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SABATO'S CRYSTAL BALL

Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato

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The Kinds of Seats that Flip in Midterms
Kyle KondikMay 11, 2022
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While increasingly salient issues like abortion could change the political environment, Republicans still appear...
Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2022
J. Miles ColemanMay 11, 2022
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections...
How Abortion Might Motivate or Persuade Voters in the Midterms
Kyle Kondik, Larry Schack, and Mick McWilliamsMay 5, 2022
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The end of Roe vs. Wade could potentially give Democrats a better chance to...
Notes on the State of Politics: May 5, 2022
Sarah Pharr, Aviaé Gibson, and Alex KellumMay 5, 2022
Dear Readers: We’re pleased to feature 3 items today from our Spring 2022 Crystal Ball interns: Sarah Pharr, Aviaé Gibson,...
A Trump Bump for Vance
Kyle Kondik and J. Miles ColemanMay 4, 2022
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- It’s hard to quantify exactly what Donald Trump’s endorsement of J.D. Vance was worth...
Abortion Battlefields in a Potentially Post-Roe Political World
Louis JacobsonMay 4, 2022
Dear Readers: In light of a recent Politico article that features a leaked majority draft opinion from Justice Samuel Alito that would overturn the landmark Roe...
How Minority Parties (Might) Compete in One-Party States
Louis JacobsonApril 28, 2022
Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event later today (Thursday, April 28) with the ambassadors...
Breaking Down the DeSantimander
J. Miles ColemanApril 27, 2022
Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event on Thursday, April 28 with the ambassadors to...
Notes on the State of the Senate
Kyle Kondik and J. Miles ColemanApril 21, 2022
The small stuff versus the big stuff There is a push and pull in the race for control of the...
House Rating Changes: 11 Moves, All in Favor of Republicans
Kyle KondikApril 19, 2022
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making 11 rating changes in the House this week, all in favor...
Trump-District House Democrats Could Become Extinct This November
Kyle KondikApril 14, 2022
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The number of “crossover” districts -- those won by different parties for president and...
Are Democrats Headed for a Shellacking in the Midterm Election?
Alan I. AbramowitzApril 12, 2022
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics. -- President Biden’s...
Sarah Palin’s Surprising and Possibly Historic Run for the House
Kyle KondikApril 7, 2022
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin surprised the political world when she announced...
The Challenges of Being Buffalo in Today’s New York State
Louis JacobsonApril 7, 2022
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Buffalo, and the Western New York region that surrounds it, is further from its...
Notes on the State of Politics: April 6, 2022
Kyle Kondik and J. Miles ColemanApril 6, 2022
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections...
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