| Dear Readers: Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson assesses a series of state-level contests for the Crystal Ball. Earlier this cycle, he provided overviews of state supreme court races, statewide ballot issues, and state legislatures. Today he takes a look at the down-ballot statewide elections in the final pre-election installment of this series for 2024. The Crystal Ball does not issue formal race ratings for these races as part of our normal coverage (we reserve those “official” ratings for the Electoral College, Senate, House, and governors).
— The Editors |
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— In 2024, there are 10 contests for attorney general, 7 for secretary of state, and 5 for lieutenant governorships that are elected on their own rather than as part of a ticket with the gubernatorial nominee.
— Only two states have genuinely competitive races for any of these offices—North Carolina for all 3 offices, and Pennsylvania for attorney general.
— With this analysis, we’re shifting the ratings for two races: Oregon’s attorney general race moves from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic, and North Carolina’s lieutenant governor race goes from Leans Democratic to Toss-up.
2024’s down-ballot statewide clashes
While the state positions of attorney general, secretary of state, and lieutenant governor are important in the realms of both policy and politics, the 2024 election cycle continues to be pretty sleepy where these offices are concerned.
This year, there will be 10 contests for attorney general, 7 for secretary of state, and 5 for lieutenant governorships that are elected on their own rather than as part of a ticket with the gubernatorial nominee.
Since we last analyzed these contests in July, not a whole lot has changed.
As before, only 2 states have competitive races in any of these categories — North Carolina for all 3 offices, and Pennsylvania for attorney general.
In 16 of the 22 races in these 3 categories, the contests rate as either Safe Republican or Safe Democratic in our rankings, even though a whopping 12 of these races involve open seats. (Eight of the outgoing officeholders ran or are running for governor, a sign that these offices can be key stepping stones to higher office.)
Two contests rate in our “likely” category. Indiana’s attorney general, Republican Todd Rokita, is facing a somewhat more challenging race than other officeholders in solidly red states, leading us to place the contest in the Likely Republican category. The open seat race for Oregon attorney general rates Likely Democratic.
With this analysis, our last before Election Day, we are shifting the ratings for two races: Oregon’s attorney general race, which had previously been Safe Democratic, and North Carolina’s race for lieutenant governor goes from Leans Democratic to Toss-up.
Here’s a rundown of each race for AG, secretary of state, and lieutenant governor for 2024, based on interviews with political observers and with updates to previous reporting where relevant.
As in the past, we rate contests in descending order, from most likely to be won by the Republicans to most likely to be won by the Democrats, including within each rating category (Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Leans Republican, Toss-up, Leans Democratic, Likely Democratic, and Safe Democratic). We will start with attorneys general and then proceed to secretaries of state and lieutenant governors.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Utah: Open seat (Sean Reyes, R, is retiring)
After a series of high-profile controversies, incumbent Sean Reyes announced he would not seek a third full term as AG. Reyes becomes the third consecutive Republican attorney general in Utah to leave office under fire, dating back more than a decade.
Derek Brown, a former state GOP chair, former state representative, and lobbyist, won the Republican nomination with 44% of the vote.
Attorney Rudy Bautista is the Democratic nominee, and Michelle Quist, an attorney and former Salt Lake Tribune columnist, is another notable candidate running under the banner of the centrist United Utah Party. Also running are Libertarian W. Andrew McCullough and Independent Austin Hepworth.
Despite the history of GOP controversy in the office, Brown remains the heavy frontrunner.
West Virginia: Open seat (Patrick Morrisey, R, is running for governor)
Two-term state auditor and former state delegate J.B. McCuskey won the GOP primary. McCuskey, who dropped out of the gubernatorial race to run for AG, is seen as a rising star with an establishment lean, rather than a Trumpy profile. Observers credit him with a successful tenure as auditor, raising the office’s visibility.
Attorney Teresa Toriseva won the Democratic primary but has not gained traction. In this solidly Republican state, McCuskey should be a lock to win.
Missouri: Republican Andrew Bailey
When Eric Schmitt left the AG office to become a U.S. senator, GOP Gov. Mike Parson appointed Bailey, his general counsel, to fill the vacancy. Now Bailey is running for a term of his own, and with the power of incumbency, he has been pursuing some red-meat conservative policies from the AG office.
In the Aug. 6 primary, Bailey defeated Will Scharf, a former federal prosecutor and onetime aide to then-Gov. Eric Greitens, a Republican who resigned the office amid a personal scandal. Bailey, who won by nearly a 2-to-1 margin, faces Democrat Elad Gross, who lost the 2020 Democratic primary for AG.
Bailey is the prohibitive favorite.
Montana: Republican Austin Knudsen
In a state that has become solidly Republican for state-level offices, Knudsen is the heavy favorite over Democrat Ben Alke, an attorney from Bozeman. While Alke is a political novice, he comes from a political family; his father is a longtime lobbyist in Helena with ties to both Democrats and Republicans.
It doesn’t seem likely to stop his reelection, but Knudsen is dealing with an investigation into allegations of attorney misconduct by him and his staff that could complicate his service after reelection.
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Indiana: Republican Todd Rokita
Rokita has been highly visible—and controversial—particularly for pursuing sanctions against a physician who spoke to the media about the case of a 10-year-old rape victim that attracted national attention. Comments Rokita made on Fox News about the physician later drew him a reprimand from the Indiana Supreme Court, making him the second consecutive Republican AG in the state to be reprimanded by the court. In turn, Rokita has adopted a Trumpian, bare-knuckled response.
Establishment Republicans already weren’t thrilled with Rokita, but he survived without opposition to become the nominee in the Republican nominating convention.
Democrats nominated Destiny Wells, an Afghanistan War veteran and attorney who lost to Republican Diego Morales in the 2022 secretary of state contest.
Given that no Democrat has won a statewide contest in Indiana since 2012, Wells is a decided underdog in the race. But Rokita has inspired just enough unease within his own party to keep this race at Likely Republican.
TOSS-UP
North Carolina: Open seat (Josh Stein, D, is running for governor)
North Carolina, already home to a bevy of competitive races up and down the ballot, became an even more crucial political battleground when Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee, making the Tar Heel State a more plausible Democratic target in the presidential race. That has only upped the intensity in the open-seat attorney general race.
The two nominees for the open seat are sitting members of Congress: Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Jeff Jackson. Beyond that shared background, they differ sharply in ideology and style.
Bishop is a favorite of the GOP’s conservative wing, having been a member of the House Freedom Caucus and a thorn in the side of former Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Jackson—who joined the AG race after effectively being drawn out of a seat in a Republican re-map last year—has attracted a statewide and even national following for his posts on TikTok.
With so much else going on in the state politically, this race remains a pure Toss-up.
Pennsylvania: Open seat (Appointed AG Michelle Henry, D, is not running)
Former Auditor General Eugene DePasquale, a Democrat, faces York County District Attorney Dave Sunday, a Republican.
Billionaire Jeff Yass has helped support a pro-Sunday ad blitz, though it’s unclear how much those ads will break through, given the blizzard of commercials for the presidential and U.S. Senate races. The AG race has always been dependent on the top-of-ticket results, and that’s entirely up in the air. Like North Carolina, Pennsylvania is a pure Toss-up for AG.
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
Oregon: Open seat (Ellen Rosenblum, D, is retiring) (Shift from Safe Democratic)
Rosenblum is retiring after first winning the post in 2012. Former Democratic House Speaker Dan Rayfield and Republican Will Lathrop, a former prosecutor in Yamhill and Marion counties, won their primaries easily.
Lathrop has pitched himself as someone who isn’t a career politician, in contrast to Rayfield, who’s been a legislator for 10 years, two of them as House speaker. Lathrop has fared surprisingly well in fundraising for a Republican in this blue state, and his law-and-order pitch has made some inroads, even though it’s district attorneys in Oregon’s 36 counties, not the attorney general, who initiate most criminal prosecutions.
An Oregon Republican hasn’t won an AG election since 1988, and Rayfield is expected to keep that streak alive. But in recognition of Lathrop’s better-than-expected performance so far, we’re shifting this from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic.
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
Vermont: Democrat Charity Clark
Clark was elected AG in 2022. She will have no trouble winning a second two-year term over her Republican opponent, Berlin Town Selectman Ture Nelson.
Washington state: Open seat (Bob Ferguson, D, is running for governor)
Ferguson leaves big shoes to fill as he runs for governor, but Washington state Democrats have a deep bench.
Former U.S. Attorney Nicholas Brown (a Democrat who has also competed on Survivor, the reality TV show) won one of two general election slots in the Aug. 6 primary, over state Sen. Manka Dhingra (D), herself a formidable candidate. Brown is considered a rising star and is well-liked within the party.
He faces Republican Pete Serrano, the mayor of Pasco and an attorney who has challenged gun laws and COVID restrictions. Particularly with Trump at the top of the ticket driving Democratic turnout, Brown is the overwhelming favorite.
SECRETARY OF STATE
SAFE REPUBLICAN
West Virginia: Open seat (Mac Warner, R, lost a primary for governor)
The GOP nominee is state economic development official and former state party chair Kris Warner, whose brother is the outgoing secretary of state. Both Warners are well-known members of the Republican establishment in West Virginia.
The Democratic nominee is attorney Thornton Cooper. But West Virginia is now solidly red, and Warner is the overwhelming favorite to keep this office in the family.
Montana: Republican Christi Jacobsen
Jacobsen is running for a new term. She faces Democrat Jesse Mullen, a publisher who owns several small-town newspapers. Mullen ran for state Senate in 2022 and lost. Jacobsen is a heavy favorite.
Missouri: Open seat (Jay Ashcroft, R, lost a primary bid for governor)
State Sen. Denny Hoskins won an eight-way Republican primary with 24% of the vote, defeating several current and former state legislators in the process.
He faces state Rep. Barbara Phifer, who won the three-way Democratic primary with 41%. Despite his small margin of victory, Hoskins should have no trouble winning in a state as red as Missouri.
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
North Carolina: Democrat Elaine Marshall
Despite North Carolina’s slight Republican lean, Marshall has become something of an institution in the state, having first been elected as secretary of state in 1996, in a contest against NASCAR star Richard Petty. No Republican has won an election for North Carolina secretary of state since 1872. Though Marshall typically has been helped by better-than-average support in the rural areas, her coalition has steadily become more like that of a national Democrat, with backing in urban and suburban areas. Marshall won her most recent race by only about 2 percentage points in 2020, so the 2024 election is competitive.
After winning a competitive primary by double digits, Gaston County Commissioner and former Stanley Mayor Chad Brown is the GOP nominee.
In politically busy North Carolina, this race ranks no higher than fifth in prominence this year, which could enable Marshall’s incumbency to carry the day. But the contest is certainly competitive and could be determined by which party does best at the top of the ticket. We’re keeping it at Leans Democratic.
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
Oregon: Open seat (Appointed AG LaVonne Griffin-Valade, D, is not running for a full term)
Democrat Shemia Fagan resigned as secretary of state following a scandal regarding consulting work for a cannabis company. Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek appointed Griffin-Valade, a former elected auditor for both Portland city and Multnomah County, but Griffin-Valade has declined to seek a full term. (In Oregon, the secretary of state is next in line for the governorship, as there is no lieutenant governor.)
On the Democratic side, term-limited state Treasurer Tobias Read decisively defeated his primary opponent, state Sen. James Manning Jr. Read has been campaigning aggressively, and he’s raised about 10 times the cash as his Republican opponent, state Sen. Dennis Linthicum. Linthicum was barred from running for his seat again after the enactment of a voter-approved provision that targeted unexcused absences in the legislature; the Republican minority had often used coordinated absences to deny a quorum and block the Democratic majority.
Read is on his way to his third statewide victory, and he’ll only be 55 in 2030, when Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek could be finishing a second term.
Washington: Democrat Steve Hobbs
Hobbs, who was appointed to the office in 2021 and won the remainder of an unexpired term in 2022, will have no trouble winning again in 2024. He faces Republican tax preparer Dale Whitaker.
Vermont: Democrat Sarah Copeland Hanzas
Copeland Hanzas, who won her first term as secretary of state in 2022, faces only perennial candidate H. Brooke Paige, who is simultaneously running for auditor.
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Missouri: Open seat (Mike Kehoe, R, is running for governor)
David Wasinger won the six-way Republican primary to succeed Kehoe with 31% of the vote on the strength of a Trumpy approach, defeating better-known candidates including state Sens. Holly Rehder and Lincoln Hough. Wasinger’s ads said he would say “adios, amigos” to illegal immigrants who venture into Missouri.
The Democratic nominee is state Rep. Richard Brown, who is at an overwhelming disadvantage in a state this red.
TOSS-UP
North Carolina: Open seat (Mark Robinson, R, is running for governor) (Shift from Leans Democratic)
Robinson’s candidacy for governor may have imploded amid revelations about online sexual activities and controversial comments, but the race to succeed him as lieutenant governor has tightened.
In an 11-way primary, Republicans nominated Hal Weatherman, a longtime political operative in the state, including service with then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest. He won less than 20% of the vote in the first round, but he won 74% in the low-turnout runoff election.
The Democratic nominee, state Sen. and former state Rep. Rachel Hunt, easily won her primary. Hunt is best known for her last name: She’s the daughter of popular four-term Democratic Gov. Jim Hunt. While the elder Hunt has been out of office since 2001, a lot of current voters either pulled the lever for him or at least know something about him.
Weatherman is running a highly visible and stronger-than-expected campaign, giving him a chance to overcome the advantages of Hunt’s last name. This race now looks like a pure Toss-up.
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
Vermont: Democrat-Progressive David Zuckerman
Initially, it seemed that Zuckerman might have trouble winning a second-straight two-year term and fourth term overall, because some Vermont Democrats consider him too far to the left. But he has the nomination of both the Democratic and Progressive parties, and he’s the favorite against Republican John Rodgers, a former Democratic state legislator who has positioned himself as a voice for those disaffected with taxes and spending.
We’re keeping this race in the Safe Democratic category.
Delaware: Open seat (Bethany Hall-Long, D, lost a primary bid for governor)
In the Sept. 10 primary, state Sen. Kyle Evans Gay won the Democratic nomination with 48% over state Rep. Sherry Dorsey Walker and retired Army Col. and state party vice chair Debbie Harrington.
The GOP nominee is former state Rep, Ruth Briggs King. She represented her southern Delaware district for 14 years, but the odds are against her winning statewide in a state as blue as Delaware.
Washington: Democrat Denny Heck
Incumbent Democratic Lt. Gov. Denny Heck, a former U.S. House member, is running for a second term. The Republican nominee is frequent candidate Dan Matthews; Heck is a shoo-in.
| Louis Jacobson is a Senior Columnist for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. He is also the chief correspondent at the fact-checking website PolitiFact and is senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024. He was senior author of the Almanac’s 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 editions and a contributing writer for the 2000 and 2004 editions. |