Sabato’s Crystal Ball

A series of four different polls asking Americans who they believe will win the election showed that more expected Donald Trump to win during the summer, but more recently these expectations have moved in favor of Kamala Harris.

The presidential election “vibes” have arguably been positive for Republicans in recent days, but the race is still completely up for grabs.

North Carolina and Georgia each have suburban counties where Kamala Harris could gain next month, although Donald Trump may well do so in some of their rural counties. Arizona and Nevada each have large counties that dominate their politics, but other counties in those states are worth keeping an eye on.

Most expect the presidential race to be “close,” but what does that actually mean? The 6 most recent presidential elections provide some parameters—and set a high bar.

Former President Jimmy Carter’s 100th birthday coinciding with the vice presidential debate today is fitting, given the important role Carter played in elevating the stature of the vice presidency.

While the 7 states that the Crystal Ball currently rates as Toss-ups will be important in the Electoral College, each state has several key counties. We are examining a selection of crucial counties in the "Blue Wall" states.

Polling in states that are somewhat competitive for president but outside the group of 7 that is likely to decide this election generally reflect the 2020 results, although Donald Trump is usually performing slightly better than the actual 2020 results in those states, much like the polling in the key battlegrounds that we covered last week.

Final polling did generally overstate Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 elections in these states, with Wisconsin standing out. Keep that in mind as polling shows Kamala Harris holding up a little bit better in the Badger State than elsewhere.

This year's version of the Time for Change model shows Kamala Harris as a narrow favorite in both the popular vote and Electoral College, but her predicted margins are so small that the safest prediction we can make about the 2024 presidential election is that it is likely to be very close.