The 2008 Electoral College Road Map
Alaska
Outlook: Likely Republican
3 Electoral Votes (3 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 25.55%
Alaska has been a Republican-led state for many years now, as the GOP currently controls both U.S. Senate seats, the at-large congressional seat, the governorship, and both houses of the state Legislature. Nationally, Alaska has only given its three electoral votes to a Democrat once, in Lyndon B. Johnson’s landslide win in 1964. However, there has been growing discord in the Alaskan GOP over the last few years, leaving the Democrats optimistic about accomplishing their pipe dream of making the Last Frontier competitive.
Alabama
Outlook: Solid Republican
9 Electoral Votes (9 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 25.62%
Alabama’s nine electoral votes have not gone to a Democrat since 1976, though the Democrats due currently have the edge in both chambers of the state house. However, a Republican governor and two Republican U.S. Senators exemplify the typical nature of this state which George W. Bush won by 25% in 2004 – a ten point improvement over 2000.
Arkansas
Outlook: Likely Republican
6 Electoral Votes (6 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 9.76%
Arkansas is a conservative state, yet it is dominated by Democrats. Both of its U.S. Senate seats are occupied by Democrats, as are three of its four seats in Congress, the governor’s mansion, and the majority of both chambers of its state Legislature. Of course, most of these Democratic representatives are of the Blue Dog Democrat variety–conservatives who do not agree with some of the national party positions. This probably explains why George W. Bush won Arkansas by 6 percent in 2000 and by nearly 10 percent in 2004. With Barack Obama toeing closer to the Democratic Party line than most Arkansan Democrats, he will be hard-pressed to capture the state’s electoral votes.
Arizona
Outlook: Solid Republican
10 Electoral Votes (10 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 10.47%
Arizona is a state with a long Republican history, one led by such figures as Barry Goldwater and now John McCain. Still, in recent years the state has become more moderate, with a popular Democratic governor and an even split in congressional representation in Washington. Bill Clinton even managed to win the state in the 1996 presidential election. Since then, George W. Bush won the state by ten points in 2004, a four-point improvement over his 2000 victory. With McCain as the Republican nominee for president, though, it will be tough for the Democrats to make a play for Arizona’s ten electoral votes.
California
Outlook: Solid Democratic
55 Electoral Votes (55 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 9.95%
Despite Arnold Schwarzenegger’s towering presence in the governor’s mansion, the state is overwhelmingly Democratic. Two senators, 34 of its 53 Congressional districts and the state Assembly are under Democratic control. The Democrats can always count on California’s electoral votes, currently 55, being added to their total on election night, which is nice considering its about a fifth of the total needed to be elected president.
Colorado
Outlook: Toss Up
9 Electoral Votes (9 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 4.67%
Colorado has progressively purpled over the last few years, as Democrats gained one Senate seat in 2004 and have a shot of grabbing the other this November, while a majority of the state’s seven congressional districts are also Blue. On top of all this, the governorship and both chambers of the state Assembly are controlled by Democrats. Though George W. Bush won the Rocky Mountain State in both 2000 and 2004, the victory margin was nearly halved the second time around. In 2008, Colorado’s nine electoral votes will be heavily targeted by both sides.
Connecticut
Outlook: Solid Democratic
7 Electoral Votes (7 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 10.37%
Except for the antics of vacillating Joe Lieberman and a very popular moderate Republican governor, Connecticut is a reliably Blue state. The Democrats control the state Legislature and both U.S. Senate seats, as well as four of the five congressional districts. The Constitution State last went Red in 1988, and in recent years has been Blue by double digits as Al Gore won there by 17 percent and John Kerry by about 10 percent.
District of Columbia
Outlook: Solid Democratic
3 Electoral Votes (3 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 79.84%
Though it lacks representation in Congress, the District of Columbia has three electoral votes to give out every four years. Since it acquired this right in 1972, no Democratic presidential candidate has ever lost in the nation’s capital, and in 2004, John Kerry won it by nearly eighty percent, a showing that was two or so points better than Al Gore’s victory there in 2000. We know this year’s buzzword is change, but the nation’s capital is one place where Barack Obama will be pleased to see change is exceedingly unlikely.
Delaware
Outlook: Solid Democratic
3 Electoral Votes (3 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 7.59%
Delaware, like most other Mid-Atlantic states, has a Democratic lean. Both U.S. Senators are Democrats, as are the governor and the state senate. The state’s at-large member of the House is a Republican and the state house is controlled by the GOP but in presidential elections as of late, the state has not been that competitive. Al Gore won the First State by thirteen percent in 2000 and John Kerry won by about eight percent in 2004. Considering how Barack Obama did well in Delaware’s Democratic primary, it would seem a good bet that Delaware will remain blue in 2008.
Florida
Outlook: Toss Up
27 Electoral Votes (27 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 5.01%
For the past two elections, Florida has played the role of toss-up. It remains to seen if the fact that the governor is Republican, the state Legislature is Republican, and about two-thirds of the state’s congressmen are Republicans will help deliver the Sunshine State’s 27 electoral votes to the GOP in November.
Georgia
Outlook: Likely Republican
15 Electoral Votes (15 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 16.6%
Georgia is a very Republican state: both Senators, the governor, both chambers of the state Legislature, and a majority of its congressmen is Republican. The Peach State went to George W. Bush by double-digit margins in both 2000 and 2004. So what could possibly make Georgia competitive? Barack Obama dominated its Democratic primary and a combination of a very high-turnout among African-Americans and Bob Barr’s (formerly a Republican Congressman from Georgia) Libertarian candidacy could put the state’s 15 electoral votes within reach of Obama. If Obama did somehow manage to snatch them up, it would be the first time the state has gone Blue since it was one of Jimmy Carter’s few wins in 1980 against Ronald Reagan.
Hawaii
Outlook: Solid Democratic
4 Electoral Votes (4 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 8.74%
Hawaii, birthplace of Senator Barack Obama, has a strong Democratic heritage. The state has voted Blue in every presidential election since 1984 and in 2004 John Kerry won by a comfortable 9 percent margin. Hawaii’s senators and congressmen are all Democrats, a good sign for Obama in the Aloha State.
Iowa
Outlook: Leans Democratic
7 Electoral Votes (7 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 0.67%
In 2004, Iowa was one of the closest contests in the nation, with George W. Bush winning by a mere 0.67 percent. In 2000, the state had favored Gore, and Barack Obama will doubtless hope that the pendulum swings back into the Blue camp in November. Three of the Hawkeye State’s five congressmen are Democrats, with one senator from each party. Seven Electoral College votes are up for grabs here, making it a likely candidate for concerted efforts by both sides this year.
Idaho
Outlook: Solid Republican
4 Electoral Votes (4 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 38.12%
Idaho is one of the most resolutely Red states in the nation, with not a single Democratic senator or congressman. It supported George W. Bush with a greater than 38 percent margin in 2004, making Idaho the third most loyal state to the GOP that year. The state has not favored a Democrat for president since 1964 and Barack Obama would be foolish to go mining for votes in the Gem State this fall.
Illinois
Outlook: Solid Democratic
21 Electoral Votes (22 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 10.34%
Illinois isn’t red or white, it is Blue all over. Its citizens for voted for the Democrat consistently since 1988 and they are represented by two Democrats in the U.S. Senate and another in the statehouse. In the last election, John Kerry defeated Republican George W. Bush by 10 percent. Considering Barack Obama’s connection to Chicago, it is highly likely that he will retain the Prairie State’s 21 Electoral Votes.
Indiana
Outlook: Solid Republican
11 Electoral Votes (12 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 20.68%
A Democratic candidate has not been successful in Indiana since 1964. While there is parity in the state’s congressional delegation, the Hoosier State’s 11 electoral votes were won by George W. Bush by a 21 percent margin in 2004. Look for a repeat, to the benefit of John McCain, this November.
Kansas
Outlook: Solid Republican
6 Electoral Votes (6 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 25.38%
Kansas stood out in the last election as one of the Reddest states in the Union. Electing George W. Bush by a 25 percent margin, currently both of the state’s senators are from the GOP, the state’s congressmen are split in half, and the state is led by Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius. The Democrats have not been successful presidentially in Kansas since 1964, and it is unlikely that this trend will change anytime soon.
Kentucky
Outlook: Solid Republican
8 Electoral Votes (8 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 19.86%
Interestingly, for a state which elected George W. Bush by a 20 percent margin, Kentucky’s current Governor Steve Beshear hails from the Democratic camp. On the other hand, both senators and two-thirds of Kentucky’s U.S. House delegation are members of the GOP. In the end, John McCain probably will not lose too much sleep over the eight Electoral College votes up for grabs in The Bluegrass State.
Louisiana
Outlook: Solid Republican
9 Electoral Votes (9 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 14.51%
Unsurprisingly for a state in the Deep South, Louisiana voted for Republican George W. Bush in the previous two presidential elections, last time by a 14.5 percent margin. While one of the Pelican State’s senators and three of its seven congressmen are Democrats, Senator Obama still has a long way to go if he is going to repeat Bill Clinton’s success here in 1996.
Massachusetts
Outlook: Solid Democratic
12 Electoral Votes (12 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 25.16%
In 2004, Republicans were subjected to a 25 percent defeat by John Kerry in this Blue bastion. All ten of the Bay State’s congressmen are Democrats, as are both of its senators and Governor Deval Patrick. Given the considerable unpopularity of the current administration in this Northeast state, it is hard to imagine the GOP having any chance in a state which has not chosen a Republican presidential candidate since the landslide of 1984.
Maryland
Outlook: Solid Democratic
10 Electoral Votes (10 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 12.98%
Democratic nominee John Kerry fared well in Maryland in 2004, outpolling George W. Bush by a 13 percent margin. Indeed, Maryland remains a fairly Blue place. Six out of eight of the state’s congressmen are Democrats, the same as both senators and Governor Martin O’Malley. John McCain faces an uphill battle in the Free State, which has consistently voted Democrat since 1988. Crab cakes won’t likely be on the menu at the Republican election night party in November.
Maine
Outlook: Solid Democratic
4 Electoral Votes (4 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 9%
With a population of just over one million, the Pine Tree State has been traditionally Blue, not supporting a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Interestingly, however, both of the state’s U.S. senators are currently Republican. Despite this, George W. Bush lost the state by a 9 percent margin in 2004, a fate Democrats wish on John McCain this November.
Michigan
Outlook: Toss Up
17 Electoral Votes (18 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 3.42%
Michigan is likely to be one of the key states come November. Nine of the state’s 15 congressmen are Republican, albeit both senators and Governor Jennifer Granholm are all Democrats. George W. Bush only lost by a 3 percent margin in 2004 and the John McCain camp will be hoping for the Great Lakes State’s 17 Electoral College votes this fall.
Minnesota
Outlook: Likely Democratic
10 Electoral Votes (10 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 3.48%
Last time around Minnesota supported John Kerry by a 3.5 percent margin. Its Senate delegation is split with one seat on each side of the aisle, and it sent three Republicans and five Democrats to the U.S. House in 2006. Despite the close competition in recent years, the Gopher State has the longest record of Democratic support of any state in the union. It was the only state to go Blue in 1984, and has not cast its electoral votes for a Republican since 1972.
Missouri
Outlook: Leans Republican
11 Electoral Votes (11 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 7.2%
Missouri chose George W. Bush by a 7 percent margin in 2004, its second election in a row supporting the GOP since Bill Clinton captured its Electoral Votes in 1996. The Show Me State has five Republican congressmen and four Democrats, to complement its split Senate delegation. Perhaps a shade too Red to be an obvious battleground, but either side will have to put in some effort to add Missouri to their column this November.
Mississippi
Outlook: Likely Republican
6 Electoral Votes (7 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 19.69%
Mississippi has not elected a Democrat since the landslide of 1976. Last time around, George W. Bush won by 20 percent and both of the state’s senators are Republican, although three of the four congressmen are Democrats. It will be interesting to see what impact the state’s 34 percent African-American population will have on the Democratic vote. As things stand, the odds are certainly stacked against Barack Obama in the Magnolia State.
Montana
Outlook: Likely Republican
3 Electoral Votes (3 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 20.5%
Montana is a state that has become a lighter hue of Red over the last four years. Starting with Brian Schweitzer’s gubernatorial victory in 2004 and continuing with Democrat Jon Tester’s victory in the 2006 Senate race over Conrad Burns, Montana has become competitive for both parties. The state Senate is in Democratic hands while the state House is Republican, as is the state’s lone member of Congress. Though George W. Bush won there by 25 percent in 2000 and by around 20 in 2004, Democrats have hope that one-party rule is a thing of the past.
North Carolina
Outlook: Leans Republican
15 Electoral Votes (15 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 12.43%
The Tar Heel State is going to be competitive in 2008, but perhaps not at the presidential level. Statewide, the governor’s mansion and the state Legislature are currently all under Democratic control, but 2008 is an election year for governor with a competitive race in the making. Nationally, a majority of the congressional seats are held by Democrats as well but both senators from North Carolina are Republicans, although one is in facing an increasingly fierce Democratic challenge. George W. Bush won by between 12 and 13 percent in both 2000 and 2004, but either side would be foolish to write off this state’s 15 electoral votes.
North Dakota
Outlook: Likely Republican
3 Electoral Votes (3 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 27.36%
Like their neighbors to the south, North Dakotans pride themselves on picking the best representatives for their state to go to Washington, regardless of party. At the moment, the state government is dominated by Republicans, with control of the governorship and both chambers of the state General Assembly. However, since 1992 both U.S. Senators from this state have been Democrats, and both have won reelection by wide margins each time. The state’s at-large member of the House is also a Democrat. Considering that the state went to George W. Bush by nearly 30 percent in both 2000 and 2004, it is very surprising that this state could have so many Democratic representatives. Even though both sides have cause for optimism, Republicans are much more likely to add North Dakota’s three electoral votes to their tally in November.
Nebraska
Outlook: Solid Republican
5 Electoral Votes (5 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 33.22%
Nebraska is certainly a Red state, as evidenced by its Republican governor, lack of Democratic members in the House, heavily Republican unicameral legislature, and 33 percent margin of victory for George W. Bush in 2004. The only Democrat on the national scene from Nebraska is Ben Nelson, who may be the most conservative Democrat in Washington. Its five electoral votes are John McCain’s to lose, which could happen, since its election rules state that if one of its congressional districts goes Blue, Barack Obama stands to gain that electoral vote.
New Hampshire
Outlook: Toss Up
4 Electoral Votes (4 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 1.37%
Traditionally one of the most important states in picking each party’s candidates, New Hampshire has been a swing state in general elections too, favoring George W. Bush in 2000 but flip-flopping to support John Kerry in 2004. Catching up with the rest of New England, the state has been trending Blue as of late, as both of its congressional seats were won by Democratic challengers in 2006. The governor and both chambers in the state Legislature are also Democratic now, though both Senate seats are held by Republicans. New Hampshire has been good to John McCain in both his presidential bids, however, and it is a notoriously hard state to read.
New Jersey
Outlook: Solid Democratic
15 Electoral Votes (15 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 6.68%
New Jersey seems to tease Republicans every four years by making them think they can actually take the state’s 15 electoral votes out of the Democratic column, only for the Garden State to go Blue by a wide margin. The state government, both the governorship and the state Legislature, are controlled by the Democrats, as are both Senate seats, good indicators of the state’s political leanings. Congressionally, the state is about 50-50, with seven Democrats and six Republicans, a situation that shows the split between the Redder southern part of the state and the very Blue northern area close to New York City.
New Mexico
Outlook: Leans Democratic
5 Electoral Votes (5 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 0.79%
New Mexico has been extremely close in the last two presidential elections, as Al Gore in 2000 and George W. Bush in 2004 each won by the skin of their teeth. However, this time around New Mexico has more of a Democratic lean. The governor is a Democrat, the state assembly is controlled by the Democrats, one Senator is a Democrat and the other seat will likely go Blue in 2008. The only majority the Republicans have is in congressional districts, where they control two of the state’s three. New Mexico will again be a very competitive state in 2008, though the Democrats may have the edge this time around.
Nevada
Outlook: Toss Up
5 Electoral Votes (5 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 2.59%
Like its western neighbors New Mexico and Colorado, Nevada could be in play in 2008. With one Democrat (Majority Leader Harry Reid) and one Republican in the Senate, two Republicans and one Democrat in the House, a Republican governor, a Democratic state House, and a Republican state Senate, Nevada is obviously very split politically. Whichever presidential candidate sees the split come out in their favor will be the beneficiary of the Silver State’s five electoral votes.
New York
Outlook: Solid Democratic
31 Electoral Votes (31 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 18.29%
New York has long been a Democratic stronghold in national elections, as it last went to a Republican in Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide. The only thing Republicans control in the Empire State is the state Senate, while Democrats hold both Senate seats, 23 of the 29 congressional districts, the governorship, and the state House. Considering Al Gore won the state by 25 percent in 2000 and John Kerry by nearly 20 percent in 2004, Barack Obama must be feeling good about New York’s 31 electoral votes.
Ohio
Outlook: Toss Up
21 Electoral Votes (21 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 2.11%
No Republican has been elected president of the United States without winning Ohio. The state looks to be an incredibly important battleground again in 2008. This time, however, Democrats control the governor’s mansion and one of the U.S. Senate seats, unlike in 2004. Still, of the true toss-ups in this race, Ohio’s 21 electoral votes will be key to winning the presidency.
Oklahoma
Outlook: Solid Republican
7 Electoral Votes (7 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 31.14%
Oklahoma is a relatively Republican state; two U.S. Senators, four of five congressional representatives and the state House are all Republican. The state does have a Democratic governor and state Senate but, on the whole, the state is Red. It showed this in 2004 when George W. Bush won the Sooner State’s eight electoral votes by over 30 percent, roughly a ten point increase from his win there in 2000.
Oregon
Outlook: Likely Democratic
7 Electoral Votes (7 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 4.16%
Oregon was one of the few states Al Gore won in 2000 that John Kerry carried by a larger margin in 2004. Considering the edge Democrats have in the state, with control of the state Assembly, the governorship, four of the state’s five congressional districts, and one of the U.S. Senate seats, a larger victory margin than the 0.44 percent Gore won by in 2000 makes sense. Barack Obama cruised to an 18-point victory in the Oregon primary, leading to speculation that he could continue the streak of increasingly large Democratic wins.
Pennsylvania
Outlook: Toss Up
21 Electoral Votes (21 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 2.5%
Pennsylvania has been a swing state in the last two presidential elections and should be again in 2008. While it seems to lean Democratic, with two Democrats in the U.S. Senate, one in the governor’s mansion, and more Democratic congressmen than Republicans, Al Gore won here by only 4 percent in 2000. In 2004 John Kerry won by an even smaller margin?just 2.5 percent. As usual, Pennsylvania’s large number of electoral votes, 21, ought to make it key to winning the White House.
Rhode Island
Outlook: Solid Democratic
4 Electoral Votes (4 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 20.75%
Like much of New England, Rhode Island is dominated by Democrats. Both U.S. Senate seats and both congressional districts are controlled by them, as are both chambers in the state Assembly. Only a Republican governor prevents total domination of state politics by one party. In presidential elections, no Republican has won the state since Ronald Reagan’s landslide in 1984. Al Gore carried the state by 29 percent in 2000 and John Kerry won by about 21 in 2004.
South Carolina
Outlook: Solid Republican
8 Electoral Votes (8 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 17.08%
Republicans are in charge of most political entities in South Carolina: the governorship, the state Assembly, both U.S. Senate seats and two-thirds of the congressional districts. George W. Bush won there handily in both 2000 and 2004 by more than 15 points. Considering Southerner Jimmy Carter was the last Democrat running for president to win South Carolina, John McCain is the favorite to capture the Palmetto State’s eight electoral votes.
South Dakota
Outlook: Solid Republican
3 Electoral Votes (3 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 21.47%
The Mount Rushmore State’s citizens are considered to be pretty sharp politically, electing whoever will represent them best in Washington. This explains the split congressional delegation of one Democratic senator and at-large congresswoman with a Republican senator. Statewide politics are in Republican hands; so are the state’s three electoral votes every four years?South Dakota last went Democratic in LBJ’s 1964 landslide victory and George W. Bush won by more than 20 points in both 2000 and 2004.
Tennessee
Outlook: Solid Republican
11 Electoral Votes (11 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 14.27%
Tennessee is politically a mixed state, having more Democratic members in Congress than Republican, as well as a Democratic governor and state House. Both of its senators are Republicans, however, and the state Senate is controlled by the GOP. Bill Clinton won the state back in 1996, but since 2000 it has grown increasingly Republican in national elections, going to George W. Bush by three points that year and by 14 in 2004.
Texas
Outlook: Solid Republican
34 Electoral Votes (34 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 22.86%
Texas, the second-most populous state in the country, is dominated by Republicans. The governor, state Assembly, both U.S. Senate seats, and 19 of the 32 congressional districts are controlled by the GOP. While there has been talk among Democrats of putting Texas’ 34 electoral votes in play in 2008, Barack Obama will have a mountain to climb in order to do it: no Democrat has won Texas since Southerner Jimmy Carter did it in 1976 and, in 2004, George W. Bush won more than 60 percent of the vote.
Utah
Outlook: Solid Republican
5 Electoral Votes (5 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 45.54%
It is unlikely that there is a more Republican state in the United States than Utah, as it has two Republican senators, a Republican governor, and a Republican state House and Senate. Only one Democrat represents Utah: Congressman Jim Matheson, who has the bluest parts of Salt Lake City to thank for that honor. Like many of its counterparts in the Mountain Time Zone, Utah last went to a Democrat in LBJ’s 1964 win. Considering George W. Bush won over 70 percent of the vote there in 2004, this state ought to be an easy five electoral votes for John McCain to count on in 2008.
Virginia
Outlook: Toss Up
13 Electoral Votes (13 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 8.2%
Virginia, once a solidly conservative state, has seen its traditional Reddish hue turning purple, largely due to the explosion of population growth and development in northern Virginia over the last few years. With back-to-back Democratic governors, a U.S. Senate Democratic victory in 2006 over an entrenched incumbent, and the expectation of the near-certain election of former Governor Mark Warner to the state’s other Senate seat, Virginia’s political transition has placed its 13 electoral votes in play nationally, despite George W. Bush’s solid victories in the Old Dominion in 2000 and 2004.
Vermont
Outlook: Solid Democratic
3 Electoral Votes (3 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 20.14%
Vermont has an eccentric political reputation: it has venerable Democrat Patrick Leahy in the U.S. Senate alongside a self-avowed socialist, Bernie Sanders, who is technically an Independent but caucuses with the Democrats. Still, Vermont put a Republican governor, Jim Douglas, in the statehouse and will likely reelect him by a large margin this November. Historically, Vermont was once an automatic three electoral votes for Republicans; yet since 1992 the Green Mountain State has gone Democratic by ever-increasing margins, culminating with John Kerry’s win there by 20 percent in 2004.
Washington
Outlook: Solid Democratic
11 Electoral Votes (11 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 7.18%
With Democratic control of the governor’s mansion and the state Senate, as well as both U.S. Senate seats, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Washington has consistently been a Blue state. In fact, this state’s electoral votes (currently 11) have not been cast for Republican since Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1984.
Wisconsin
Outlook: Toss Up
11 Electoral Votes (11 in 2000)
Kerry won in 2004 by 0.38%
Despite Democratic control of both U.S. Senate seats in addition to the governorship, the state Senate, and a majority of the state’s congressional delegation, Wisconsin has been a crucial toss-up state in the last two presidential elections. Al Gore and John Kerry each won the state by less than 0.5 percent of the vote to garner its ten electoral votes. In 2008, it will once again be on the short list of states whose electoral votes are potentially up for grabs.
West Virginia
Outlook: Solid Republican
5 Electoral Votes (5 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 12.86%
West Virginia has long been a quirky state politically, with Democratic domination of both Senate seats in Washington, two of the state’s three congressional districts, the governor’s mansion and both state Houses. Meanwhile, it helped to elect Republican George W. Bush with a six-point margin in the state in 2000 and a margin of 13 percent in 2004. This peculiar trend may continue in 2008, especially since Hillary Clinton is not the Democratic candidate. While her husband won the Mountain State’s five electoral votes in 1992 and 1996, and she dominated the primary there, Barack Obama will likely attract fewer West Virginians.
Wyoming
Outlook: Solid Republican
3 Electoral Votes (3 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 39.79%
Except for a Democratic governor, every other principal political entity in Wyoming is controlled by the Republican Party. Considering George W. Bush’s nearly 40 point victory there in 2004 and 41 point win in 2000 (Dick Cheney grew up in Casper), this comes as no surprise–the Cowboy State is reliably Red every four years.