Sabato’s Crystal Ball

North Carolina and Georgia each have suburban counties where Kamala Harris could gain next month, although Donald Trump may well do so in some of their rural counties. Arizona and Nevada each have large counties that dominate their politics, but other counties in those states are worth keeping an eye on.

Most expect the presidential race to be “close,” but what does that actually mean? The 6 most recent presidential elections provide some parameters—and set a high bar.

Former President Jimmy Carter’s 100th birthday coinciding with the vice presidential debate today is fitting, given the important role Carter played in elevating the stature of the vice presidency.

While the 7 states that the Crystal Ball currently rates as Toss-ups will be important in the Electoral College, each state has several key counties. We are examining a selection of crucial counties in the "Blue Wall" states.

Polling in states that are somewhat competitive for president but outside the group of 7 that is likely to decide this election generally reflect the 2020 results, although Donald Trump is usually performing slightly better than the actual 2020 results in those states, much like the polling in the key battlegrounds that we covered last week.

Final polling did generally overstate Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 elections in these states, with Wisconsin standing out. Keep that in mind as polling shows Kamala Harris holding up a little bit better in the Badger State than elsewhere.

This year's version of the Time for Change model shows Kamala Harris as a narrow favorite in both the popular vote and Electoral College, but her predicted margins are so small that the safest prediction we can make about the 2024 presidential election is that it is likely to be very close.

North Carolina moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up in our Electoral College ratings, further emphasizing a focus on 7 key swing states to the exclusion of almost everywhere else.

Last week, the Crystal Ball moved some Electoral College ratings toward the Democrats, solidifying the presidential race as a true Toss-up. With the Democratic National Convention coming up next week, here are a trio of key questions we’re monitoring as we evaluate whether the race is moving toward one candidate or the other:

Although Vice President Harris vetted candidates from competitive states, like other recent presidential candidates she chose a running mate who was not from true swing state, demonstrating again that vice presidential candidates are chosen for reasons other than their ability to carry a competitive state.