Skip links

2028 President

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain

As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages. However, his numbers in polling averages are weaker now than a few weeks ago, driven more by an increase in disapproval than a decline in approval. Compared to his 2024 performance with certain demographic groups based on the national exit poll, Trump is overperforming the most with some typically Democratic constituencies

Kyle Kondik

How Donald Trump Changed Pennsylvania’s Electorate: Tracking Voter Registration Trends Over the Past Decade

Pennsylvania changed in the Trump era from being a somewhat Democratic-leaning state to a top presidential battleground, voting for the winning candidate in all 3 of Donald Trump’s elections. One indicator of the GOP’s growth in the state is changing voter registration patterns, as Republicans have drastically reduced the Democrats’ voter registration edge in the state in the Trump era.

Nick Field