The Politics of the Nation’s Fastest-Growing Counties

Trends help illuminate how their states have changed over the past decade, particularly in Florida and Texas

Dear Readers: Join the UVA Center for Politics later today (Thursday, March 31) for a virtual panel, “Domestic Terrorism: How Vulnerable Are We?” The virtual forum will be streaming at https://livestream.com/tavco/uvacfp-domesticterrorism from 6:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. eastern. Former United States Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 30, 2022

Two more looming House special elections; redistricting updates

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Special elections imminent in Nebraska, Texas With the congressional primary season schedule already poised to start heating up in May, 2 new elections will soon...

Are Latinos Deserting the Democratic Party? Evidence from the Exit Polls

Democratic share of the Latino vote has been highly variable from election to election

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump performed better in 2020 with Latino voters than he did in 2016, particularly in places like South Texas and South Florida. -- However, an analysis of the longer-term trend in...

Gas Prices and Presidential Approval

There is some connection historically, but that connection is getting weaker

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Joe Biden and his party are struggling amidst myriad challenges, including high gas prices. Gas prices have spiked in recent weeks following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. -- There is some association between higher gas prices and lower presidential approval, although the connection...

Redistricting: What’s Left?

Looking at the 5 states (and 59 districts) that have yet to be finalized

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The national redistricting picture is nearly complete, as only 5 more states -- FL, LA, MO, NH, and OH -- have yet to enact congressional maps. -- While Democrats are currently up in our running House tally, the plans from those 5 remaining states...

Abortion Battlefields in a Potentially Post-Roe Political World

Watch these states in the event of a landmark Supreme Court decision later this year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- If the Supreme Court overturns Roe vs. Wade later this year, it could hypothetically energize Democratic voters in the 2022 midterms. But it’s unclear whether abortion will become a big enough motivator for Democrats to overcome the historical pattern of unfavorable midterms for the...

Breaking Down North Carolina and Pennsylvania’s New Maps

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- North Carolina and Pennsylvania are 2 closely-divided states where the redistricting process this cycle ultimately fell to Democratic-controlled state courts. -- Democrats seem likely to gain at least 1 seat out of North Carolina, although the relatively favorable map that they got will only...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 2, 2022

TX-28 to Toss-up; national House vote in midterms; the new OK Senate race

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) Leans Democratic Toss-up Texas primary takeaways We’d say the...

Redistricting and Competition in Congressional Elections

Forces beyond gerrymandering explain rising number of districts that strongly favor one party

Dear Readers: Join the UVA Center for Politics this Friday from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. eastern for a virtual panel, “Crisis in Europe: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine.” Center for Politics resident scholar Chris Krebs, the former director of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency,...

Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 23, 2022

Washington a GOP Senate sleeper; rating Rhode Island; special House elections in MN-1 & CA-22; looking for Democratic slippage in South Texas

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Patty Murray (D-WA) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Washington Senate to Likely Democratic While...

The “Big Sort” Continues, with Trump as a Driving Force

Number of blowout counties spiked in 2016, endured in 2020

Dear Readers: UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato recently interviewed Jonathan Karl of ABC News and Rep. Ro Khanna (D, CA-17) about, respectively, their new books Betrayal: The Final Act of the Trump Show and Dignity in a Digital Age: Making Tech Work for All of Us. If...

New House Ratings: Connecticut, Kansas, Minnesota, and Washington

Only 9 states have not finished their maps

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Four more states finalized their House maps over the past week or so, bringing the total number of states with completed congressional maps to 41. -- Maps in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Washington did not change much at all, while Kansas Republicans targeted the state’s...