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2024 Rating Changes

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Electoral College rating changes

Nov. 4, 2024

State/District Old Rating New Rating
Arizona Toss-up Leans Republican
Georgia Toss-up Leans Republican
Iowa Safe Republican Likely Republican
Michigan Toss-up Leans Democratic
NE-1 Safe Republican Likely Republican
Nevada Toss-up Leans Democratic
North Carolina Toss-up Leans Republican
Pennsylvania Toss-up Leans Democratic
Wisconsin Toss-up Leans Democratic

Sept. 25, 2024

State Old Rating New Rating
NE-2 Leans Democratic Likely Democratic

Aug. 20, 2024

State Old Rating New Rating
North Carolina Leans Republican Toss-up

Aug. 7, 2024

State Old Rating New Rating
Georgia Leans Republican Toss-up
New Hampshire Leans Democratic Likely Democratic

Aug. 6, 2024

State Old Rating New Rating
Minnesota Leans Democratic Likely Democratic

July 3, 2024

State Old Rating New Rating
Michigan Leans Democratic Toss-up
Minnesota Likely Democratic Leans Democratic

June 13, 2024

State Old Rating New Rating
Alaska Likely Republican Safe Republican
Georgia Toss-up Leans Republican
Iowa Likely Republican Safe Republican
ME-2 Leans Republican Likely Republican
Ohio Likely Republican Safe Republican
Pennsylvania Leans Democratic Toss-up

Senate rating changes

Nov. 4, 2024

Senator Old Rating New Rating
Sherrod Brown (D-OH) Toss-up Leans Republican
Ted Cruz (R-TX) Likely Republican Leans Republican

Oct. 24, 2024

Senator Old Rating New Rating
Deb Fischer (R-NE) Likely Republican Leans Republican

Sept. 25, 2024

Senator Old Rating New Rating
Deb Fischer (R-NE) Safe Republican Likely Republican

Sept. 6, 2024

Senator Old Rating New Rating
Jon Tester (D-MT) Toss-up Leans Republican

Sept. 5, 2024

Senator Old Rating New Rating
Angus King (I-ME) Likely Independent Safe Independent

June 13, 2024

Senator Old Rating New Rating
Bob Casey (D-PA) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic

April 17, 2024

Senator Old Rating New Rating
AZ Open (Sinema, I) Toss-up Leans Democratic

Feb. 9, 2024

Senator Old Rating New Rating
MD Open (Cardin, D) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic

Nov. 9, 2023

Senator Old Rating New Rating
WV Open (Manchin, D) Leans Republican Safe Republican

Governor rating changes

Nov. 4, 2024

Governor Old Rating New Rating
NH Open (Sununu, R) Toss-up Leans Republican

Oct. 4, 2024

Governor Old Rating New Rating
IN Open (Holcomb, R) Safe Republican Likely Republican

Sept. 19, 2024

Governor Old Rating New Rating
NC Open (Cooper, D) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic

Aug. 28, 2024

Governor Old Rating New Rating
NC Open (Cooper, D) Toss-up Leans Democratic

June 4, 2024

Governor Old Rating New Rating
Phil Scott (R-VT) Likely Republican Safe Republican

July 19, 2023

Governor Old Rating New Rating
NH Open (Sununu, R) Likely Republican Toss-up

July 13, 2023

Governor Old Rating New Rating
WA Open (Inslee, D) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic

Jan. 19, 2023

Governor Old Rating New Rating
Tate Reeves (R-MS) Safe Republican Likely Republican

House rating changes

Nov. 4, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Toss-up Leans Republican
Juan Ciscomani (R, AZ-6) Toss-up Leans Republican
Dave Schweikert (R, AZ-1) Toss-up Leans Republican
John Duarte (R, CA-13) Toss-up Leans Democratic
Mike Garcia (R, CA-27) Toss-up Leans Democratic
Michelle Steel (R, CA-45) Toss-up Leans Republican
Yadira Caraveo (D, CO-8) Toss-up Leans Democratic
M. Miller-Meeks (R, IA-1) Leans Republican Leans Democratic
Eric Sorensen (D, IL-17) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic
MD-6 Open (Trone, D) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic
Jared Golden (D, ME-2) Toss-up Leans Democratic
MI-7 Open (Slotkin, D) Toss-up Leans Republican
MI-8 Open (Kildee, D) Toss-up Leans Democratic
Angie Craig (D, MN-2) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic
Nick LaLota (R, NY-1) Likely Republican Leans Republican
Pat Ryan (D, NY-18) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic
Marc Molinaro (R, NY-19) Toss-up Leans Democratic
Matt Cartwright (D, PA-8) Toss-up Leans Democratic
L. Chavez-DeRemer (R, OR-5) Toss-up Leans Democratic
M. Gluesenkamp Perez (D, WA-3) Toss-up Leans Republican

Oct. 24, 2024

Member/District Old Rating New Rating
Eli Crane (R, AZ-2) Safe Republican Likely Republican
David Valadao (R, CA-22) Toss-up Leans Republican
Don Davis (D, NC-1) Toss-up Leans Democratic
Emilia Sykes (D, OH-13) Toss-up Leans Democratic
Susan Wild (D, PA-7) Toss-up Leans Democratic

Sept. 30, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
Don Bacon (R, NE-2) Toss-up Leans Democratic

Sept. 19, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Leans Democratic Toss-up
Michelle Steel (R, CA-45) Leans Republican Toss-up
CA-47 Open (Porter, D) Toss-up Leans Democratic
Mike Lawler (R, NY-17) Toss-up Leans Republican
Derrick Van Orden (R, WI-3) Likely Republican Leans Republican

July 31, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
Yadira Caraveo (D, CO-8) Leans Democratic Toss-up
CO-3 Open (Boebert, R) Leans Republican Likely Republican
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R, IA-1) Likely Republican Leans Republican

June 26, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
CO-5 Open (Lamborn, R) Likely Republican Safe Republican

June 5, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
NJ-3 Open (Kim, D) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic

May 3, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic

April 24, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
Scott Perry (R, PA-10) Likely Republican Leans Republican

April 17, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
Juan Ciscomani (R, AZ-6) Leans Republican Toss-up

Feb. 28, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
Anthony D’Esposito (R, NY-4) Toss-up Leans Democratic
Tom Suozzi (D, NY-3) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic
Brandon Williams (R, NY-22) Toss-up Leans Democratic

Feb. 14, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
Tom Suozzi (D, NY-3) Toss-up Leans Democratic

Feb. 7, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
Ashley Hinson (R, IA-2) Likely Republican Safe Republican
Lauren Underwood (D, IL-14) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic
Jared Golden (D, ME-2) Leans Democratic Toss-up
Don Bacon (R, NE-2) Leans Republican Toss-up
Greg Landsman (D, OH-1) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic
Vicente Gonzalez (D, TX-34) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic
Kim Schrier (D, WA-8) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic

Jan. 22, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
Garret Graves (R, LA-6) Safe Republican Safe Democratic

Jan. 10, 2024

District Old Rating New Rating
CO-5 Open (Lamborn, R) Safe Republican Likely Republican

Nov. 16, 2023

Member/District Old Rating New Rating
MI-8 Open (Kildee, D) Leans Democratic Toss-up

Nov. 13, 2023

Member/District Old Rating New Rating
VA-7 Open (Spanberger, D) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic

Oct. 26, 2023

Member/District Old Rating New Rating
Kathy Manning (D, NC-6) Toss-up Safe Republican
Wiley Nickel (D, NC-13) Toss-up Safe Republican
Jeff Jackson (D, NC-14) Toss-up Safe Republican

Oct. 4, 2023

Member/District Old Rating New Rating
Barry Moore (R, AL-2) Safe Republican Likely Democratic

Sept. 26, 2023

Member/District Old Rating New Rating
MD-6 Open (Trone, D) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic
NJ-3 Open (Kim, D) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic

Sept. 7, 2023

District Old Rating New Rating
Marcy Kaptur (D, OH-9) Toss-up Leans Democratic
Greg Landsman (D, OH-1) Toss-up Leans Democratic

April 5, 2023

District Old Rating New Rating
Bryan Steil (R, WI-1) Safe Republican Likely Republican