The New York City Mayoral Primary

Breaking down the political geography of the nation’s largest city as voters digest a crowded and sometimes crazy campaign

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- New York City’s mayors have struggled in their recent efforts to win higher office, but they often become national figures anyway on account of their high-profile position. -- Ranked-choice voting as well as the many twists and turns of the race makes it difficult...

Like His Predecessors, Trump Suffered Down-Ballot Losses — But the Declines Were Comparatively Modest

Biden now confronts the presidential party down-ballot jinx, but his predecessor's shadow might aid his cause

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Like every post-World War II president, Donald Trump witnessed a fall-off in his party’s numbers of U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative seats during his presidency. That said, compared to recent presidents, the erosion on Trump’s watch was more modest than it...

Virginia: McAuliffe’s Chance to Defy History Once Again

Dear Readers: The University of Virginia Center for Politics has released a trailer for its latest documentary, Common Grounds. Produced entirely by student interns at the Center for Politics, the documentary explores the political climate at UVA through the eyes of several students of differing political beliefs. A primary goal...

Differential Privacy and the Upcoming Process of Redistricting

New method of protecting privacy in census may cause problems for drawing districts

Dear Readers: Next Thursday, June 10, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. eastern time. He’ll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. You can tune in...

The NM-1 Special: Democrats Hold Serve

House specials may not be as useful an indicator as they were in the 2018 cycle

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats turned in an impressive victory in Tuesday night’s special election in NM-1. This comes a month after Republicans scored an impressive performance of their own in the first round of the TX-6 special. -- Democratic performance represented an improvement over both Barack Obama...

The Senate: Sununu’s Vital Choice

The New Hampshire governor’s decision looms large over the 2022 map

Dear Readers: Virginia lost one of its most prominent and successful political figures on Tuesday, as former Sen. John Warner (R-VA) died at the age of 94. Warner served for three decades in the Senate (1979-2009), becoming known for his expertise on military matters and growing into a role as...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 26, 2021

A silver lining for House Democrats; Democrats in good shape in NM-1 special; Republicans still clearly favored in top Florida races despite emergence of credible challengers

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors The House: A silver lining for Democrats Last week’s Crystal Ball, which featured hypothetical ratings of the House that did not take...

The House: Democrats Would Have a Tough Slog Even Without Redistricting

Our hypothetical ratings of House 2022 if no district lines changed

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The reapportionment of House seats and pending redistricting has prevented us from releasing U.S. House ratings so far this cycle. -- While Republicans stand to gain from this process, they would be favored to win the House even if the district lines were not...

The Different Ways of Expanding the House

The number of House representatives has remained largely static for almost a century

Dear Readers: The recent House reapportionment shuffled a handful of seats among the states, but the number of members of the House -- 435 -- did not change. The House has been stuck at just 435 members since the 1910 census, save for a temporary increase to 437 to account...

The Splitting of the Ticket Split

What happened to the House incumbency edge?

Dear Readers: We are excited to feature a first-time Crystal Ball contributor today, UVA student Ethan Chen. He examines an interesting phenomenon in the 2020 House elections: a much more significant incumbency advantage for Republicans compared to Democrats. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The 2020 House...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2021

Youngkin captures Virginia GOP nomination; Minnesota under the influence of weed (parties); new report dissects the 2020 electorate

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors VA-GOV: Youngkin wins GOP nomination, race Leans Democratic for the fall Glenn Youngkin, former co-chief executive of the Carlyle Group, won the...

Notes on the State of Politics: May 3, 2021

Republicans finish ahead in TX-6; Bustos announces retirement; polarization thriving in the American electorate

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors TX-6: Democrats locked out of runoff In the Dallas area this weekend, a somewhat unexpected -- but not entirely surprising -- result...