Five Warning Signs for Biden as He Marks First Anniversary in Office

Reviewing Biden's (and Democrats') numbers after a turbulent first year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As Joe Biden marks a year in office, he has found himself in a perilous position, and there are no obvious signs of improvement. -- Among Biden’s challenges is an apparently weakened position among nonwhite voters as well as younger voters, two immensely important pillars...

House Republicans’ Drive to 35

What it would take for the GOP to build its biggest majority since the Great Depression

Dear Readers: If you missed last week’s special UVA Center for Politics program, “The Shock of January 6,” it is now available on our YouTube channel, UVACFP. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With some key national factors seemingly in their favor, Republicans could win a healthy...

The Battles for Attorney General

Surveying this year’s 30 contests across the country, including many in key swing states

Dear Readers: Last month, we announced that Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson would be analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After looking at secretary of state races, Lou is now turning his attention to attorneys general, positions that often have a fair amount of power...

How Trump and Biden Voters View the Events of Jan. 6

Trump voters divided on whether Capitol occupiers should be applauded; Biden voters strongly back criminally prosecuting them

Dear Readers: Please join us this evening for a special University of Virginia Center for Politics virtual event: “The Shock of January 6,” commemorating the first anniversary of the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will moderate the event...

The Dissipating Political Impact of Jan. 6

Trump’s standing -- and that of his party -- does not appear diminished

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A recurring theme during Donald Trump’s presidency was the emergence of seemingly very negative and very damaging stories that ultimately did not appear to do him long-term harm. -- It may be that Jan. 6, when Trump’s unsubstantiated allegations of fraud in the 2020...

The Holiday Redistricting Flurry

Nearly two-thirds of districts now complete, barring judicial intervention; Republicans remain well-positioned to win House

Dear Readers: Please join us Thursday evening for a special University of Virginia Center for Politics event: “The Shock of January 6,” commemorating the first anniversary of the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will moderate the event live...

Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 16, 2021

Redistricting scorecard so far; the new Maryland map; and a look back on the New Jersey and Virginia results

Dear Readers: After the new year, please join us for a special University of Virginia Center for Politics event: “The Shock of Jan. 6,” commemorating the first anniversary of the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will moderate the...

A Tale of Two Midwestern Gerrymanders: Illinois and Ohio

Plus redistricting updates elsewhere, and a gubernatorial rating change

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Gerrymanders by Democrats in Illinois and Republicans in Ohio seek to build upon their dominance of their respective states. -- The Ohio Supreme Court could intervene against the GOP gerrymander there, which perhaps helps explain why Republicans were not as aggressive as they could...

Six Decades of Regional Change in House Elections

The GOP edge in the South, already large, could grow in 2022

Dear Readers: Last week, the UVA Center for Politics premiered a new student-produced documentary, Common Grounds?, which explores the political climate at UVA through the eyes of students from across the political spectrum. The documentary is posted on YouTube, and we hope you will take a look at what we...

Notes on the State of Politics: Nov. 18, 2021

Redistricting action out West; looking back on Sen. Patrick Leahy’s career

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Redistricting: Four western states pass maps Since the Crystal Ball’s redistricting update last week, a few more states have enacted or advanced maps -- a...

Less Than A Year Out: A Redistricting Update

Going over new maps in NC, TX, and other states

Dear Readers: Join us tonight at 7 p.m. for the premiere of Common Grounds?, a new documentary produced by University of Virginia Center for Politics interns that brings together students from across UVA to discuss their political beliefs. The premiere will be followed by a panel discussion with the makers of...