Dear Readers: Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson assesses a series of state-level contests for the Crystal Ball. Earlier this cycle, he provided overviews of state supreme court races, statewide ballot issues, and down-ballot statewide races. Today he takes a look at the competitive races for control of state legislative chambers, a group that partially (but not entirely) overlaps with the most competitive presidential states. The Crystal Ball does not issue formal race ratings for these races as part of our normal coverage (we reserve those “official” ratings for the Electoral College, Senate, House, and governors, which we continually update up until the day before the election), but we are also offering Lou’s updates and ratings on these lower-level but still-important races, which he has covered for many years.
— The Editors |
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— In our second and most likely final pre-election handicapping of state legislature control of the 2024 cycle, we find 13 chambers that are competitive—either Leans Republican, Toss-up, or Leans Democratic. That’s slightly fewer than the 15 on election eve two years ago, and only a handful of chambers are shifting ratings today compared to June.
— Right now, the Republicans are playing defense in more chambers than the Democrats are, but only modestly. The GOP currently holds 7 of the competitive chambers, while the Democrats hold 5 of the competitive chambers. One other chamber, the Alaska Senate, is controlled by a cross-partisan alliance.
— Among the competitive chambers, 7 are rated Toss-up. This category includes 4 Republican-held chambers (the Alaska House, the Arizona Senate, the Arizona House, and the New Hampshire House) and 3 Democratic-held chambers (the Michigan House, the Minnesota House, and the Pennsylvania House).
— Four presidential battleground states this year have at least one competitive chamber—Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—and how the presidential race shakes out in each of those states could have a significant impact on who takes control of those states’ legislative chambers.
Assessing the state legislative races
Since we last analyzed the outlook for state legislative control in June, much has happened in national politics, particularly the Democrats’ decision to swap out President Joe Biden for Vice President Kamala Harris as their presidential nominee.
However, little of this sturm und drang seems to have affected the battle to control the state legislatures.
In our second and most likely final handicapping of state legislature control of the 2024 cycle, we find 13 chambers that are competitive—either Leans Republican, Toss-up, or Leans Democratic. Compared to recent election cycles, that’s a medium number of competitive chambers.
The Republicans continue to play defense in more chambers than the Democrats do, but only modestly. The GOP currently holds 7 of the competitive chambers, while the Democrats hold 5 of the competitive chambers. One other chamber, the Alaska Senate, is controlled by a cross-partisan alliance.
Among the competitive chambers, 7 are rated Toss-up. This category includes 4 Republican-held chambers (the Alaska House, the Arizona House and Senate, and the New Hampshire House) and 3 Democratic-held chambers (the Michigan House, the Minnesota House, and the Pennsylvania House).
Three chambers rate Leans Republican: the New Hampshire Senate, the Pennsylvania Senate, and the Wisconsin Assembly. All are currently Republican-held. Two chambers are rated Leans Democratic: the Maine House and the Minnesota Senate. Both are currently held by the Democrats.
The Alaska Senate rates as Leans Other, which would amount to a victory for Democrats in this generally red state.
Table 1: Most competitive state legislative chambers

Four presidential battleground states this year have at least one competitive chamber—Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—and how the presidential race shakes out in each of those states could have a significant impact on who takes control of those states’ legislative chambers.
With this update, we are shifting the ratings of only 5 chambers.
Two of those five shifts are in Alaska, where state legislative politics is particularly hard to handicap because of a recent history of cross-partisan alliances, some of which have taken months after the election to finalize. With this update, we’re shifting the Alaska Senate from Toss-up to Leans Other and the Alaska House from Leans Republican to Toss-up.
Another pair of shifting chambers are in Nevada, where we are moving both the Senate and the Assembly from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
Finally, we’re adding a chamber that wasn’t even supposed to be contested this year to our list: the Minnesota Senate. The chamber is holding one special election this year because of the June 6 resignation of Sen. Kelly Morrison, a Democrat who is running for a U.S. House seat. With the chamber otherwise split 33-33, whoever wins the special election will take control. Given the strength of Democratic performance in that district, we’re calling the chamber Lean Democratic.
This represents the 12th cycle I have handicapped state legislature control, dating back to the 2002 cycle. (Previous versions have been published in the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Political Report, Stateline.org, and Governing magazine.)
This analysis is based on interviews with state and national political sources. We rate chambers on the following scale: Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Leans Republican, Toss-up, Leans Democratic, Likely Democratic, and Safe Democratic. The categories labeled “Leans” and “Toss-up” are considered competitive or in play. “Likely” chambers aren’t expected to shift partisan control, but they could see seat gains by the minority party or are marginally less solid than “Safe” for the majority party.
In 2022, the Democrats had an unexpectedly good year on the legislative level. They flipped both chambers of the Michigan legislature as well as the Minnesota Senate and the Pennsylvania House, and they came within a hair of flipping the New Hampshire House.
In the big picture, though, the GOP has held a consistent edge in state legislative chambers for more than a decade.
Currently, the GOP controls 56 legislative chambers, while the Democrats control 41 chambers, or at least they did before Morrison’s departure in Minnesota. (We’re counting Alaska’s Senate as “other,” while Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is formally nonpartisan.)
For this update, we are not recapping every state legislative chamber in the country; for uncompetitive chambers, readers can find the full rundown in our June edition, most of which still holds today.
Here, we’ll offer updates on every competitive chamber (Leans Republican, Toss-up, and Leans Democratic) and on a handful of other chambers we think are notable. Partisan breakdowns are from the National Conference of State Legislatures as of August unless otherwise noted. Vacancies are not noted in our totals unless they spell the difference in the majority.
States with one or more competitive chamber
ALASKA
Senate (11 R, 9 D, but a coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats controls the chamber): Shift Toss-up to Leans Other
House (22 R, 13 D, 5 other; Republican control, sometimes with Democratic assistance): Shift Leans R to Toss-up
Partisanship in the Alaska legislature is more fluid than in almost any other state, with pragmatic Republicans often siding with (generally moderate) Democrats rather than with conservative hardliners within their own party.
In the Senate, a cross-partisan coalition of Democrats and pragmatic Republicans now looks likely to continue. In the House, there are 2 or 3 highly competitive races, and there’s a chance that conservative Republicans will not secure enough votes to seal a working majority. There’s a good chance once again that control won’t be settled on Election Night.
Because of the Alaska legislature’s fractured dynamics, we’re continuing to rate both chambers as competitive. Several of the close races are multi-partisan, featuring a mix of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, and just under 3 of every 5 registered voters in the state choose not to affiliate with a party. “Friends and neighbors” politics are especially influential in remote, isolated precincts.
ARIZONA
Senate (16 R, 14 D): Toss-up
House (32 R, 28 D): Toss-up
Arizona has a competitive presidential race, a hot Senate contest, and a ballot measure that would bar legislative interference with abortion prior to fetal viability; Republicans hold each legislative chamber by narrow majorities.
Republicans may have a better shot at holding the House, where the GOP margin is slightly wider; it’s also not impossible that the Republicans could expand their House margins. Still, the situation is sufficiently fluid that we’re keeping the chamber’s rating at Toss-up.
The Senate, however, is truly up in the air, with a real possibility of a 15-15 split. The last time that occurred was during the 2001-2002 session. Discussions about how power-sharing might work are said to be underway between Senate members.
Democrats’ hopes are buoyed by the abortion ballot measure, which a September New York Times/Siena poll found was securing 58% support. However, observers say there’s a risk of Democratic voters skipping down-ballot races, especially the legislative contests, which would weaken the positive impact for Democratic legislative candidates.
MAINE
Senate (22 D, 13 R): Likely D
House (79 D, 67 R): Leans D
In 2022, Maine looked like a possibility for a Republican flip (we rated both chambers Toss-up before the election) but the Democrats held on. We still see Democrats favored in both, although Republican chances seem somewhat better in the House.
MICHIGAN
Senate (20 D, 18 R): No races in 2024
House (56 D, 54 R): Toss-up
Michigan is one of the key battleground states in the presidential race, as well as home to a competitive Senate contest and several tight U.S. House races. The Michigan Senate is not up in 2024, but the Michigan House is, and it is being hotly contested.
In 2022, the Democrats flipped both chambers, and they maintain only a narrow majority in the House. It wouldn’t take much of a top-of-ticket breeze for Republicans to flip the chamber, so we’re calling this a Toss-up.
MINNESOTA
Senate (33 D, 33 R with one vacancy): One special election in 2024; Shifts from Unrated to Leans D
House (70 D, 64 R): Toss-up
The Democrats (or as they’re known in Minnesota, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party) have enacted a generally liberal agenda in Minnesota under unified control with Democrat Tim Walz as governor. Walz is now the running mate for Harris. Could that help Democrats down-ballot? It’s hard to know.
The House will likely be decided by close contests in about 10 House districts.
The Senate, for its part, was not supposed to be having any elections until 2026. But the early departure of Morrison to focus on her run for the U.S. House triggered a special election that will determine the chamber’s majority. The district has become bluer, and Morrison won her seat in 2022 by double digits, so we’re rating the chamber Leans Democratic.
Another quirk in the Senate involves Democratic state Sen. Nicole Mitchell. She won her district by 17 points in 2022 but was charged in April with felony burglary for breaking into her stepmother’s home, a four-hour drive northwest from her Twin Cities-area district, in the middle of the night. She has said she wanted family objects her stepmother had kept from her. The DFL majority kept her in the Senate during the final weeks of the session in order to maintain their one-seat edge. Mitchell spurned calls by Walz and DFL party chair Ken Martin to resign, and she eventually cast the deciding vote that effectively blocked a vote on her own expulsion. Her seat won’t be up in November, but it’s unclear whether her actions could motivate some voters to punish her party.
Finally, if Harris and Walz win nationally, Minnesota’s constitution requires that the lieutenant governor become governor, with the Senate president filling the vacancy in the lieutenant governor’s office. None of this would occur until after the election, but it could result in yet another vacant Senate seat, another temporarily tied chamber, and another special election in 2025.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Senate (14 R, 10 D): Leans R
House (198 R, 193 D): Toss-up
New Hampshire’s small Senate and large House are known for flipping partisan control: Since 2008, the Senate has changed hands 3 times and the House has flipped 5 times.
Lines favorable to Republicans should help the GOP maintain its modest edge in the Senate; it’s rated Leans Republican. But the House has been teetering on the edge of a Democratic takeover since the 2022 election, so we’re calling it a Toss-up.
For the first time in a while, there aren’t too many national currents shaping New Hampshire politics in an election year: Harris looks poised to win the state in the presidential contest, there’s no U.S. Senate race, and the two U.S. House seats are not among the top tier of most competitive contests.
Instead, the big race this year is the open-seat gubernatorial race between Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig; most analysts, including the Crystal Ball, rate it a Toss-up.
But even if Ayotte were to nudge ahead in the race, she is unlikely to produce coattails as solid as those of outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu, a relatively moderate Republican who won his last term by a 16-point margin. Sununu’s popularity was widely thought to have helped bolster Republican electoral success in the legislature in recent cycles.
PENNSYLVANIA
Senate (28 R, 22 D): Leans R
House (102 D, 101 R after Democrats won a pair of special elections in September to maintain their majority): Toss-up
Pennsylvania is a crucial presidential state and one with a key U.S. Senate race. Republicans hold the Senate, while Democrats have been in charge in the House, although the chamber has been so close that Democrats have needed to win some special elections to maintain their numerical edge.
Republicans are modestly favored to hold the Senate, where half the seats are up, but the House is a pure Toss-up.
WISCONSIN
Senate (22 R, 10 D): Likely R
Assembly (64 R, 34 D): Leans R
The state Supreme Court ruled that legislative maps needed to be redrawn in a way that’s less tilted toward the GOP. The resulting maps are now getting their first test; all Assembly seats and half the Senate seats will be up. The Democrats should be able to gain seats in both chambers; there’s even talk within the party of positive upward energy for Democrats from legislative seats being competitive for the first time in many years.
Still, flipping either GOP-held chamber in the space of one election, particularly the Senate, will be an uphill battle for Democrats.
Other states that aren’t competitive for a chamber flip, but are worth keeping an eye on
FLORIDA
Senate (28 R, 12 D): Safe R
House (83 R, 36 D): Safe R
In Florida, Republicans have controlled both legislative chambers for the past three decades. That won’t change in 2024; the party is well-positioned with supermajorities in both chambers, and party registration trends have been going the GOP’s way in recent years. (Of course, this all assumes no major obstacles to voting from the recent hurricanes.)
Still, after reaching or matching new lows after a 2022 Republican landslide, Democrats may have hit their floor in the Sunshine State, and the party is hoping for a boost from an abortion rights ballot measure as well as from the presidential race this year. Florida Democrats are also playing up the fact that they’re fielding candidates in every state House contest for the first time in years.
In essence, Florida Democrats are playing the long game: Flip a few seats in 2024, make a play to end the GOP supermajorities after that, and steadily gain ground in the cycles after that. It’s an ambitious plan, and it would take years to pay off, if it happens at all.
MONTANA
Senate (34 R, 16 D): Likely R
House (68 R, 32 D): Likely R
Republicans currently hold a supermajority in both chambers in Montana, where the governor, Greg Gianforte, is also a Republican. But even though continued GOP legislative control is not in question in Montana, their supermajority is very much on the line.
Eccentrically among states, Montana redistricts prior to elections in years ending in “4” rather than “2,” so the districts are new this year. In the House in particular, this has opened up some opportunities for Democrats, especially in or near several Montana cities.
Republicans acknowledge that the loss of a few House seats is likely, but precisely how many remains to be seen. A Democratic gain of 6 seats in the House is considered feasible.
The chances for Democratic gains in the Senate are slimmer, perhaps 2 seats, but even that would undo the GOP supermajority in that chamber.
NORTH CAROLINA
Senate (30 R, 20 D): Likely R
House (72 R, 48 D): Likely R
The Republican margins in both chambers of North Carolina’s legislature are large enough to ensure the party’s continued majority in both chambers. But whether the GOP can maintain its supermajorities in both chambers is less certain. Republicans hold exactly 60% of the seats in each chamber, enough to override vetoes by outgoing Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.
The GOP is better positioned to maintain its supermajority in the Senate; the House is more precarious. In the House, they hold a supermajority by one seat, and that seat is occupied by Tricia Cotham, who switched from Democratic to Republican after her last election.
The presidential race will undoubtedly have an impact down-ballot; Harris is widely expected to perform better in the state than Biden would have. The highly public implosion of Republican gubernatorial nominee and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is another factor that could potentially help Democrats on the margins. A wild card is what impact post-Hurricane Helene voting challenges could have for hard-hit parts of western North Carolina.
TEXAS
Senate (19 R, 12 D): Safe R
House (86 R, 64 D): Safe R
There are too few competitive seats in the general election to give Democrats much of a chance to gain ground; even running the table wouldn’t get Democrats to a majority. But if Texas Democratic voters are energized by the presidential race and the chance to oust GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, some marginal gains are possible.
Louis Jacobson is a Senior Columnist for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. He is also the chief correspondent at the fact-checking website PolitiFact and is senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024. He was senior author of the Almanac’s 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 editions and a contributing writer for the 2000 and 2004 editions. |