KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We have no idea how much uncertainty exists in pre-election polls. That leads to very complex poll-based forecast models. -- The general public lacks the expertise necessary to appropriately interpret win probabilities from those complex models. -- Some research shows that overly certain forecasts...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- National Republicans breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday night, as Rep. Roger Marshall (R, KS-1) beat 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach (R) in the Kansas Senate primary. Practically speaking, the Kansas Senate race went from being a potentially major Democratic offensive target to...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Two factors that historically have been helpful in forecasting presidential elections -- the power of incumbency and the state of the economy -- may be less useful in this year’s election, both because of long-term changes in American politics and the current public health...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Trump recently indicated that he wants the 2020 census reapportionment of House seats to exclude undocumented immigrants from the calculation. -- If undocumented immigrants are excluded, the 2020 reapportionment calculation will change, including changing the number of House seats allocated to the two...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As five sitting members of the House have already lost primaries -- and some states have yet to vote -- 2020 could see the most primary losers in a non-redistricting cycle since 1980. -- The circumstances of some of this year’s primary losers are...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recently-released fundraising reports indicate a mismatch between the best-funded GOP candidates and the districts in which they are competing. -- At this point, Democrats are more likely to net House seats than Republicans, although we’re still not expecting much net change overall. -- There...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- College students are a key voting bloc whose participation in this year’s election may be blunted by the public health crisis. -- Major efforts are needed to ensure that students know how to vote, make sure their vote is counted. Time is now to...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Constitution divides the Senate into three “classes” that face the voters on six-year cycles. Under today’s political dynamics, the class that faced the voters in 2018 was favorable to the Republicans, while the class that faces the voters in 2020 is favorable to...
Editor's Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We'll be back Thursday with our regularly-scheduled issue. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Trump’s position has been perilously weak for a month and a half. -- With Joe Biden’s national lead around eight...
Dear Readers: In the next installment of our States of Play series -- in which we'll be taking an in-depth look at the key states that will decide the presidential election -- we look at Georgia, which Democrats are trying to win for the first time since 1992. Crystal Ball...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Kanye West tweeted over the weekend that he is running for president. -- He has already missed some state deadlines to file for president as an independent, and other deadlines loom. Presidential filing deadlines loom Rapper Kanye West tweeted the following over the weekend:...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s currently strong lead in the presidential race is being felt in the suburbs, which if it lasts could imperil Republicans in some of their formerly dark red turf. -- Texas merits special attention, where as many as 10 Republican-held House seats could...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 2020 has been a banner year for ranked-choice voting. -- Several Democratic primary and caucus contests used the system, which asks voters to rank their choice and forces winners to achieve majority support, albeit through votes from those who did not pick them first...
Dear Readers: As we’ve stressed throughout this election season, the president isn’t picked by national polling or the popular vote, but rather by the individual states -- successful presidential nominees must cobble together a coalition of at least 270 electoral votes. With that in mind, we’re launching a series called...
The University of Virginia Center for Politics in partnership with UVA’s Miller Center, Weldon Cooper Center/Sorensen Institute, and Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy have selected 56 students for the newly-created 22nd Century Scholars scholarship program set to launch next week. The Center for Politics has also announced...
