The Democratic Crystal Ball Formula Candidate debates? So far, they’ve been sound and fury, signifying nothing. The real campaign is a set of very different numbers, and the Crystal Ball has crunched them. Your Crystal Ball has been studying history for decades, and puzzling over the current race for president...
Bush Popularity Dive Several recent national surveys have had President Bush slipping to his all-time job-approval low, such as the CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll released Sep. 22 that had Bush at just the 50 percent approval level. Is this unusual, a product of the lagging employment rate and the disaster in...
As we look to the final year of this eternal presidential election, the Crystal Ball gets right down to it. The Democratic field has already sorted itself out, and while that field will almost certainly reconstitute itself in various permutations between now and the determination of the nomination in February...
Thanks to some very sharp and persuasive Crystal Ball readers – especially Chuck Thies, Sean Tenner, and John Capozzi – we have been encouraged to think through the implications of the D.C. primary, scheduled on Jan. 13, 2004, before Iowa (Jan. 19) and New Hampshire (Jan. 27). Of course, we...
In the June 2003 Crystal Ball, we manipulated the Electoral College to find a way for Democrats to compete, and potentially win, in November 2004. In this month's Crystal Ball musing, we turn the tables. How should George W. Bush approach his old friend, the Electoral College? The president has...
With less than 18 months to go before Election Day 2004, what does the Electoral College picture look like? Wait, you say. How could even the Crystal Ball pretend to have a fix on electoral votes this far out? The answer is simple: Because of the polarization of the Red...
As 2004 approaches, Democrats have plenty of factors to consider as they choose a nominee to take on President Bush. Surely, one of these is to avoid repeating the most embarrassing aspect of election night 2000. No, not the razor-thin loss in Florida, but Al Gore's solid defeat in his...
Year President War Political Effect 1950 Truman Korea The unpopularity of this war, including Truman's firing of Gen. MacArthur, contributed to Truman's not seeking a second full elective term in 1952. 1952 Eisenhower Korea "I will go to Korea," said Eisenhower during the '52 campaign, and the natural public confidence...
Now that the war phase of the Iraq operation is winding down, it's time for the Crystal Ball to return and assess the damage. Not damage on the ground, but the damage – or the boost – to various presidential candidates' chances.First, the DEMOCRATS. Let's remember how the last successful...
Julius Caesar was warned: "Beware the Ides of March." Our modern presidents should be warned: "Beware the third year." Why, that's the presidential year George W. Bush has just begun! The third year is among the times that try presidents' souls. Take a look at our new analysis of the...
After a post-election hiatus, we officially re-launch Sabatos Crystal Ball as the political planets align. The New Hampshire primary is exactly one year from today , and the 2005 presidential inauguration is just less than two years away. The Crystal Ball has been given a complete overhaul, making our critically...
Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee are not only the most famous natives of Hope, Arkansas, but they have made similar climbs up the state's political ladder. Each lost their first bid for public office and each served multiple terms as governor before making their first run for president. An asterisk...
