Dear Readers: As we look ahead to next week’s New Hampshire primary, we are pleased to feature a piece from our friend Dante Scala of the University of New Hampshire, who identifies the key places to watch in next week’s Republican contest. We also spoke with Dante about New Hampshire...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The polls were basically correct in Iowa, as Donald Trump dominated the kickoff caucus. -- Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley finished second and third, respectively, in a scramble for second, but they were both so far behind Trump—about 30 points apiece—that it was hard...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Monday night’s Iowa Republican caucus kicks off the presidential nominating season. -- The caucus has a spotty history of voting for the eventual nominee, particularly on the Republican side, although Donald Trump is a big favorite both in Iowa and nationally. Ron DeSantis is...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, featuring short updates on elections and politics. First, Managing Editor Kyle Kondik assesses the latest round of House retirements and how this year’s number of incumbents running compares to recent history. Then, Contributing Editor Carah Ong...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Despite bad polling and clear weaknesses for President Biden, we are sticking with our initial Electoral College ratings from the summer, which show him doing better than what polls today would indicate, even as there are enough Toss-up electoral votes to make the election...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Lightning rod U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R, CO-3) announced over the holidays that she would seek reelection in a redder, open seat on the other side of the state. -- The district she leaves behind, CO-3, remains rated as Leans Republican. -- A federal...
Dear Readers: This is our last issue of 2023. We wish you all Happy Holidays and a Happy New Year. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- One plausible outcome next year is that Democrats hold the White House and flip the House of Representatives while Republicans flip...
Dear Readers: On the latest episode of our Politics is Everything podcast, former Virginia U.S. House Reps. L.F. Payne (D) and Barbara Comstock (R) discuss a new survey on the perspectives, beliefs, and experiences of former members of Congress, with a specific focus on concerns about violence in 2024. Payne...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The pending resignation of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R, CA-20) and Rep. Patrick McHenry’s (R, NC-10) retirement announcement are...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican primary race. -- Despite some recent movement toward Nikki Haley, Trump’s rivals are not doing even close to well enough with college-educated Republicans—a group that is not as pro-Trump as Republicans who do not hold a four-year...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recent 2024 presidential polling has shown President Biden performing poorly with young voters. -- The 18-29 voting bloc has been reliably Democratic leaning for at least the last several presidential elections. -- Biden’s weakness with young voters is not new, despite doing well among...
Dear Readers: Today we are featuring an excerpt from Patrick Ruffini’s new book, Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP. Ruffini, a Republican pollster and cofounder of the firm Echelon Insights, meticulously tracks the political changes in the wake of Donald Trump’s ascension to the...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As the calendar year draws nearer to a close, more House members have looked towards the exit. -- In Michigan, Rep. Dan Kildee (D, MI-8) would have been favored for a seventh term, but without him, his Biden +2 seat moves into the Toss-up...
Dear Readers: We wish all of you a Happy Thanksgiving; the Crystal Ball will not be publishing next week. Before we move full speed into assessing 2024, we wanted to take a quick look back at a few notable findings from last week’s elections -- specifically in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) decision not to run for reelection next year pushes our rating for the West Virginia Senate race from Leans Republican to Safe Republican. -- Next door, Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7) is forgoing reelection in her Biden +7 seat to...
