KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In North Carolina’s hotly contested Senate race last year, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) narrowly won reelection against a scandal-plagued opponent, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D-NC). -- Had Cunningham’s candidacy not been weighed down by a personal affair, he may have still lost. Indeed,...
A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America -- the University of Virginia Center for Politics' new look at the 2020 presidential election and its consequences -- is now available through UVA Bookstores, Indiebound, and other online booksellers. If you order the book through the publisher, Rowman...
Dear Readers: This month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. Next week,...
Dear Readers: Next month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. This...
Dear Readers: Next month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy: The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. Next Thursday,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 38 states will see gubernatorial races over the next two years; Democrats currently hold 18 of the seats that will be contested while the GOP holds 20. -- Maryland, where popular Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) is term-limited, will be hard for Republicans to hold....
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Virginia Democrats are trying to win three consecutive gubernatorial races, a feat the party has not accomplished since the 1980s. -- Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) is the favorite for his state’s Democratic nomination, though he faces a diverse field. -- In a move...
Dear Readers: Tomorrow at noon, the McIntire School of Commerce will be hosting a virtual event featuring Sonja Hoel Perkins, a UVA alumna. A preeminent venture capitalist and philanthropist, she’s put a special emphasis on improving the careers of women and girls. Perkins sits on the Center for Politics’ Board,...
Dear Readers: Less than a month into the Biden presidency, both parties are looking to the next election cycle. But before either side can be successful, they will each undoubtedly do some internal soul-searching. At 6:30 p.m. this evening, the Center for Politics will host a panel called Warring Factions,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With the race for NY-22 settled, 2020’s House elections may finally be fully in the rearview mirror, though IA-2’s results will be reviewed by Congress. -- Before this week, we rated two special elections in Louisiana as safe for either party; with a new...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: -- Given that Democrats only hold a single-digit majority in the House of Representatives, the 2022 midterms will be extremely competitive. -- The generic ballot is the best tool for forecasting the House popular vote, and is especially useful in cycles without presidential races atop...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 16 members of the House hold districts that voted for the other party’s presidential nominee in 2020. -- Many Biden-district Republicans are from racially diverse areas, and they often came out on the winning end of rematches. -- Democrats held several Trump seats in...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- For the entire period from 1972 to 2020 there is little partisan bias in the seat/vote relationship, but this overall pattern obscures substantial bias from decade to decade. -- In the 1970s and 1980s there was a substantial bias favoring the Democrats; in the...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans will be defending more Senate seats than Democrats in 2022, but both sides have some potential pickup opportunities -- though a large gain for either party seems unlikely. -- Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) would have been an overwhelming favorite to win a third...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Even as a new president is inaugurated today, the outgoing president looms large. -- As Senate Republicans ponder how to vote in the Trump impeachment trial, they may be incentivized to move the party past Trump as they seek to recapture power in Washington...
