Dear Readers: What follows is an excerpt from veteran political scientist Kenneth Janda’s excellent new book, The Republican Evolution: From Governing Party to Antigovernment Party, 1860-2020, which was released this week by Columbia University Press. In his book, an overview of which is presented below, Janda traces the history of...
Dear Readers: The Center for Politics at UVA will hold its 24th annual American Democracy Conference tonight starting at 6 p.m. Join us virtually at: https://livestream.com/tavco/adc2022 The conference will feature a pair of panels focusing on what happened in the 2022 election and looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election....
Dear Readers: Join us at noon eastern today for a Twitter Spaces featuring Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of the Crystal Ball and our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley. They will be discussing the continuing takeaways from the 2022 election, Donald Trump’s presidential announcement, the looming Georgia...
Dear Readers: Before we begin today, we wanted to express our deepest condolences over the murder of 3 UVA students -- Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr., and D’Sean Perry -- and the wounding of 2 others earlier this week. We also appreciate the many expressions of sympathy we have received...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans enjoyed a wave-style environment in a few states -- but Democrats showed impressive strength in much of the rest of the country. -- The GOP’s lack of discipline in candidate selection cost them a number of races. -- It remains too early to truly...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain...
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. This article represents his third and final effort to handicap the competitive contests for secretary of state and attorneys general across the country. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE...
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A couple of high-profile gubernatorial races move further toward Republicans. -- In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appears positioned to win his rematch with Stacey Abrams (D), probably without a runoff. -- In Florida, the questions are more about the size of Gov. Ron...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- It will take some time to assess any possible fallout from the Pennsylvania Senate debate on Tuesday night. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) very clearly struggled. -- Early voting has begun in our pair of Senate Toss-ups, Georgia and Nevada, with inconclusive signals. --...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We now rate 218 House seats -- the magic number for winning a majority -- as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article looks at the 2022 Senate races and compares current trial heat data to the president’s approval rating in these states. -- Historically, in-power incumbents outperform the sitting president’s job approval. This trend is continuing in 2022, and the average of this outperformance...
Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. Lucca brings that...
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is updating his assessment of the race for state legislative control. He has also analyzed contests for attorney general, secretary of state, state supreme court, and statewide ballot issues....
