Sabato’s Crystal Ball is a comprehensive, nonpartisan political analysis and handicapping newsletter run by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Founded in advance of the 2002 elections, the Crystal Ball is produced by Editor in Chief Larry J. Sabato, also the Center for Politics’ director, with Managing Editor Kyle Kondik and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman.
The Crystal Ball keeps tabs on presidential elections, along with every race for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, and state governor. Besides forecasting the winners, the Crystal Ball provides analysis of trends in American politics and elections, and it features outside contributors such as Senior Columnists Alan Abramowitz of Emory University; longtime congressional reporter and analyst Rhodes Cook; and PolitiFact‘s Louis Jacobson.
Our race ratings are based on a number of factors, including electoral history, polling, candidate quality, modeling, and reporting. The Crystal Ball has a solid track record of prediction accuracy over the years and has been recognized by the Pew Charitable Trusts, and the Daily Beast designated it as one of the top political sites on the web. That said, we’re also modest enough to know that no Crystal Ball can foresee all the twists and turns of a turbulent era in American politics. Thus, our motto remains “He who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass!”
A free public service meant to appeal to political junkies and interested voters alike, Crystal Ball content may be used by educators, press, and others with proper attribution. Contact us with any questions.
As part of its mission to foster public understanding of elections, and to document and detail what happens every two years, the Center for Politics has produced several books chronicling recent presidential and midterm elections (1996, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020).