03 OPEN Toss-up Leans D
MN-06 Bachmann Safe R Toss-up
MO-06 Graves Likely R Leans R
NE-02 Terry Likely R Leans R
NJ-05 Garrett Likely R Leans R
NM-01 OPEN Toss-up Leans D
NM-02 OPEN Toss-up Leans D
NY-26 OPEN Leans R Toss-up
NC-08 Hayes Toss-up Leans D
OH-16 OPEN Toss-up Leans D
PA-03 English Leans R Toss-up
SC-01 Brown Safe R Likely R
TX-07 Culberson Likely R Leans R
WV-02 Capito Likely R Leans R
WY-AL OPEN Leans R Toss-up

Here is the total picture on our current ratings:

Republican Held Seats in Play: 58 (141 Safe/Solid R)

Likely R (9) Leans R (15) Toss-up (17) Leans D (15) Likely D (2)
FL-13 (Buchanan) AZ-03 (Shadegg) AL-02 (OPEN) AK-AL (Young) NY-13 (OPEN)
IL-18 (OPEN) CA-50 (Bilbray) CA-04 (OPEN) AZ-01 (OPEN) VA-11 (OPEN)
LA-07 (Boustany) FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart) FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart) CO-04 (Musgrave)
PA-06 (Gerlach) ID-01 (Sali) IL-10 (Kirk) CT-04 (Shays)
PA-15 (Dent) IN-03 (Souder) KY-02 (OPEN) FL-08 (Keller)
PA-18 (Murphy) MO-06 (Graves) LA-04 (OPEN) FL-24 (Feeney)
SC-01 (Brown) MO-09 (OPEN) MD-01 (OPEN) IL-11 (OPEN)
TX-10 (McCaul) NE-02 (Terry) MI-09 (Knollenberg) MI-07 (Walberg)
VA-05 (Goode) NJ-05 (Garrett) MN-06 (Bachmann) MN-03 (OPEN)
NV-02 (Heller) NJ-03 (OPEN) NC-08 (Hayes)
OH-02 (Schmidt) NJ-07 (OPEN) NM-01 (OPEN)
TX-07 (Culberson) NY-26 (OPEN) NM-02 (OPEN)
VA-02 (Drake) NY-29 (Kuhl) NV-03 (Porter)
WA-08 (Reichert) OH-01 (Chabot) NY-25 (OPEN)
WV-02 (Capito) OH-15 (OPEN) OH-16 (OPEN)
PA-03 (English)
TX-23 (Rodriguez)
PA-08 (Murphy)
PA-04 (Altmire)
OR-05 (OPEN)
WI-08 (Kagen) OH-18 (Space)
PA-10 (Carney) NY-24 (Arcuri)
NY-20 (Gillibrand) NY-19 (Hall)
MS-01 (Childers) NH-02 (Hodes)
LA-06 (Cazayoux) MN-01 (Walz)
KY-03 (Yarmuth) KS-03 (Moore)
TX-22 (Lampson) IL-14 (Foster) IN-09 (Hill)
PA-11 (Kanjorski) GA-08 (Marshall) IN-08 (Ellsworth)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter) CA-11 (McNerney) IL-08 (Bean)
KS-02 (Boyda) AZ-08 (Giffords) GA-12 (Barrow)
FL-16 (Mahoney) AL-05 (OPEN) AZ-05 (Mitchell) CT-05 (Murphy)
Likely R (1) Leans R (0) Toss-up (5) Leans D (11) Likely D (15)

Democratic Held Seats in Play: 32 (204 Safe/Solid D)

Stay tuned next week for further updates. As some races heat up and others cool off, the Crystal Ball will be there to deliver you the latest forecast.