KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Amid a promising national environment for Republicans, we are changing ratings in 4 gubernatorial contests -- 3 of which are in the GOP’s favor. -- The power of gubernatorial incumbency will be tested in 2022, both by a plethora of Republican primary challengers to...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The non-presidential party often performs better in off-year elections than it did in the previous cycle’s presidential race. The recent Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races are no exception, both this year and historically. -- This likely has more to do with an enthusiasm...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Gerrymanders by Democrats in Illinois and Republicans in Ohio seek to build upon their dominance of their respective states. -- The Ohio Supreme Court could intervene against the GOP gerrymander there, which perhaps helps explain why Republicans were not as aggressive as they could...
Dear Readers: We’re delighted to announce that Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson will be taking on an expanded role at the Crystal Ball this cycle. He’ll be regularly analyzing several categories of state-level races for the Crystal Ball: the battles for control of state legislatures and state attorneys general offices, as...
Dear Readers: Last week, the UVA Center for Politics premiered a new student-produced documentary, Common Grounds?, which explores the political climate at UVA through the eyes of students from across the political spectrum. The documentary is posted on YouTube, and we hope you will take a look at what we...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Redistricting: Four western states pass maps Since the Crystal Ball’s redistricting update last week, a few more states have enacted or advanced maps -- a...
Dear Readers: Join us tonight at 7 p.m. for the premiere of Common Grounds?, a new documentary produced by University of Virginia Center for Politics interns that brings together students from across UVA to discuss their political beliefs. The premiere will be followed by a panel discussion with the makers of...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans are still looking for a challenger to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) after Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) surprisingly passed on running against her next year. -- Sununu’s decision to run for reelection means Republicans are heavy favorites to hold onto the New Hampshire governorship....
Dear Readers: Join us tonight from 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. for our annual American Democracy Conference. The virtual event will begin with a presentation by Project Home Fire’s Larry Schack and Mick McWilliams on our ongoing polling and data analytics project -- their latest report is below. They will...
Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow, Thursday, Nov. 4, from 6:30 p.m.* to 8 p.m. for our annual American Democracy Conference. The virtual event will begin with a presentation by Project Home Fire’s Larry Schack and Mick McWilliams on our ongoing polling and data analytics project. They will be followed by...
Dear Readers: Join us Thursday, Nov. 4 from 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. for our annual American Democracy Conference. The virtual event will begin with a presentation by Project Home Fire’s Larry Schack and Mick McWilliams on our ongoing polling and data analytics project. They will be followed by discussions...
Brief Shots are quick, newsworthy notes from the UVA Center for Politics/Project Home Fire polling and data analytics project. See here for more information on the ongoing project. Last week, Senate Republicans blocked action on the Freedom to Vote Act. By way of background, this legislation would enact automatic voter...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Voters in several states will be deciding significant statewide ballot issues next week. -- The most notable issues deal with topics such as gaming, energy, taxes, and more. But the one with the most national import is in New York, where voters could give...
Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik’s new book, The Long Red Thread: How Democratic Dominance Gave Way to Republican Advantage in US House Elections, was published by Ohio University Press this week. It is available through IndieBound, Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other booksellers. The Long Red Thread...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The vote count in California is finally done, and there were some noticeable trends in the results. -- While the recall election largely lined up with the 2018 gubernatorial result, some notable changes are evident when comparing last month’s vote to other recent statewide races....
