States of Play: Ohio

After Trump maxed out the Buckeye State’s rural areas and small town areas, can Biden max out the suburbs?

Dear Readers: Today at 2 p.m. eastern, we'll be devoting our new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series to previewing the debates, which start next week. We’ll go through some of the most famous debate moments and discuss what they tell us about the looming clashes...

Rating Changes: Maine Senate Moves to Leans Democratic

ME-2 electoral vote now a Toss-up; South Carolina Senate narrows

Dear Readers: On Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern, we'll be devoting our new episode of our Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series to previewing the debates, which start next week. If you've got questions about the debates -- both on the matchup this year, and also those from the...

The Dreaded 269-269 Scenario: An Update

Republicans Retain House Tiebreaker Edge

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow at 2 p.m. eastern for the latest edition of our new Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. We'll be going over the latest in the race for president and we'll be hearing from a special guest: Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst at RealClearPolitics. You...

The Post-Labor Day Sprint, Part One: The Senate

Race for the majority remains up for grabs with less than two months to go

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats hope they don’t get a repeat of the 2016 presidential race in the 2020 Senate races. The list of Democratic targets is long, but Republicans still retain an edge in most of the second and third-tier Senate races. -- We provide our latest...

Presidential Expectations and the Race for the House

That the public is less confident in Biden’s chances than the polls could have a down-ballot impact; 14 House rating changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Perceptions of the presidential race could have some impact down the ballot. -- Ticket-splitting is on the decline, but plenty of voters will vote for different parties for president and House, perhaps to the benefit of candidates from both parties. -- We are making...

A Golden Age of Gubernatorial Propriety

After scandal-plagued 2000s, there haven’t been many blockbuster gubernatorial scandals recently

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In the past decade, four governors faced either a criminal case or sexual misconduct allegations while in office. That may sound like a lot, but it’s actually quite low by recent historical standards. -- Gubernatorial bad behavior peaked between 2003 and 2009, an era...

Crystal Ball Video Series Continues Thursday

Join Larry J. Sabato and the Crystal Ball team tomorrow (Thursday, Sept. 3) at 2 p.m. eastern for the next installment of our new Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series. We will be discussing the fallout from the two party conventions, the race for the House, and the state...

States of Play: North Carolina

Dear Readers: In the next installment of our States of Play series -- in which we are taking an in-depth look at the key states that will decide the presidential election -- we look at North Carolina, a state that both parties have made serious attempts at winning since 2008....

What Happens After November 3?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The most critical moments in the 2020 election will come after Election Day, Nov. 3 -- Millions of mail ballots induced by the coronavirus will delay final results in some states for several weeks after the election. -- Congress is most likely to certify...

States of Play: Wisconsin

Dear Readers: In the next installment of our States of Play series -- in which we'll be taking an in-depth look at the key states that will decide the presidential election -- we look at Wisconsin. In a universe without the COVID-19 pandemic, this bright purple state would now be...

The National Polls: 2016 vs. 2020 Before the Conventions

Fewer undecideds, more party unity, and an independent shift

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Several national pollsters conducted surveys on the eve of the convention season in both 2016 and 2020. We compared them to see how the race was different from four years ago. -- Compared to four years ago, the parties are more unified; Biden is...

A Defense of Election Forecasting Models

All models are wrong, some are useful, many will be misinterpreted -- and that's OK

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While there is a legitimate debate about the public utility of forecast models, these are tools people in politics, finance, and media use to understand the political environment and make informed decisions. These private goods have corresponding public ones. -- Campaign forecasting models, at...

Putting the Harris Selection in Historical Context

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s vice presidential search was the longest in modern history, and it involved an unusually large and diverse list of contenders. -- Yet Biden’s eventual choice was also conventional in that he selected a sitting senator -- common for modern Democrats -- and...