Did Scandal Cost North Carolina Democrats a Senate Seat?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In North Carolina’s hotly contested Senate race last year, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) narrowly won reelection against a scandal-plagued opponent, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D-NC). -- Had Cunningham’s candidacy not been weighed down by a personal affair, he may have still lost. Indeed,...

NOW AVAILABLE: A Return to Normalcy? Our Book on the 2020 Election

Top analysts consider the societal impact of the 2020 election in virtual forum this evening

A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America -- the University of Virginia Center for Politics' new look at the 2020 presidential election and its consequences -- is now available through UVA Bookstores, Indiebound, and other online booksellers. If you order the book through the publisher, Rowman...

Demographics and Expectations: Analyzing Biden and Trump’s Performances

Dear Readers: This month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. Next week,...

The House: Unclear Lines, Clear Expectations

Redistricting delays cloud the seat-by-seat picture, but midterm history suggests a Republican edge

  Dear Readers: Next month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. This...

How Mid-Decade Redistrictings Saved the Democratic House Majority

Dear Readers: Next month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy: The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. Next Thursday,...

2022 Gubernatorial Races: A Baseline

Aside from Maryland, no statehouses are initially favored to flip -- but surprises are surely coming

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 38 states will see gubernatorial races over the next two years; Democrats currently hold 18 of the seats that will be contested while the GOP holds 20. -- Maryland, where popular Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) is term-limited, will be hard for Republicans to hold....

Virginia and New Jersey Governors 2021: A First Look

In blue states, Democrats could match milestones and break curses

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Virginia Democrats are trying to win three consecutive gubernatorial races, a feat the party has not accomplished since the 1980s. -- Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) is the favorite for his state’s Democratic nomination, though he faces a diverse field. -- In a move...

Moving Past Impeachment: Trump Acquitted (Again)

Dear Readers: Less than a month into the Biden presidency, both parties are looking to the next election cycle. But before either side can be successful, they will each undoubtedly do some internal soul-searching. At 6:30 p.m. this evening, the Center for Politics will host a panel called Warring Factions,...

The House: As 2020’s Final Contests Settle, Vacancies Arise

Look for House seat openings in Ohio, New Mexico to come up soon

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With the race for NY-22 settled, 2020’s House elections may finally be fully in the rearview mirror, though IA-2’s results will be reviewed by Congress. -- Before this week, we rated two special elections in Louisiana as safe for either party; with a new...

The Key to Forecasting Midterms: The Generic Ballot

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: -- Given that Democrats only hold a single-digit majority in the House of Representatives, the 2022 midterms will be extremely competitive. -- The generic ballot is the best tool for forecasting the House popular vote, and is especially useful in cycles without presidential races atop...

2020’s Crossover Districts

Only a handful of House Democrats and Republicans represent turf won by the other party’s presidential nominee

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 16 members of the House hold districts that voted for the other party’s presidential nominee in 2020. -- Many Biden-district Republicans are from racially diverse areas, and they often came out on the winning end of rematches. -- Democrats held several Trump seats in...

Seats/Votes Relationship in the U.S. House 1972-2020

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- For the entire period from 1972 to 2020 there is little partisan bias in the seat/vote relationship, but this overall pattern obscures substantial bias from decade to decade. -- In the 1970s and 1980s there was a substantial bias favoring the Democrats; in the...

2022 Senate Races: Initial Ratings

On a potentially limited playing field, both parties look to expand past their current 50 seats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans will be defending more Senate seats than Democrats in 2022, but both sides have some potential pickup opportunities -- though a large gain for either party seems unlikely. -- Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) would have been an overwhelming favorite to win a third...