Leaning Into State Trends: The West Coast

Also some larger observations on how all the states have trended

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The West Coast states have all been Democratic-leaning in nearly every recent presidential election. -- One exception was Oregon, which leaned slightly right of the nation in 2000, although it is now a solidly blue state. -- Looking nationally, Biden was the best-performing recent...

How the Rookie Governors are Performing So Far

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Governors seem to be strikingly popular these days, especially compared to national political figures and institutions such as Congress and the Supreme Court. -- This tendency appears to be holding for the nine rookie governors who took office for the first time after last...

The Red Ripple Excerpts: Five Takeaways from 2022

On Wednesday, we announced the release of our new book on the recent midterm elections: The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024. What follows are a few excerpts from the book, illustrating five takeaways from the election. As a reminder, Crystal Ball readers can...

Leaning Into State Trends: The Midwest and Interior West

The two regions have four Biden-won states that will be key in 2024

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020. -- In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans....

Notes on the State of Politics: May 2, 2023

Biden and New Hampshire; Safe ratings endure for new open-seat races in Maryland and Washington

Biden may pass on New Hampshire test While it would not rank that high on the all-time list of ways in which the Donald Trump experience did not correspond with history, Trump’s electoral performance in 2020 was unusual in that he lost reelection despite a very strong showing in his...

How the Other Half Votes: Manchin and Tester’s Challenge

Democratic Senate coalitions in red presidential states Montana and West Virginia

Dear Readers: Join us at 10:30 eastern this morning for a conversation with the Honorable Mark Brzezinski, Ambassador of the United States to Poland. The ambassador will discuss the latest issues impacting Poland and the U.S. with particular emphasis on the war in Ukraine. This virtual event will be streaming...

Is Biden’s Approval Rating Too Weak for Him to Win?

Just like in 2022, “soft” disapprovers are a key bloc

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Presidential approval is typically a good predictor of the share of the vote an incumbent president will receive. -- Recent presidents often ran a little ahead of their approval as opposed to a little behind, although the sample size is very small. -- Assuming...

Leaning Into State Trends: The Northeast and Greater South

Dear Readers: Please join the Center for Politics and the Jefferson Council for the University of Virginia next Tuesday (April 25) at 7 p.m. for an evening with Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist George Will. He will be speaking at Minor Hall Room 125 on the Grounds of the University of Virginia....

How the Other Half Votes: The Southwest

Why Texas still leans Republican, and comparing Arizona versus Nevada

Dear Readers: New Center for Politics Professor of Practice Liz Cheney will discuss her time in Congress, her role on the Select Committee that investigated Jan. 6, 2021, and more in a conversation with Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato on Wednesday, April 19. The conversation will run from...

How the Other Half Votes: The East

The presidential trends from Pennsylvania to Florida

Dear Readers: Join us on Tuesday, April 11 for a conversation with Nguyen Quoc Dzung, ambassador of Vietnam to the United States. The ambassador will speak on the relationship between Vietnam and the U.S. and issues impacting Vietnam and Southeast Asia. The program begins at 6:30 p.m. eastern at Minor...

With Protasiewicz win, Democrats flip the Wisconsin Supreme Court

Democrats notch key victory a purple state contest

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In last night’s high-stakes state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, Democratic-aligned Janet Protasiewicz comfortably dispatched former Justice Daniel Kelly, giving liberals a 4-3 majority on the court. -- Compared to some previous Democratic-aligned judges, Protasiewicz had a more “nationalized” voting coalition, although she still carried...