GOP Increase House Numbers

Texas redistricting and Bush coattails give Republicans an edge

Partisan redistricting and the overwhelming power of incumbency makes it such that many of the 435 House races each year are either uncontested or finished well before they begin. Texas redistricting gave the GOP an edge in this year's battle for control of the House. The five Texas House races...

Republicans Enlarge Senate Majority

GOP majority now includes 55 senators

Building on the success from the 2002 midterm elections, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 97 percent of Senate races. In the first hours of election night it was clear that Republicans would enlarge their majority in the upper chamber of Congress, but three contests gave the Crystal Ball a moment...

Bush Captures Second Term

"Tolerant" blue states and "traditional" red states continue to show their colors

It's impossible to fully understand the results of the 2004 presidential election without first reexamining the 2000 results. The map created by the Bush-Gore race illustrated the country's division into the "tolerant" Blue States and the "traditional" Red States, and appeared to be one that would stay with us for...

Four Statehouses Switch Parties

Washington battle between Gregoire and Rossi still too close to call

In eleven gubernatorial races spread out from coast to coast, the Crystal Ball accurately forecast at least nine, with the match up between Democratic State Attorney General Christine Gregoire and Republican State Senator Dino Rossi still too close to call and possibly headed for a recount. So far the lone...

The Final Predictions

As we conclude this amazing election campaign, we have just one question for our readers: When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never--at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s. So George W....

Wisoncsin Senate 2004

Democrat Russ Feingold defends his seat against Tim Michels

For years, Senator Russ Feingold has proven himself as a tenacious underdog who has always beat the odds. He squeaked his way through a three-way Democratic primary with less money than his opponents by using quirky, catchy television ads as his two opponents tore each other apart. He then went...

South Dakota Senate 2004

Democrat Tom Daschle defends his seat against John Thune

Aside from Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle sits atop the Republican hit list in this electoral cycle. Republicans eye him as the front man for obstructing their legislation and judicial nominees in the Senate. Now, they have a strong candidate gunning for Daschle, former Congressman...

South Carolina Senate 2004

Republican Jim DeMint faces Democrat Inez Tenenbaum

With the retirement of Senator Ernest "Fritz" Hollings, the Republican Party has been poised to take this seat in one of the most conservative states in the union. After a tight primary that led to a runoff, the ball was handed to Representative Jim DeMint and the field was wide...

Pennsylvania Senate 2004

Republican Arlen Specter defends his seat against Joe Hoeffel

In a state so closely divided, Republican Arlen Specter's bid for reelection against Democratic challenger Joe Hoeffel has important implications for Pennsylvania, the make-up of the Senate, and possibly the presidential election. Specter had earlier in the year encountered some rough going on the campaign trail with a very close...

Oklahoma Senate 2004

Republican Tom Coburn faces Democrat Brad Carson

With the retirement of Republican senator Don Nickles, an interesting contest has broken out between two self-described outsiders: physician and former Representative Tom Coburn for the Republicans, and Representative Brad Carson for the Democrats. Several factors have nudged this race left and right, but have eventually leveled out right down...

North Carolina Senate 2004

Republican Richard Burr faces Democrat Erskine Bowles

With the upcoming Nov. 2 elections, Tar Heels have more on their minds than the presidential race. John Kerry's running mate, Senator John Edwards, who upon accepting his vice-presidential bid vacated his seat in the Senate, leaves North Carolina voters with a choice between two replacements: Democrat Erskine Bowles and...

Missouri Senate 2004

Republican Kit Bond defends his seat against Nancy Farmer

Missourians, as you may have heard from pundits, have the unique ability to refer to their home as a "microcosm" of American Politics—at least in presidential races. For over the past century, Missouri voters have sided correctly with every presidential contest victor, save one: Adlai Stevenson in 1956. The balanced...

Louisiana Senate 2004

Three Democrats and two Republicans vie for Louisiana's open seat

With Louisiana’s open primary system, the slate of candidates facing voters on Election Day isn’t as simple as one Democrat against one Republican. Any number of candidates from any party may enter the race, but to be declared the winner, one must secure a majority of votes. In a race...

Florida Senate 2004

Republican Mel Martinez faces Democrat Betty Castor

With his failed bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, Senator Bob Graham of Florida announced his retirement from the United States Senate. The political juggernaut of Florida who won his last two races for the Senate with at least 62 percent of the vote is now gone; the...

Colorado Senate 2004

Republican Pete Coors faces Democrat Ken Salazar

The race for Colorado’s open Senate seat, being vacated by republican Ben Campbell, pits Democrat Ken Salazar against Republican Pete Coors. Colorado is traditionally a Republican stronghold, but nothing could be farther from the truth this year. Most polls in the state show a close race, with the latest poll,...