Louisiana Senate 2004

Three Democrats and two Republicans vie for Louisiana's open seat

With Louisiana’s open primary system, the slate of candidates facing voters on Election Day isn’t as simple as one Democrat against one Republican. Any number of candidates from any party may enter the race, but to be declared the winner, one must secure a majority of votes. In a race...

Florida Senate 2004

Republican Mel Martinez faces Democrat Betty Castor

With his failed bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, Senator Bob Graham of Florida announced his retirement from the United States Senate. The political juggernaut of Florida who won his last two races for the Senate with at least 62 percent of the vote is now gone; the...

Colorado Senate 2004

Republican Pete Coors faces Democrat Ken Salazar

The race for Colorado’s open Senate seat, being vacated by republican Ben Campbell, pits Democrat Ken Salazar against Republican Pete Coors. Colorado is traditionally a Republican stronghold, but nothing could be farther from the truth this year. Most polls in the state show a close race, with the latest poll,...

Alaska Senate 2004

Republican Lisa Murkowski defends her seat against Tony Knowles

It has been thirty years since the state of Alaska elected a Democrat to the Senate, but the outcome of this year's Senate race is anything but certain for the GOP. The seat is currently held by Republican Lisa Murkowski, who was appointed by her father, Frank Murkowski, who won...

Baseball and the 2004 Election

Yesterday the political world was abuzz with talk of a potential World Series match up between the Boston Red Sox from John Kerry's home state of Massachusetts and the Houston Astros from George Bush's home state of Texas. Never has there been a team from the home state of each...

2004 as the Bizzaro Election of 1916

All the way back in May, the Crystal Ball explored the possibility of "Bush as Truman" (https://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/LJS2004052001) in order to give some historical perspective for the 2004 election. It seems like eons have passed in the political world since the beginning of the summer, and while we gear up for...

Tight as a Tick

But decisive trends emerging

George W. Bush has a slight edge in the last week of the election, but his lead is paper-thin. It must be worrisome to his campaign that he is currently lacking a 3 percent to 5 percent polling advantage in many essential battleground states. Bush may well need this beyond-the-margin-of-error...

Young People: They’re registered, but will they vote?

Recent registration efforts have mobilized young people in an unprecedented fashion. According to the recent Ipsos/GENEXT Presidential Poll (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6273246/site/newsweek/) released this week, nearly one in three registered voters under 30 have registered to vote within the past six months. The registration efforts seem to have had the most impact on...

So Close and Yet So Far

With just two weeks to go

Our title refers to two climactic realities. With just 14 days to go in this remarkable election, both candidates are close to victory, yet distant in some ways from the 270 electoral-vote finish line. Moreover, these last 14 days will seem like 14 weeks. What happens in them will determine...

The Sprint to the Finish Line

Three weeks to go

Oh, what a horse race we have on the track: two political thoroughbreds at full gallop! It is as tight as a tick, with all the excitement for which anyone could have hoped. Just three weeks remain--weeks that will fly by, but also move agonizingly slowly for those with a...

The Brutal Bottom Line

President It's all about Bush, the incumbent, especially after John Kerry's success in the first presidential debate in shifting the focus back to the performance of the Bush administration. The people will vote "thumbs up/thumbs down" based on Bush's handling of the twin challenges of a shaky economy and a...

To Repeat: Debates Matter

Over the past several weeks, your Crystal Ball has received several dozen e-mails from Bush supporters, chiding us for not declaring the election and certifying their strongly held view that President Bush was the inevitable winner. Now, to their regret and sadness, our friends on the right have their answer,...

The Old College Tie

Nobody could have predicted the political circus that ensued on Nov. 8, 2000. With Florida's 25 electoral votes hanging in the balance, a controversial Supreme Court decision ended the 36-day battle for control of the White House. Of all the close elections in the last century, only the 2000 election...

It’s Over!

No, not the presidential contest, but at long last, the nomination season for Senate, House and Governor came to an end with Hawaii the last state to cross the nomination finish line last week. This expansive nation of 50 states now takes almost nine months just to fill the party...

The Debate Debate

The candidates' representatives are hard at work debating the debates--how many there should be, the topics, the conditions, and all the rest. In this hyper-partisan year, every detail will be fought over, even though little of it will matter in the end. Debates do matter, however, and perhaps more so...