The NM-1 Special: Democrats Hold Serve

House specials may not be as useful an indicator as they were in the 2018 cycle

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats turned in an impressive victory in Tuesday night’s special election in NM-1. This comes a month after Republicans scored an impressive performance of their own in the first round of the TX-6 special. -- Democratic performance represented an improvement over both Barack Obama...

The Senate: Sununu’s Vital Choice

The New Hampshire governor’s decision looms large over the 2022 map

Dear Readers: Virginia lost one of its most prominent and successful political figures on Tuesday, as former Sen. John Warner (R-VA) died at the age of 94. Warner served for three decades in the Senate (1979-2009), becoming known for his expertise on military matters and growing into a role as...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 26, 2021

A silver lining for House Democrats; Democrats in good shape in NM-1 special; Republicans still clearly favored in top Florida races despite emergence of credible challengers

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The House: A silver lining for Democrats Last week’s Crystal Ball, which featured hypothetical ratings of the House that did not take...

The House: Democrats Would Have a Tough Slog Even Without Redistricting

Our hypothetical ratings of House 2022 if no district lines changed

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The reapportionment of House seats and pending redistricting has prevented us from releasing U.S. House ratings so far this cycle. -- While Republicans stand to gain from this process, they would be favored to win the House even if the district lines were not...

The Different Ways of Expanding the House

The number of House representatives has remained largely static for almost a century

Dear Readers: The recent House reapportionment shuffled a handful of seats among the states, but the number of members of the House -- 435 -- did not change. The House has been stuck at just 435 members since the 1910 census, save for a temporary increase to 437 to account...

The Splitting of the Ticket Split

What happened to the House incumbency edge?

Dear Readers: We are excited to feature a first-time Crystal Ball contributor today, UVA student Ethan Chen. He examines an interesting phenomenon in the 2020 House elections: a much more significant incumbency advantage for Republicans compared to Democrats. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The 2020 House...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2021

Youngkin captures Virginia GOP nomination; Minnesota under the influence of weed (parties); new report dissects the 2020 electorate

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors VA-GOV: Youngkin wins GOP nomination, race Leans Democratic for the fall Glenn Youngkin, former co-chief executive of the Carlyle Group, won the...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 3, 2021

Republicans finish ahead in TX-6; Bustos announces retirement; polarization thriving in the American electorate

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors TX-6: Democrats locked out of runoff In the Dallas area this weekend, a somewhat unexpected -- but not entirely surprising -- result...

Notes on the State of Politics: April 28, 2021

Sabato interviews Susan Page later today; checking in on the Virginia gubernatorial nomination fights; breaking down Troy Carter’s LA-2 win

Dear Readers: At 3:30 p.m. eastern today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will interview USA Today Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page about her new book, Madam Speaker: Nancy Pelosi and the Lessons of Power. To tune in, click here. If you can’t watch live, we’ll...

Checking in on Biden’s Approval Rating as Hundred Days’ Mark Nears

Steady on average, but individual pollsters vary greatly

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s approval rating has been steady and positive, though many other presidents had better early numbers. -- The “honeymoons” of past presidents may have been stronger because of a less partisanized and polarized electorate. -- Individual national pollsters disagree on Biden’s approval rating....

Notes on the State of Politics: April 20, 2021

GOP starts favored to hold OH-15 special; widening field in North Carolina Senate race; LBJ’s rise and “court packing”

Dear Readers: Over the years, the Crystal Ball has published periodic articles with the headline “Notes on the State of Politics.” These articles feature shorter, bite-sized observations about elections and politics. As a way to better serve readers, we’re planning on publishing more frequent “Notes on the State of Politics”...

The Mini-Midterms: Five Takeaways from Six Decades of House Special Elections

Races often break against president’s party; winners rarely lose next election

Dear Readers: Join us tonight (Thursday, April 15) at 6:30 p.m. eastern for a free, virtual panel: “The Changing Face of America: Voters of Color in the 2020 Election.” Theodore Johnson of the Brennan Center for Justice will moderate, and Andra Gillespie of Emory University, Mark Hugo Lopez of the...

Did Scandal Cost North Carolina Democrats a Senate Seat?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In North Carolina’s hotly contested Senate race last year, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) narrowly won reelection against a scandal-plagued opponent, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D-NC). -- Had Cunningham’s candidacy not been weighed down by a personal affair, he may have still lost. Indeed,...