Dear Readers: Tomorrow at noon, the McIntire School of Commerce will be hosting a virtual event featuring Sonja Hoel Perkins, a UVA alumna. A preeminent venture capitalist and philanthropist, she’s put a special emphasis on improving the careers of women and girls. Perkins sits on the Center for Politics’ Board,...
Dear Readers: Less than a month into the Biden presidency, both parties are looking to the next election cycle. But before either side can be successful, they will each undoubtedly do some internal soul-searching. At 6:30 p.m. this evening, the Center for Politics will host a panel called Warring Factions,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With the race for NY-22 settled, 2020’s House elections may finally be fully in the rearview mirror, though IA-2’s results will be reviewed by Congress. -- Before this week, we rated two special elections in Louisiana as safe for either party; with a new...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: -- Given that Democrats only hold a single-digit majority in the House of Representatives, the 2022 midterms will be extremely competitive. -- The generic ballot is the best tool for forecasting the House popular vote, and is especially useful in cycles without presidential races atop...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 16 members of the House hold districts that voted for the other party’s presidential nominee in 2020. -- Many Biden-district Republicans are from racially diverse areas, and they often came out on the winning end of rematches. -- Democrats held several Trump seats in...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- For the entire period from 1972 to 2020 there is little partisan bias in the seat/vote relationship, but this overall pattern obscures substantial bias from decade to decade. -- In the 1970s and 1980s there was a substantial bias favoring the Democrats; in the...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans will be defending more Senate seats than Democrats in 2022, but both sides have some potential pickup opportunities -- though a large gain for either party seems unlikely. -- Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) would have been an overwhelming favorite to win a third...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Even as a new president is inaugurated today, the outgoing president looms large. -- As Senate Republicans ponder how to vote in the Trump impeachment trial, they may be incentivized to move the party past Trump as they seek to recapture power in Washington...
Dear Readers: Last night, UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviewed Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) about last week’s chaos on Capitol Hill, the moment he “knew there was a massive disaster that was underway,” possible sanctions for fellow lawmakers who participated in instigating the Capitol insurrection, the Democrats’...
Dear Readers: During this huge week in American politics and in advance of a big shift of power in Washington, what should we expect of the high-stakes political road ahead? Kick off the new year with a “ripped from the headlines” presentation by University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry...
Dear Readers: With a new president about to take office and a sharply divided Congress, what should we expect of the high-stakes political road ahead? Kick off the new year with a “ripped from the headlines” presentation by University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and an all-star guest...
Dear Readers: This is the last issue of the Crystal Ball this year. We wanted to finish off our 2020 publishing schedule by taking a deep look at the Georgia Senate runoffs, which will decide control of the Senate on Tuesday, Jan. 5. The Crystal Ball continues to rate both...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden outran Hillary Clinton in 73 of 75 large suburban counties, an indicator of the suburban strength that carried him to the White House. -- In Georgia, Colorado, and Minnesota, Biden’s performance in the major suburban areas served as bellwethers for his statewide...
Dear Readers: Our new Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar is now available on YouTube and on our YouTube channel, UVACFP. We discuss the latest in the pivotal Georgia Senate runoffs and hear from Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, who is covering those races as closely as anyone. Our...
Dear Readers: We will be releasing a new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball webinar series next Wednesday morning. It will be posted on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and we will also send out the direct YouTube link in next Wednesday's issue of the Crystal Ball. We'll be discussing the...
