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Center for Politics Study: Partisan Desires Override Support for Constitutional Freedoms and American Values

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A new national study by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia reveals a stunning number of Americans endorsing policies that could challenge the U.S. Constitution, even as a majority express a preference for democracy over other forms of governance. This study of 2,008 U.S. registered voters conducted from Aug. 25 to Sept. 11, 2023, is the initial phase of a series by the Center for Politics’ Project Home Fire to gauge sentiments as the 2024 presidential race looms. For more information on the study, including figures and charts spelling out the findings, see this companion presentation. 2024 electoral landscape: Biden vs. Trump In a head-to-head race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, 52% said they plan to vote for Biden and 48% for Trump, mirroring 2020 outcomes. Respondents reported similarly negative views of both candidates, with 40% approving and 50% disapproving of Biden’s job performance, and 39% approving and 53% disapproving of Trump. Voters split 40%-35% in favor of at least probably supporting Democratic candidates over Republican candidates in the 2024 congressional elections, with 25% opting for a middle ground, prioritizing qualifications over party affiliation. Those who intended to support one candidate expressed a

UVA Center for Politics

Louisiana 2023: The Road to Saturday’s Primary

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — On Saturday, Louisiana voters will go to the polls to begin selecting a replacement for term-limited Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA). — In the all-party primary, state Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) has been the frontrunner for much of the campaign and will likely advance to a runoff. — The state Democratic establishment has thrown its weight behind former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, who will probably join Landry in a runoff. — Despite Edwards’s success in recent gubernatorial elections, many of the dynamics that favored him in 2015 and 2019 are now absent. The Crystal Ball rates the race as Likely Republican. Previewing Louisiana’s Saturday primary In the 2022 midterm elections, one area where Democrats most obviously beat historical expectations were the gubernatorial contests. Despite defending several marginal states, Democrats came out with a net gain of governorships. While it was impressive that Democrats held up well in states that are typically competitive — such examples include Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin — their overall net gain was due to flipping a pair of solidly blue northeastern states: Maryland and Massachusetts. In the former, Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) was term-limited while, in the latter, Gov. Charlie

J. Miles Coleman

2024 GOP Rivals Teaming Up on the Ticket? Don’t Bet on It

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — History suggests that whoever wins the Republican presidential nomination is unlikely to choose one of their rivals for the nomination as his or her running mate. — This has happened on occasion in the recent past — including Joe Biden selecting Kamala Harris as his running mate in 2020 — but it is very uncommon, especially on the Republican side. — Running mates in recent times often, though not always, have not run for president before. They often are not from the ranks of those who were early endorsers of the eventual nominee. Moreover, in modern times they have always been past or present officeholders. Lessons from history on VP selection When pundits run short of things to say about presidential nominating races, they often turn to the choice of the vice presidential running mate. This cycle, an unusual amount of early speculation is already occurring about the Republican vice presidential choice as some, perhaps prematurely, view the presidential nominee as apparent. The past is not always prologue regarding vice presidential selection because each new cycle presents different circumstances and a presidential nominee who has never, or perhaps only once, chosen a running mate,

Joel K. Goldstein

Trump and Biden Seek Historic Combined Sweep

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Despite weak overall favorability, Joe Biden and Donald Trump could combine for the strongest presidential nominating performance in modern history. — Since the advent of the current nominating system in each party, which dates to the early 1970s, at least one of the two eventual major party nominees suffered at least some losses during the primary season. — It is possible that Biden and Trump could both sweep every contest next year. — Several nominating seasons came close to producing such a sweep, particularly in the 1996-2004 range. The possibility of a Biden/Trump sweep There is no shortage of evidence suggesting the general election weakness of the two frontrunners for the major party presidential nominations, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. They have very similar, and low, favorability. According to the RealClearPolitics averages, Biden’s favorability is 41% favorable and 55% unfavorable. Trump’s is a similar 40%/56% split. That is comparable to the weak favorability of Trump and his opponent, Hillary Clinton, on the eve of the 2016 election: The same average pegged Trump’s split at 38%/59%, with Clinton a bit better at 42%/54%. The 2016 election was widely regarded as featuring the

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics: Oct. 4, 2023

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Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors The McCarthy fallout On one side of the Capitol yesterday, now-Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) became the Senate’s newest member. Appointed to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), who died last week, Butler took office as Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) made good on his pledge to appoint a Black woman in the event Feinstein’s seat opened up. It remains to be seen if Butler will simply serve as a placeholder or actually run for the seat in her own right next year — the filing deadline is in early December, and the field already includes several big names. On most days, Butler’s historic appointment — she is only the third Black woman to serve in the chamber — may have been the main story on the Hill. But members of the House had other plans: The biggest story of the day actually involved one of Butler’s Bakersfield-area constituents. In a move that made history, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R, FL-1), who is perhaps best described as a nihilist conservative, put forward a motion to vacate the

J. Miles Coleman

Why Haven’t We Had A Woman President?

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Dear Readers: We will be reacting to Wednesday night’s second Republican presidential primary debate on the “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Like so many other female politicians, Nikki Haley faces a “woman problem” and must combat sexist rhetoric that is prevalent in politics and has been since Victoria C. Woodhull became the first woman to run for president in 1872. — Campaigns and elections are more challenging for women than men due to structural disadvantages, including media coverage of candidates, public opinion, and stereotypes. — Women are more pessimistic than men about the prospects for a female president. Fewer women than men think many Americans are ready to elect a woman to higher office even though more women than men personally hope that a woman will become president in their lifetime. The challenges for women running for president Like so many other female politicians, Nikki Haley faces a “woman problem.” Despite Haley’s political experience as governor of South Carolina and Ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump Administration, she was not taken seriously as a candidate until the first

Carah Ong Whaley and Kylie Holzman

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 26, 2023

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors New Jersey Senate: Gold bars, cash in envelopes — and a primary challenge In 1999, then-former Gov. Edwin Edwards (D-LA), who had spent a not-insignificant chunk of his 16 years as governor in and out of court, quipped, “People say I’ve had brushes with the law. That’s not true. I’ve had brushes with overzealous prosecutors.” At the time, Edwards was being accused of taking part in a bribery scheme involving riverboat casino licenses — he was later found guilty and served nearly a decade in jail. At a press conference yesterday, it was New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D) who found himself in the hot seat. On Friday, the three-term senator, who is running for reelection next year, was indicted on federal corruption charges. During a search of his home, federal agents found roughly $500,000 in cash stuffed in envelopes along with gold bars and other luxury items that the Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s office alleges were bribes the senator took in exchange to help Egyptian interests. Menendez, like Edwards, is no stranger to the courtroom: A year before his

J. Miles Coleman

The Race for Virginia’s Legislature, Part Two

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Dear Readers: This is Part Two of our series previewing the races for the Virginia state legislature. In Part One, we looked at the big-picture stakes and trends. Today, we go through the districts that we think will decide the chamber, including 10 in the House and 6 in the Senate. We would like to recognize the co-author of this piece, Jackson Hamilton, who interned with us over the summer and did important background research for this article. For more on the race for the Virginia legislature, check out our latest episode of the “Politics is Everything” podcast, which is now available wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Because of new, court-drawn maps, the 2023 Virginia election cycle has been defined by a high rate of attrition — and this is before the general election has even taken place. — Though he is not on the ballot himself, Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) has emerged as a visible player, using his platform to boost Republican nominees as he aims to win a GOP trifecta. — In the Democratic-held state Senate, Sens. Monty Mason (D) and Siobhan Dunnavant (R) are in competitive races, while the

J. Miles Coleman and Jackson Hamilton

The Battle for the Virginia State Legislature, Part One

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Dear Readers: This is the first of a two-part Crystal Ball series on this November’s state legislative elections in Virginia. Today’s piece looks at the overall electoral picture, and Part Two will identify and analyze the key districts that will decide the majorities. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In this year’s state legislative races in Virginia, Republicans are trying to do something that has become rare: forge a state government trifecta in a state that voted for the other party for president. — At first blush, Democrats would appear to have a clear edge on the map, but in an off-year election, the key districts’ presidential voting patterns overstate how Democratic they are in these legislative races. — While President Biden’s approval rating is actually worse than it was in November 2021, when Republicans scored victories in that year’s Virginia races, the political environment is likely better for Democrats now than it was back then. Virginia 2023 The stakes for this November’s state legislative elections in Virginia are probably the highest of any state-level election being conducted this year, because the election has the potential to create something that is relatively unusual in today’s nationalized politics:

Kyle Kondik

The Republicans’ ‘Excess Seat’ Edge in State Legislatures

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Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we talk with the author of today’s Crystal Ball piece — Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson — about his article today on “excess seats” in state legislatures as well as his journalism career with PolitiFact, House Republicans’ recently-announced impeachment inquiry into President Biden, and much more. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We analyzed 48 states to see which have the most lopsided state Senate and state House chambers compared to how the state voted for president. — Both parties have some states in which the legislative breakdown significantly exaggerates the patterns of the presidential vote. — For Democrats, Hawaii, Rhode Island and Massachusetts have the most “excess seats” above the presidential vote threshold. For Republicans, the list is both longer and more varied, with Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin standing out as at least somewhat competitive states where the Republicans have large excess seat advantages. — In all, Republicans have proven much more adept than Democrats at leveraging presidential vote patterns into even larger majorities in state legislative chambers. The GOP has achieved significant levels of

Louis Jacobson

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 13, 2023

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Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors Repeat candidates possible in key Senate races A few months ago, we noted that one theme in this cycle’s House races has been the presence of repeat candidates running in key races: candidates who were unsuccessful in the recent past taking another crack at running. Since then, that trend has held up. One example, from just earlier this week, came in North Carolina — Republican pastor Mark Harris announced his campaign to succeed Rep. Dan Bishop (R, NC-8), who is vacating his Piedmont-area House seat to run for state Attorney General. In 2018, Harris, as the GOP nominee in a competitive race, found his campaign at the center of a ballot fraud operation. After litigation, a rare “re-do” election took place the following year, which Bishop won. In any case, this got us thinking: the “repeat” dynamic is one that has hardly been confined to the House. Looking to next year’s Senate contests, several challengers across key states may be familiar to voters. Earlier this year, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) identified what he

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part Two

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020. — The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap. — While there is nearly a 40-point difference between the top and bottom halves, the gap did not grow from 2016-2020. Top vs. bottom halves, 1996-2020 Among the many things that stand out from a longer-term look at how the nation’s biggest counties vote versus the rest of the country is this: The George W. Bush realignment of 2000 was comparable to the Donald Trump realignment of 2016 in widening the gap between the nation’s two halves. As part of our ongoing series in comparing the “top halves” to the “bottom halves” of both the nation and individual states, we decided to expand our look at the nation to encompass not just the changes between 2012 and 2020 — which we did in Part One of this series — but also the trajectory of the last quarter century, from Bill Clinton’s second victory in 1996 to Joe Biden’s win in 2020. As a reminder, what we are doing

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics: Aug. 31, 2023

Dear Readers: Before we begin today, we wanted to share an offer from our friend Taegan Goddard, who runs Political Wire. Crystal Ball readers can get 20% off a site membership using this link. We highly recommend the site as a place to catch up on the latest political news. Today’s Crystal Ball features the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, with a couple of shorter items: Kyle Kondik argues that his home state of Ohio shouldn’t be looked at as a key presidential battleground despite what amounted to a big Democratic victory in a recent statewide ballot issue, and Carah Ong Whaley sounds an alarm about the threat that a newly-emerging campaign tool, Generative AI, poses amidst a campaign landscape already littered with disinformation. — The Editors Don’t expect Ohio to be a 2024 battleground In the aftermath of Ohio voters strongly rejecting an effort by state Republicans to make it harder for voters to amend the state constitution, there has been a little bit of buzz about Ohio potentially returning to the 2024 presidential battlefield. Back in 2016, I wrote a book about Ohio’s longstanding bellwether status titled The Bellwether. For decades prior to that

Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley

The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part Two

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Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball team will be reacting to last night’s first Republican presidential debate on a new episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Vermont and California were two blue states where the pro-abortion rights sides of 2022 ballot measures ran considerably ahead of Democratic nominees for statewide office. — Also in 2022, voters in Kentucky and Montana defeated GOP-backed abortion-related ballot questions; the results of those votes may provide something of an electoral roadmap for Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). — The pro-abortion rights side has generally run ahead of Democratic candidate performance recently, although there are now examples from several states of Democratic candidates doing better than the ballot issues in a variety of heavily minority areas. — In each of the seven states that have held abortion-related ballot measures since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling, the pro-abortion rights side has outperformed Biden more In the counties that make up lesser-populated “bottom half” counties in these states. Abortion ballot issues vs partisan races (continued) Last week, we began our look at

J. Miles Coleman

Explaining Republican Loyalty to Trump: The Crucial Role of Negative Partisanship

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Negative partisanship — the tendency for partisans to be animated by dislike for the other side — has become a powerful force in American politics. — This dynamic makes it harder for partisans to cross over to the other side and keeps general elections quite competitive. — Attacks on Donald Trump by Democrats, liberals, and mainstream media figures and even indictments by federal and state prosecutors on serious criminal charges have only served to reinforce the loyalty of Republican voters to Trump. Negative partisanship buoys Trump Less than six months before voters begin casting ballots in the first presidential caucuses and primaries, former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the field of Republican candidates. According to RealClearPolitics as of Aug. 22, Trump is receiving an average of 55.9% support in national polls of Republican voters compared with 14.6% for his nearest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Moreover, Trump’s margin over DeSantis has increased in recent months following indictments in multiple jurisdictions for allegedly criminal conduct including his notorious efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. What is perhaps even more surprising than Trump’s domination of the Republican nomination contest is his

Alan I. Abramowitz

The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part One

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decisions last year, seven states have held abortion-related ballot issues, and abortion rights advocates have won all seven contests. — In Kansas and Michigan, the pro-abortion rights side broadly outperformed the winning Democratic nominees for governor. — In Ohio, last week’s Issue 1 ballot question, which was cast as a proxy vote on abortion rights, followed a similar pattern, roundly outperforming now-former Rep. Tim Ryan’s (D) showing in last year’s Senate race. Abortion ballot issues vs partisan races Whenever we cover a major ballot issue at the Crystal Ball, we always caution that, even though some votes are framed through heavily nationalized lenses, not everything from these votes can be transferred to typical partisan races. That said, since the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling last year, seven states have held ballot measures that relate, whether directly or indirectly, to abortion rights. Abortion rights advocates have come out on the winning side of all seven contests, which is something that has been widely interpreted as a promising trend for Democrats — so the urge to compare ballot issues to partisan races is strong. With that, we’ll be going through all

J. Miles Coleman

Where Both Parties Overperform in the House, 2023 Edition

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Two years ago, we began looking at the states that produced “excess” House seats for one party or the other — states for which the partisan ratio in House seats exceeds what would be predicted by the state’s presidential vote in 2020. — Back then, we found a rough parity: Republicans squeezed out 32 excess seats, while Democrats squeezed out 28. Now, after a round of aggressive redistricting following the 2020 census, the GOP has expanded that lead to 39-24. — The biggest states for Republican excess seats are Florida, with 5.5; Texas, with 4.9; and Tennessee, with 2.4. The biggest states for excess Democratic seats are California with 6.2, Illinois with 4.0, and Massachusetts with 3.0. House overperformances by state In an era of sharp partisan polarization, it’s increasingly common to find a correlation among House, Senate, and presidential results. Still, differences exist — and those differences help explain why the Democrats control the White House but the Republicans control the House. Two years ago, we looked at the states that produced “excess” House seats for one party or the other — that is, states for which the partisan ratio in House seats

Louis Jacobson

Ohio’s Issue 1 Smackdown

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The pro-abortion rights/Democratic side won yet another fight related to abortion rights on Tuesday night, this time in red-trending Ohio. — Turnout was robust and likely advantaged the Democratic side. Voter participation was relatively poor across Appalachia, a once-competitive area that has become extremely Republican in recent years. — Issue 1 seemed particularly unpopular in some usually red suburban counties, although we have to remember that ballot issues and partisan races are different and that Republicans are still in a strong position in Ohio. Dissecting Ohio’s Issue 1 There is an old saying that “pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered.” It is an apt description for what happened in Ohio’s Issue 1 vote on Tuesday evening. Ohio Republicans, who already dominate state government, asked voters to essentially take away their own power by raising the threshold for voters to approve statewide constitutional amendment ballot measures from a bare 50% majority to a 60% supermajority. The proposal also would have made the signature-gathering process much more difficult in order to place such amendments in front of voters. The whole point of this process was to erect an impassable barrier in front of a looming constitutional

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part One

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Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we discuss the third indictment of former President Trump as well as today’s Crystal Ball article. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Just about 150 of the nation’s more than 3,100 counties cast half of the nation’s presidential vote in 2020. — As we typically see at the state level, the more vote-rich counties are more Democratic, while the thousands of smaller counties that make up the bottom half are more Republican. — This political gulf has widened. Despite similar overall national presidential margins in 2012 and 2020, the difference between the top and bottom halves expanded about 10 points from 2012 to 2020. — Joe Biden won 126 of the 151 top half counties, while Donald Trump won 2,548 of the remaining 2,960 counties in the bottom half. — Trump’s wins among the top half counties were concentrated among the smaller pieces of that group — Biden won all but one of the nearly 50 counties that cast 500,000 votes or more. Top half vs. bottom half at the national level Earlier this year,

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2023

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Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors The Trump coalition: A case of beer plus a bottle of wine Former President Trump does not drink, but his enduring political coalition within the Republican Party is heavy on beer and not lacking for wine. What we’re referring to is the political phrase “wine track vs. beer track,” a handy construction coined by the shrewd political analyst Ron Brownstein to describe fissures within presidential primary coalitions that we’ve borrowed from time to time in our own analysis. Wine track basically means white collar/college-educated, and beer track indicates blue collar/not college-educated. Trump has been stronger with the beer track than the wine track. In March, we wrote that one of the keys for any Trump alternative was to “consolidate the ‘wine track’ (college-educated) vote at least as well as Trump consolidates the ‘beer track’ (non-college) vote.” No one is coming even close to doing that at the moment — and there are signs that Trump is improving among the college-educated Republican vote. Back in late February, the GOP firm Echelon Insights showed Trump leading nationally

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman