How the States Vote Relative to the Nation: A 2024 Update
How the states have voted compared to the nation since the 2000 presidential election.
Wisconsin 2024: Not Critical But Still Crucial
Of the 7 states that were considered Toss-ups during the 2024 campaign, Kamala Harris fared best in Wisconsin, although Donald Trump still carried it. Though Trump gained votes throughout the state, Harris performed respectably in several areas.
The 2024 Iowa Poll for President: A Cautionary Tale
A group of University of Iowa scholars dissect the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, which ended up vastly underestimating Donald Trump's performance in Iowa.
The End of the Line for Red State Senate Democrats
As part of capturing the Senate this year, Republicans at long last knocked out the final remaining Democratic senators from a group of 20 states that have consistently voted Republican for president since at least the 2000 election.
How Virginia Illustrates the 2024 Election
In 2024, Kamala Harris held Virginia by about a 52%-46% margin, which was several points worse than Joe Biden's 2020 showing in the state. However, as Harris lost ground in Northern Virginia, she remained competitive in many swingy areas of the state.
The 2024 Senate Undervote: Not High By Historical Standards
The size of this year's "undervote" in Senate races was very similar to what we have seen in other recent presidential cycles
The State-Level Differences Between the Presidential and Senate Races
In 2024, Senate Democrats held at least 4 seats in states that Trump won at the presidential level, marking somewhat of a return of ticket-splitting. Republican candidates also did notably better than Trump in some states.
The House District Results That Tell the Presidential Story
Prior to the election, we identified some key House districts that would tell that would tell the tale of both the race for the presidency and the race for the House. A tour of these districts shows the broad gains Donald Trump made in 2024 in places that previously had been both swinging toward and against him.
Our Final 2024 Ratings
Our final race ratings for the 2024 presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial races
Notes on the State of the Election: Close States, House and Senate polls, and More
A history of close states in recent presidential races, plus a look at House and Senate polling and trends
Updating the Down-Ballot Statewide Races
In 2024, there are 10 contests for attorney general, 7 for secretary of state, and 5 for lieutenant governorships that are elected on their own rather than as part of a ticket with the gubernatorial nominee. Only two states have genuinely competitive races for any of these offices — North Carolina for all 3 offices, and Pennsylvania for attorney general.
One Week to Go, and Two Contradictory ‘Gut’ Feelings
We find ourselves having a couple of gut feelings about what’s going on in the presidential race. Unfortunately for predictive purposes, the two gut reactions are incompatible with one another.
Rating Changes: Pushing House Toss-ups, Nebraska Senate to Leans Republican
We are pushing a few House Toss-ups out of that category this week, leaving revised ratings that show 212 House seats at least leaning Republican, 209 at least leaning Democratic, and 14 Toss-ups. The Nebraska Senate race also moves to Leans Republican.
The State Legislatures: Several Key Battleground Chambers Remain Toss-ups
In our second and most likely final pre-election handicapping of state legislature control of the 2024 cycle, we find 13 chambers that are competitive: either Leans Republican, Toss-up, or Leans Democratic.
Citizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Last Soundings
A series of four different polls asking Americans who they believe will win the election showed that more expected Donald Trump to win during the summer, but more recently these expectations have moved in favor of Kamala Harris.
The Senate: Republicans Measure Majority in Midwest as Democrats Seek Targets
Republicans remain on track to win at least 51 Senate seats in November, which would allow them to take control of the chamber. How big of a majority they can win is likeliest to be determined in the Midwest.
Three Weeks to Go: Has Anybody Seen Our Crystal Ball Anywhere?
The presidential election “vibes” have arguably been positive for Republicans in recent days, but the race is still completely up for grabs.
Places to Watch, Part Two: The Sun Belt
North Carolina and Georgia each have suburban counties where Kamala Harris could gain next month, although Donald Trump may well do so in some of their rural counties. Arizona and Nevada each have large counties that dominate their politics, but other counties in those states are worth keeping an eye on.
Defining ‘Close’ in the Context of the 2024 Election
Most expect the presidential race to be “close,” but what does that actually mean? The 6 most recent presidential elections provide some parameters—and set a high bar.
Indiana Governor Moves to the Edge of the Playing Field
We announced a rating change last week that we’d like to formalize today: We are moving Indiana’s gubernatorial race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. The GOP is still clearly favored there but there’s been enough activity that it doesn’t seem like an average, sleepy “Safe”-rated contest.