The Crystal Ball has looked anew at the races for Senate, House, and Governor in '04. Not surprisingly, as the race for president has become very competitive, the Senate looks less like a slam-dunk for the Republicans. There are only a handful of real races, as usual, and presidential coattail...
What a difference a letter makes: E or I. John Kerry has to contend with Ralph Nader in November, and even in his diminished political state, it is possible that the longtime consumer advocate will make a difference in the election. Still, the Crystal Ball guesses that Nader will receive...
Take a look at the Crystal Ball's latest analysis of John Kerry's likely choices for vice president and the table of other possible Veeps. Look at our new Kerry Veep leader: Indiana U.S. Sen. and two-term Gov. Evan Bayh. Why? All the buzz today is about John Edwards filling out...
Understandably, everybody is convinced that the November election will be another squeaker like 2000. Maybe it will be -- but history suggests otherwise. The last time the United States had two extremely close presidential elections in a row was in the 1880s. In 1884, Grover Cleveland (D) defeated James G....
You have to go back to the Southern Super Tuesday of early March 1988 to find a primary day as BIG as this one, both in geographic spread and political impact. Only Georgia represents the South, while three behemoths dominate the voting: California, New York, and Ohio (the latter state...
Your Crystal Ball started off the New Year by looking at possible Democratic vice presidential candidates. It's time for an update because much has changed, not least the fact that we have a better idea of the likely identity of the presidential nominee. Who can best help John Kerry, and...
Now that John Kerry has won clear victories in Tennessee and Virginia, on top of his resounding triumphs over the weekend in Michigan, Washington State, and Maine, the junior U.S. senator from Massachusetts is the presidential nominee-presumptive of the Democratic Party. Yes, he could make a terrible gaffe, or there...
With John Kerry's big victories tonight in five of the seven states on Groundhog Tuesday (name courtesy of The Hotline), we are struck again by the amazing power of winning to beget more winning. A few weeks ago, Kerry had only shadow organizations in most of these states and was...
For those of us old enough to remember the long and winding career of Richard Nixon, a strange parallel is beginning to emerge. Presidents are almost always disliked by members of the other major political party, but in American history only a few are truly hated by a large number...
In the wee hours of Jan. 20, 2004, one year to Inauguration Day… After a three year build-up, the results are in, and friends, it's a whole new campaign! Turnout total: early estimates near 125,000 So what does it mean?KERRY = COMEBACK KID John Kerry has earned the 2004 title...
We know, we know. The Democrats haven't even selected their presidential nominee yet, and already the Crystal Ball is speculating wildly about THE VEEP PICK. But please consider two points in our defense. First, our presidential ratings haven't changed very much from last month (Howard Dean still well in front...
In the spring of 2003, many Democratic party insiders, when forced to name the "real" frontrunner, picked John Kerry. It's obvious why. He's fairly experienced (on his fourth Senate term), a Vietnam vet, matinee-idol handsome, and policy polished. Did we mention fabulously wealthy, thanks to his second marriage to Teresa...
President Bush is currently unopposed for the GOP nomination.Biography George W. Bush was sworn into office January 20, 2001, after a hotly contested race for the White House in 2000. He grew up in Midland and Houston, Texas, received a bachelor's degree from Yale University, then served in the Texas...
The past few months have been eventful and significant in the race for the White House. For George W. Bush, every indicator of political success except Iraq has been looking up. Just glance at these widely acknowledged Four North Stars of Presidential Politics:ECONOMY Almost all measures suggest the economy is...
The Democratic Crystal Ball Formula Candidate debates? So far, they’ve been sound and fury, signifying nothing. The real campaign is a set of very different numbers, and the Crystal Ball has crunched them. Your Crystal Ball has been studying history for decades, and puzzling over the current race for president...
