Skip links

Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Notes on the State of Politics: June 5, 2024

Tags
In last night's primaries, Rep. Andy Kim (D, NJ-3) easily won the Democratic primary for Senate in his state; we are also making Democrats stronger favorites to hold his open House seat. Other states that saw interesting primaries included Iowa and Montana.

J. Miles Coleman

The Down-Ballot Consequences of Trump’s VP Options

Tags
As Donald Trump ponders his running mate options, he and his team should at least consider the possibility that his VP choice could put a down-ballot office, particularly a Senate seat, in play in a future election. That said, because nearly all of Trump’s rumored possible running mates are from reddish or outright red districts and states, his VP pick would not immediately cost Republicans an office, although it could down the road in a few instances.

Kyle Kondik

The State Supreme Court Skirmishes

Tags
State supreme court elections are often ignored by the public and the media, but they can have a dramatic impact on public policy, especially in the post-Roe v. Wade era, when abortion policy is being sent back to the states. Numerically, 2024 is a very big year for such elections: They will be held in 33 states. And in several of those states, ideological control of the court could shift depending on the results.

Louis Jacobson

Notes on the State of Politics: May 15, 2024

In Maryland, Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) comfortably defeated Rep. David Trone (D, MD-6). Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) appears on an easy path to the Senate, though there was a hotly-contested Republican primary to replace him. Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) announced he'd run for a fifth term, and starts out a heavy favorite in his blue state.

J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics: May 7, 2024

Tags
TX-28 moves from Likely Dem to Leans Dem following up indictment of Rep. Henry Cuellar (D), and we follow up our item from last week about the tricky procedural questions if no one wins a majority of electoral votes in the presidential election and the House needs to resolve it.

Kyle Kondik

Where Trump’s Primary Showing Was (And Wasn’t) Especially Strong

Tags
Though Donald Trump handily won most states that have voted in the 2024 Republican primary season so far, his stregth was not uniform. Using his overall performance against his most prominent rival, Ambassador Nikki Haley, as a baseline in each state, Trump's numbers were strongest in rural and exurban areas and weakest in places that have trended Democratic in general elections--although there were some exceptions.

J. Miles Coleman

Rating Changes: Arizona Senate and AZ-6

Tags
We’re making a couple of rating changes today, both in Arizona. The state’s open-seat Senate race goes from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, and Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R, AZ-6) moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up.

Kyle Kondik

An Electoral College Time Capsule

Tags
The six presidential elections held during the 25-year history of the Center for Politics were often close, although most states voted predictably. As part of a time capsule we are putting together to be opened at the center’s 50th anniversary in 2049, we are asking our future students to consider what has changed and what has stayed the same. Had we done the same exercise when the center was founded 25 years ago, we would have seen an Electoral College alignment from 1976-1996 that looked a lot different than what we’ve become familiar with this century.

Kyle Kondik

Making Sense of Arizona’s New Electoral Landscape

Tags
Yesterday in Arizona, the state Supreme Court gave the green light to a strict, 1860s-era law that bans abortion in nearly all cases. Democrats may be poised to ride the backlash in this swing state, as some local Republicans are trying to distance themselves from the ruling. Meanwhile, the Nebraska legislature's debate over its electoral vote allocation could further elevate Arizona's importance in the Electoral College.

J. Miles Coleman