Notes on the State of Politics: June 22, 2022

House rating changes in Virginia, California, and Alaska

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Barring an unexpected development, this is going to be the only issue of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back next week with a reaction to next...

Governors: Escaping Public’s Wrath Even as So Many Others Draw Ire

State chief executives continue to get high marks from voters even as party leaders, Congress do not

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Virtually every measurement of public opinion shows that Americans are in a foul mood about their political leaders and institutions. But one group seems to have escaped this wrath: governors. -- State-level job approval polls from Morning Consult show that 92% of governors are...

How Many Governorships Can Be Expected to Change Parties in November?

Trends from history

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Although off-year elections for governor generally yield worse results for the party of the president than for the opposition, whether the incumbent governor is running for reelection is a mediating factor. -- The worst outcomes for the party of the president often come when...

How the House Landscape Changed

A mild decline in competitive seats, and a spike in safe Republican ones

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The new House landscape is fairly similar to the old one. -- However, there is a notable increase in the number of super-safe Republican seats -- and a modest decline in the overall number of competitive districts. -- New Hampshire, the final state...

Notes on the State of the Primaries: June 8, 2022

Rating changes in Iowa, Oregon House races; highlights from a busy Tuesday night of primaries

Dear Readers: Join us tonight at 6 p.m eastern for a free, virtual panel featuring top analysts and experts previewing the beginning of the House’s Jan. 6 Select Committee’s public hearings. The virtual event will be streaming at https://livestream.com/tavco/jan6committeehearings. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will host the...

Rating Change: Ohio Gubernatorial Race to Safe Republican

And why the Senate race is still Likely Republican

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Ohio gubernatorial race moves from Likely Republican to Safe Republican. -- A close poll does not mean the Ohio Senate race is a Toss-up. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating Mike DeWine (R-OH) Likely Republican Safe Republican...

The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis

What a predictive model tells us about the last decade of results, as well as 2022

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings. -- Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization....

Rating Change: GA-GOV to Leans Republican Following Kemp’s Smashing Primary Win

Incumbent faces rematch with Abrams in a more favorable cycle; other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) shellacked Donald Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) in the Georgia Republican primary on Tuesday, and we are moving the general election race from Toss-up to Leans Republican. -- The sheer size of Kemp’s win paired with Secretary of State...

The Battle for State Legislatures

Looking for competition in sorted statehouses

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After taking a first look at attorney general and secretary of state races, he is now assessing the battles for state legislatures this year. The Republicans have built a robust edge...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 18, 2022

Pennsylvania governor moves to Leans Democratic following primary; other reactions to Tuesday night’s results

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The race for the Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination remains uncalled, and it will remain a Toss-up in our ratings...

The Kinds of Seats that Flip in Midterms

Looking back on past recent waves to assess Republicans’ potential in November

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While increasingly salient issues like abortion could change the political environment, Republicans still appear on track for a strong showing in the U.S. House. -- Recent midterms have hollowed out the presidential party’s holdings of districts where the president either did the same or...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2022

New York’s looming House specials; a nationalized West Virginia primary; Nebraska governor

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New York: No map, but 2 special elections The last few months have not been especially kind to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). Shortly after she...

How Abortion Might Motivate or Persuade Voters in the Midterms

Project Home Fire data reveal partisan attitudes on abortion

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The end of Roe vs. Wade could potentially give Democrats a better chance to motivate their own voters and/or persuade Republican-leaning swing voters. -- Public opinion on abortion is nuanced, although more are likelier to take the pro-abortion rights side on a couple of...