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Sabato’s Crystal Ball

It’s Not the Economy, Stupid: The Ideological Foundations of White Working Class Republicanism

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While the state of the economy was likely an important factor in the 2024 presidential election and other recent contests, discontent over economic conditions doesn’t really explain the movement of white working class voters to the Republican Party in the longer-term. Rather, cultural issues were probably a larger driver of white working class voters, once the base of the Democratic Party decades ago, into the Republican column.

Alan I. Abramowitz

Notes on the State of Off-Year Elections: Wisconsin, Florida, and Pennsylvania

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Wisconsin will hold a state Supreme Court election next week, where liberals are defending their 4-3 majority. Florida will also have two special elections for Congress on Tuesday, where Republicans should hold two deep red seats, if by smaller-than-normal margins. Pennsylvania Democrats won two legislative special elections this week, both of which had some degree of significance.

J. Miles Coleman

House District Loyalty in the Trump Era

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During the three Trump era presidential elections, fewer than 30 of the current House districts would have supported either party at some point. Those districts are, in aggregate, likely to play a large role in determining the House's majority in the 2026 elections.

J. Miles Coleman

Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain

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As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages. However, his numbers in polling averages are weaker now than a few weeks ago, driven more by an increase in disapproval than a decline in approval. Compared to his 2024 performance with certain demographic groups based on the national exit poll, Trump is overperforming the most with some typically Democratic constituencies

Kyle Kondik

Minnesota Senate to Leans Democratic

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In 2026, Minnesota will see its first open-seat Senate contest since 2006, following Sen. Tina Smith's (D) retirement announcement. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) is already in the race, and we are moving our rating from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic as the primary fields further take shape.

J. Miles Coleman

Our Initial Senate Ratings: Republicans Start as Strong Favorites to Hold Majority

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In the Crystal Ball's first look at the 2026 Senate races, we find that Republicans are strong, but not prohibitive, favorites to keep the chamber. Early Toss-up states include Georgia and Michigan, which are Democratic-held, and North Carolina, which Republicans hold. Democrats will probably make a serious attempt at Maine, although it starts off as Leans Republican.

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Checking Back on Key 2024 Counties, Part Two: The Sun Belt

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Ahead of the 2024 election, the Crystal Ball isolated a number of swing-state counties that seemed likely to be informative. Looking back at our selections in the Sun Belt states, Harris held up relatively well in several suburban counties but Trump's gains, particuarly in Latino-majority areas, made him formidable.

J. Miles Coleman

Checking Back on Key 2024 Counties, Part One: The Industrial North

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Before the 2024 election, the Crystal Ball flagged a number of key counties, which ended up telling us something about the overall election. This article focuses on those counties in the Industrial North states. Also in the region, Sen. Gary Peters's (D) retirement opens up a Senate seat in Michigan for 2026.

J. Miles Coleman

How Donald Trump Changed Pennsylvania’s Electorate: Tracking Voter Registration Trends Over the Past Decade

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Pennsylvania changed in the Trump era from being a somewhat Democratic-leaning state to a top presidential battleground, voting for the winning candidate in all 3 of Donald Trump’s elections. One indicator of the GOP’s growth in the state is changing voter registration patterns, as Republicans have drastically reduced the Democrats’ voter registration edge in the state in the Trump era.

Nick Field