Sabato’s Three Laws of Political Motion”

As Candidates Fall Faster than Newton's Apple

Now that John Kerry has won clear victories in Tennessee and Virginia, on top of his resounding triumphs over the weekend in Michigan, Washington State, and Maine, the junior U.S. senator from Massachusetts is the presidential nominee-presumptive of the Democratic Party. Yes, he could make a terrible gaffe, or there...

The Mesmerizing Dance of “Mr. Mo Mentum”

With John Kerry's big victories tonight in five of the seven states on Groundhog Tuesday (name courtesy of The Hotline), we are struck again by the amazing power of winning to beget more winning. A few weeks ago, Kerry had only shadow organizations in most of these states and was...

HATE: The Common DEMnominator

More Powerful in Politics than Love, It's Driving this Democratic Nominating Contest: And The Bush White House May Be Ignoring That, At Its Peril

For those of us old enough to remember the long and winding career of Richard Nixon, a strange parallel is beginning to emerge. Presidents are almost always disliked by members of the other major political party, but in American history only a few are truly hated by a large number...

Iowa: The Instant Analysis

In the wee hours of Jan. 20, 2004, one year to Inauguration Day… After a three year build-up, the results are in, and friends, it's a whole new campaign! Turnout total: early estimates near 125,000 So what does it mean?KERRY = COMEBACK KID John Kerry has earned the 2004 title...

So Who’ll Be the Veep?

We know, we know. The Democrats haven't even selected their presidential nominee yet, and already the Crystal Ball is speculating wildly about THE VEEP PICK. But please consider two points in our defense. First, our presidential ratings haven't changed very much from last month (Howard Dean still well in front...

John Kerry

Democratic Nominee

In the spring of 2003, many Democratic party insiders, when forced to name the "real" frontrunner, picked John Kerry. It's obvious why. He's fairly experienced (on his fourth Senate term), a Vietnam vet, matinee-idol handsome, and policy polished. Did we mention fabulously wealthy, thanks to his second marriage to Teresa...

George W. Bush

Republican Nominee

President Bush is currently unopposed for the GOP nomination.Biography George W. Bush was sworn into office January 20, 2001, after a hotly contested race for the White House in 2000. He grew up in Midland and Houston, Texas, received a bachelor's degree from Yale University, then served in the Texas...

The Four North Stars of Presidential Politics

Bush solidifies position for 2004; Kerry solidifies frontrunner post for Dems

The past few months have been eventful and significant in the race for the White House. For George W. Bush, every indicator of political success except Iraq has been looking up. Just glance at these widely acknowledged Four North Stars of Presidential Politics:ECONOMY Almost all measures suggest the economy is...

Executive Decision

The Presidency and the Governorships

The Democratic Crystal Ball Formula Candidate debates? So far, they’ve been sound and fury, signifying nothing. The real campaign is a set of very different numbers, and the Crystal Ball has crunched them. Your Crystal Ball has been studying history for decades, and puzzling over the current race for president...

Competition vs. Division

Bush Popularity Dive Several recent national surveys have had President Bush slipping to his all-time job-approval low, such as the CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll released Sep. 22 that had Bush at just the 50 percent approval level. Is this unusual, a product of the lagging employment rate and the disaster in...

Labor Day – One Year Out

As we look to the final year of this eternal presidential election, the Crystal Ball gets right down to it. The Democratic field has already sorted itself out, and while that field will almost certainly reconstitute itself in various permutations between now and the determination of the nomination in February...

The D.C. Primary – An Ignored Piece of the Puzzle

Thanks to some very sharp and persuasive Crystal Ball readers – especially Chuck Thies, Sean Tenner, and John Capozzi – we have been encouraged to think through the implications of the D.C. primary, scheduled on Jan. 13, 2004, before Iowa (Jan. 19) and New Hampshire (Jan. 27). Of course, we...

The Old College Try: Republican-Style

In the June 2003 Crystal Ball, we manipulated the Electoral College to find a way for Democrats to compete, and potentially win, in November 2004. In this month's Crystal Ball musing, we turn the tables. How should George W. Bush approach his old friend, the Electoral College? The president has...

The Old College Try

With less than 18 months to go before Election Day 2004, what does the Electoral College picture look like? Wait, you say. How could even the Crystal Ball pretend to have a fix on electoral votes this far out? The answer is simple: Because of the polarization of the Red...

The Home State Hurdle

As 2004 approaches, Democrats have plenty of factors to consider as they choose a nominee to take on President Bush. Surely, one of these is to avoid repeating the most embarrassing aspect of election night 2000. No, not the razor-thin loss in Florida, but Al Gore's solid defeat in his...