Notes on the State of Politics: August 24, 2022

NY rating changes after impressive Democratic special election win; OH-SEN to Leans Republican

  Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. We are making a few rating changes today, including in a pair of upstate New York House races after Democrats scored an impressive victory in a closely-watched swing...

The Gubernatorial Races: Look to the West

The most question marks about 2022 lie west of the Mississippi; rating changes in MD, NY, OR

Dear Readers: We all know democracy is in crisis, but what can we do to fix it? Politics Is Everything is a new podcast from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia hosted by Carah Ong Whaley, Kyle Kondik, and other members of the Center for Politics team....

Notes on the State of the Primaries: August 17, 2022

Recapping primaries in 3 western states; WA-SEN moves back to Safe Democratic

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Today we are taking a look at the results in 3 western states -- Alaska and Wyoming voted last night, while Washington state recently finalized the results from its...

Secretary of State Races: Election Deniers Carry GOP Banner in Several Key States

Several top battlegrounds feature competitive races in these newly-prominent races

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is doing his second assessment of this year’s secretary of state races, which have taken on added importance in the aftermath of the 2020 election. He has also analyzed attorney general,...

Notes on the State of the Primaries: August 10, 2022

A narrow win for the GOP in MN-1, primaries in CT, VT, WI

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Before we begin this week, we wanted to wish our dear friend, Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz, a speedy recovery from a medical procedure he had last week....

Reassessing the Race for the Senate

GOP challengers mirror Trump in lack of experience; for Democrats, experience means a record

Dear Readers: Today through Tuesday, we’re celebrating the 70th birthday of Center for Politics Director and Founder Larry Sabato. A community of donors and friends of the Center have committed to match every gift raised for the UVA Center for Politics in his honor up to $25,000. We invite you to...

Notes on the State of Politics: August 3, 2022

Abortion rights supporters win first post-Roe ballot battle; Senate Republicans avoid a headache in Missouri; Trumpy Arizona; and more

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. After last night’s big primaries, we go state-by-state below and assess the takeaways, starting with the most notable result of the evening -- a decisive victory for abortion rights supporters...

House Rating Changes: More Movement Toward Republicans

10 changes, all but 1 in favor of GOP

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making 10 House rating changes, 9 of which benefit Republicans. -- Our overall best guess at the net change in the House -- a GOP gain somewhere in the 20s -- remains unchanged. -- We don’t see a huge impact, so far,...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2022

Previewing next week’s crowded primary slate, and looking back on Maryland

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Below, we’re taking a quick look back at last week’s Maryland primary and then a look ahead at next Tuesday’s packed primary calendar, one of the biggest of the...

The Republican Advance in the South — and Other Party Registration Trends

How state-level registration has changed in recent years

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Party registration can be a lagging indicator of political change, but recent changes in some states are bringing registration more in line with actual voting. -- Republicans have taken the voter registration edge in states such as Florida and West Virginia somewhat recently, and...

Making Polls Work (Again)

An excerpt from G. Elliott Morris’s new history of polling

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to feature an excerpt from G. Elliott Morris’s new book, Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them. Morris is a data journalist at the Economist whose work has previously appeared in the Crystal Ball. In this excerpt, Morris addresses some of the...

High Courts, High Stakes

2022’s top state supreme court races

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After taking a first look at attorney general, secretary of state, and state legislative races, he is analyzing state supreme courts this week. While there are judicial elections across the country,...

Politics in the Post-Roe World

Abortion springs to the forefront but Republicans retain a strong hand

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The president’s party often struggles in midterms, although extraordinary circumstances can save them from losses. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade could be 2022’s extraordinary circumstance. -- Beyond abortion, Republicans still retain powerful political advantages. -- Democrats could get their version of...