KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Despite an increasing correlation between presidential and down-ballot results, there are still nine governors who govern states that their party did not win for president. That means there is a higher percentage of crossover governors than crossover members of the Senate and House. --...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Despite a requirement that congressional districts have roughly identical populations within states, the number of raw votes cast in each district can vary widely, both within a state and across the country. -- In 2022, there was a nearly 300,000-vote difference between the lowest-turnout...
Dear Readers: For more than five decades, the Almanac of American Politics has set the standard for political reference books. This month, the Almanac is publishing its 2024 edition, with some 2,200 pages offering fully updated chapters on all 435 House members and their districts, all 100 senators, all 50...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Today, we’re taking a quick look at gubernatorial races in Washington and New Hampshire, as well as a flood of losing 2022 House candidates seeking redemption in 2024....
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The tipping point state in a presidential election is the state that gets the winning candidate over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. -- In the last two presidential elections, the tipping point state was Wisconsin. -- In the postwar era, the tipping...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our initial 2024 Electoral College ratings start with just four Toss-up states. -- Democrats start with a small advantage, although both sides begin south of what they need to win. -- We consider a rematch of the 2020 election -- Joe Biden versus Donald...
Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, the Crystal Ball’s J. Miles Coleman, Kyle Kondik, and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the results from Tuesday night’s Virginia state legislative primaries and look ahead to the closely-contested battle for control of both chambers coming up this fall....
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Supreme Court’s Allen v. Milligan decision should give Democrats at least a little help in their quest to re-take the House majority, but much remains uncertain. -- As of now, the Democrats’ best bets to add a seat in 2024 are in Alabama,...
Dear Readers: We’re pleased to welcome polling expert Natalie Jackson back to the Crystal Ball this week. She explores Donald Trump’s continued strength in the GOP despite a recent indictment. We also urge you to listen to our recent Politics is Everything podcast episode with Natalie, where we discussed Trump,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The percentage of women in state legislatures has increased in recent years. However, there is still a significant gender gap in most states as women have not reached parity in representation. -- The majority of women in state legislatures are Democrats. While more Republican...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Hampshire and Democrats’ search for a gubernatorial target Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) did something a little unusual for a Republican these days -- he decided...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In 2020, Donald Trump would have needed to flip 37 additional Electoral College votes to reach 269, thereby winning an effective majority in the Electoral College, thanks to a likely Republican advantage if the Electoral College produces a tied outcome. -- The 2024 Electoral...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The West Coast states have all been Democratic-leaning in nearly every recent presidential election. -- One exception was Oregon, which leaned slightly right of the nation in 2000, although it is now a solidly blue state. -- Looking nationally, Biden was the best-performing recent...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Governors seem to be strikingly popular these days, especially compared to national political figures and institutions such as Congress and the Supreme Court. -- This tendency appears to be holding for the nine rookie governors who took office for the first time after last...
On Wednesday, we announced the release of our new book on the recent midterm elections: The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024. What follows are a few excerpts from the book, illustrating five takeaways from the election. As a reminder, Crystal Ball readers can...
