Why Haven’t We Had A Woman President?

Dear Readers: We will be reacting to Wednesday night’s second Republican presidential primary debate on the “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Like so many other female politicians, Nikki Haley faces...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 26, 2023

The Menendez mess in New Jersey; rating changes in a couple of open, blue House seats

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Jersey Senate: Gold bars, cash in envelopes -- and a primary challenge In 1999, then-former Gov. Edwin Edwards (D-LA), who had spent a not-insignificant...

The Race for Virginia’s Legislature, Part Two

The pivotal state Senate and House of Delegates races that will decide the majority

Dear Readers: This is Part Two of our series previewing the races for the Virginia state legislature. In Part One, we looked at the big-picture stakes and trends. Today, we go through the districts that we think will decide the chamber, including 10 in the House and 6 in the...

The Battle for the Virginia State Legislature, Part One

Democratic presidential lean muted in lower-turnout legislative races, but political environment appears to be different than 2021

Dear Readers: This is the first of a two-part Crystal Ball series on this November’s state legislative elections in Virginia. Today’s piece looks at the overall electoral picture, and Part Two will identify and analyze the key districts that will decide the majorities. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS...

The Republicans’ ‘Excess Seat’ Edge in State Legislatures

Republicans punch above their weight compared to presidential results in more places than Democrats

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we talk with the author of today’s Crystal Ball piece -- Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson -- about his article today on “excess seats” in state legislatures as well as his journalism career with PolitiFact, House Republicans’ recently-announced impeachment...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 13, 2023

The candidates coming back for more in key Senate races; rating Ohio’s House seats after last year’s map endures

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Repeat candidates possible in key Senate races A few months ago, we noted that one theme in this cycle’s House races has been the presence...

How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part Two

Trend from 1996-2020 shows a much larger partisan gap between bigger and smaller counties, with 2000 and 2016 as key contributors

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020. -- The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap. -- While there is nearly a 40-point difference...

Notes on the State of Politics: Aug. 31, 2023

Why Ohio is not a bellwether for 2024; the dangers posed by Generative AI in the looming campaign

Dear Readers: Before we begin today, we wanted to share an offer from our friend Taegan Goddard, who runs Political Wire. Crystal Ball readers can get 20% off a site membership using this link. We highly recommend the site as a place to catch up on the latest political news....

The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part Two

Comparing ballot issues to partisan races in VT, CA, MT, KY, and state halves

Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball team will be reacting to last night’s first Republican presidential debate on a new episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Vermont and California...

The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part One

Comparing ballot issues to partisan races in KS, OH, and MI

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decisions last year, seven states have held abortion-related ballot issues, and abortion rights advocates have won all seven contests. -- In Kansas and Michigan, the pro-abortion rights side broadly outperformed the winning Democratic nominees for governor. -- In Ohio,...

Where Both Parties Overperform in the House, 2023 Edition

GOP edge in “excess seats” compared to 2020 presidential results expands following post-2020 redistricting, 2022 election

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Two years ago, we began looking at the states that produced “excess” House seats for one party or the other -- states for which the partisan ratio in House seats exceeds what would be predicted by the state’s presidential vote in 2020. -- Back...

Ohio’s Issue 1 Smackdown

The left scores another win in an abortion rights proxy fight; apparent turnout and persuasion edge drives Democratic success

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The pro-abortion rights/Democratic side won yet another fight related to abortion rights on Tuesday night, this time in red-trending Ohio. -- Turnout was robust and likely advantaged the Democratic side. Voter participation was relatively poor across Appalachia, a once-competitive area that has become extremely Republican...

How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part One

Just 151 out of 3,100+ counties cast half the national vote; gap between top and bottom half expanding

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we discuss the third indictment of former President Trump as well as today’s Crystal Ball article. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Just about 150...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2023

Trump’s beer and wine combo helps him maintain a big primary lead; Alabama’s redistricting machinations

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The Trump coalition: A case of beer plus a bottle of wine Former President Trump does not drink, but his enduring political coalition within the...