Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The McCarthy fallout On one side of the Capitol yesterday, now-Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) became the Senate’s newest member. Appointed to replace the late Sen....
Dear Readers: We will be reacting to Wednesday night’s second Republican presidential primary debate on the “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Like so many other female politicians, Nikki Haley faces...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors New Jersey Senate: Gold bars, cash in envelopes -- and a primary challenge In 1999, then-former Gov. Edwin Edwards (D-LA), who had spent a not-insignificant...
Dear Readers: This is Part Two of our series previewing the races for the Virginia state legislature. In Part One, we looked at the big-picture stakes and trends. Today, we go through the districts that we think will decide the chamber, including 10 in the House and 6 in the...
Dear Readers: This is the first of a two-part Crystal Ball series on this November’s state legislative elections in Virginia. Today’s piece looks at the overall electoral picture, and Part Two will identify and analyze the key districts that will decide the majorities. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS...
Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we talk with the author of today’s Crystal Ball piece -- Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson -- about his article today on “excess seats” in state legislatures as well as his journalism career with PolitiFact, House Republicans’ recently-announced impeachment...
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Repeat candidates possible in key Senate races A few months ago, we noted that one theme in this cycle’s House races has been the presence...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020. -- The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap. -- While there is nearly a 40-point difference...
Dear Readers: Before we begin today, we wanted to share an offer from our friend Taegan Goddard, who runs Political Wire. Crystal Ball readers can get 20% off a site membership using this link. We highly recommend the site as a place to catch up on the latest political news....
Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball team will be reacting to last night’s first Republican presidential debate on a new episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Vermont and California...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Negative partisanship -- the tendency for partisans to be animated by dislike for the other side -- has become a powerful force in American politics. -- This dynamic makes it harder for partisans to cross over to the other side and keeps general elections...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decisions last year, seven states have held abortion-related ballot issues, and abortion rights advocates have won all seven contests. -- In Kansas and Michigan, the pro-abortion rights side broadly outperformed the winning Democratic nominees for governor. -- In Ohio,...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Two years ago, we began looking at the states that produced “excess” House seats for one party or the other -- states for which the partisan ratio in House seats exceeds what would be predicted by the state’s presidential vote in 2020. -- Back...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The pro-abortion rights/Democratic side won yet another fight related to abortion rights on Tuesday night, this time in red-trending Ohio. -- Turnout was robust and likely advantaged the Democratic side. Voter participation was relatively poor across Appalachia, a once-competitive area that has become extremely Republican...
Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we discuss the third indictment of former President Trump as well as today’s Crystal Ball article. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Just about 150...
