Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Thanks to Dave's Redistricting App, a tool which we use often at the Crystal Ball, we are able to easily compare congressional district data across the four most recent presidential elections. For this issue, we examine some of the district-level changes between the 2008 and 2020 elections.

President Biden's has easily won most contests in the 2024 Democratic primary so far. But in many states, his relative strengths and weaknesses line up with some trends that we have seen in past general elections--and these patterns could continue in November.

Though Donald Trump handily won most states that have voted in the 2024 Republican primary season so far, his stregth was not uniform. Using his overall performance against his most prominent rival, Ambassador Nikki Haley, as a baseline in each state, Trump's numbers were strongest in rural and exurban areas and weakest in places that have trended Democratic in general elections--although there were some exceptions.

The six presidential elections held during the 25-year history of the Center for Politics were often close, although most states voted predictably. As part of a time capsule we are putting together to be opened at the center’s 50th anniversary in 2049, we are asking our future students to consider what has changed and what has stayed the same. Had we done the same exercise when the center was founded 25 years ago, we would have seen an Electoral College alignment from 1976-1996 that looked a lot different than what we’ve become familiar with this century.

Yesterday in Arizona, the state Supreme Court gave the green light to a strict, 1860s-era law that bans abortion in nearly all cases. Democrats may be poised to ride the backlash in this swing state, as some local Republicans are trying to distance themselves from the ruling. Meanwhile, the Nebraska legislature's debate over its electoral vote allocation could further elevate Arizona's importance in the Electoral College.

Some polls have also shown Biden doing unusually well among senior citizens. The oldest voters have generally voted to the right of the national vote in recent cycles, and that is probably what we should expect in 2024 as well, despite these polls.

Part of former President Trump's relatively strong polling against President Biden in both national and state polls is surprisingly robust support from Black voters. However, the Black vote has been overwhelmingly Democratic in presidential elections for more than a half century, and there has been little sign of major improvement for Republicans in recent elections.

Although many factors affect the pool of available vice presidential candidates, the two primary filters relate to party identification and past governmental experience. In particular, major party presidential nominees invariably choose a running mate who shares their party identification and who presently holds or previously held a small group of high governmental offices signifying political experience. These are discussed below in turn.