| Dear Readers: Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson assesses a series of state-level contests for the Crystal Ball. Earlier this cycle, he provided overviews of state supreme court races as well as attorney general and secretary of state contests. Today he turns his attention to the race for control of state legislatures. The Crystal Ball does not issue formal race ratings for these races as part of our normal coverage (we reserve those “official” ratings for the Electoral College, Senate, House, and governors, which we will continually update up until Election Day), but we are also offering Lou’s updates and ratings on these lower-level but still-important races, which he has covered for many years.
— The Editors |
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— In our first handicapping of state legislature control of the 2024 cycle, we find 12 chambers that are competitive—either Leans Republican, Toss-up, or Leans Democratic. Compared to recent election cycles, that’s a medium number of competitive chambers.
— At this point in the 2024 cycle, the Republicans are playing defense in more chambers than the Democrats are. The GOP currently holds 7 of the competitive chambers, while the Democrats hold 4 of the competitive chambers. One other chamber, the Alaska Senate, is controlled by a cross-partisan alliance.
— Among the competitive chambers, 7 are rated Toss-up. This category includes the Alaska Senate as well as 3 Republican-held chambers (the Arizona Senate, the Arizona House, and the New Hampshire House) and 3 Democratic-held chambers (the Michigan House, the Minnesota House, and the Pennsylvania House).
— Four presidential battleground states this year have at least one competitive chamber: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Assessing the state legislative races
Despite state legislatures becoming ever-more important on such issues as abortion and LGBTQ rights, the effort to control as many chambers as possible is, as usual, taking a back seat to the presidential and congressional races.
In my first handicapping of state legislature control of the 2024 cycle, I find 12 chambers that are competitive—either Leans Republican, Toss-up, or Leans Democratic. Compared to recent election cycles, that’s a medium number of competitive chambers.
At this point in the 2024 cycle, Republicans are playing defense in more chambers than Democrats are. The GOP currently holds 7 of the competitive chambers, while the Democrats hold 4 of the competitive chambers. One other competitive chamber, the Alaska Senate, is controlled by a cross-partisan alliance.
By contrast, at a similar point in the 2022 cycle, it was the Democrats who were defending about twice as many chambers as the Republicans.
Among the competitive chambers, the most vulnerable to a party shift are the 7 rated Toss-up. This category includes the Alaska Senate as well as 3 Republican-held chambers (the Arizona Senate, the Arizona House, and the New Hampshire House) and 3 Democratic-held chambers (the Michigan House, the Minnesota House, and the Pennsylvania House).
Four presidential battleground states this year have at least one competitive chamber: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
This represents the 12th cycle I have handicapped state legislature control, dating back to the 2002 cycle. (Previous versions have been published in the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Political Report, Stateline.org, and Governing magazine.)
This analysis is based on interviews with dozens of state and national political sources. We rate chambers on the following scale: Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Leans Republican, Toss-up, Leans Democratic, Likely Democratic, and Safe Democratic. The categories labeled “Leans” and “Toss-up” are considered competitive or in play. “Likely” chambers aren’t expected to shift partisan control, but they could see seat gains by the minority party or are marginally less solid than “Safe” for the majority party. The Likely rating is also used in some instances to highlight some quirk about a chamber even though party control is solid—for instance, Democrats have no plausible path to winning a majority in the Ohio House, but it’s called Likely Republican here because of a looming speakership fight between rival Republicans (the current speaker got the job in large part because of backing from Democrats).
Four chambers rate Leans Republican: the Alaska House, the New Hampshire Senate, the Pennsylvania Senate, and the Wisconsin Assembly. All are currently Republican-held. Only one chamber is rated Leans Democratic: the Maine House. It’s currently held by the Democrats.
Table 1: Most competitive state legislative chambers
For the sake of comparison, my first handicapping of the 2022 cycle found 10 competitive chambers; my first handicapping of the 2020 cycle found 15 competitive chambers, and my first handicapping of the 2018 cycle found 18 competitive chambers.
In 2022, the Democrats had an unexpectedly good year on the legislative level. They flipped both chambers of the Michigan legislature as well as the Minnesota Senate and the Pennsylvania House, and they came within a hair of flipping the New Hampshire House.
In the big picture, though, the GOP has held a consistent edge in state legislative chambers for more than a decade.
Currently, the GOP controls 56 legislative chambers, while the Democrats control 41 chambers. (We’re counting Alaska’s Senate as “other,” while Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is formally nonpartisan.) Prior to the 2018 election, the GOP held 65 chambers, and before the 2016 election, the party held 68 chambers.
Earlier, the Democrats held the edge. As recently as the run-up to the 2010 election, Democrats had a 62 to 36 advantage in chambers. But Democrats lost ground for a variety of factors, including the 2010 GOP wave, a strong GOP redistricting cycle following the 2010 census, and the slow but permanent loss of yellow-dog Democratic chambers in the South.
Meanwhile, the chambers in this cycle’s Likely categories are worth a brief mention. These chambers are not considered competitive, but the majority party may be at risk of losing seats, in some cases enough seats to cost them a veto-proof supermajority.
The Likely Republican chambers are the Kansas Senate and House, the Montana Senate and House, the North Carolina Senate and House, the Ohio House, and the Wisconsin Senate. The Likely Democratic chambers are the Maine Senate, the Nevada Senate and Assembly, and the Washington Senate and House.
We will reassess these ratings periodically before Election Day as the political environment develops, both nationally and locally. For now, what follows are ratings and a thumbnail analysis for each state, except for those states that do not have races this year in one or both chambers.
For the most recent makeup of each chamber, we used data from the National Conference of State Legislatures, which was last updated in late April. We have eliminated vacant seats and those held by third parties from our state-by-state tallies below, and these overall tallies would not reflect changes since the most recent NCSL analysis. Map 1 shows the current party control of state legislatures.
Map 1: Current party control of state legislatures
With that, let’s go state by state in alphabetical order:
ALABAMA
Senate (27 R, 8 D): No races in 2024
House (75 R, 28 D): No races in 2024
ALASKA
Senate (11 R, 9 D, but a coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats controls chamber): Toss-up
House (22 R, 13 D, 5 other; Republican control, sometimes with Democratic assistance): Leans R
Partisanship in the Alaska legislature is more fluid than in almost any other state, with pragmatic Republicans often siding with (generally moderate) Democrats rather than with conservative hard-liners within their own party.
In the Senate, a cross-partisan coalition of Democrats and pragmatic Republicans is expected to continue. In the House, the most conservative Republicans frequently have enough votes to operate cohesively without Democratic support. That looks poised to continue.
Still, because of the Alaska legislature’s fractured dynamics, we’re continuing to rate both chambers as competitive. It has often taken weeks of post-election negotiations to settle the leadership structure, and there’s a good chance once again that control won’t be settled on Election Night.
ARIZONA
Senate (16 R, 14 D): Toss-up
House (31 R, 29 D): Toss-up
Arizona has been a focus of political attention given its shift from backing Donald Trump in 2016 to narrowly backing Joe Biden in 2020. This year the state also hosts a competitive Senate election for the seat being vacated by Independent (but Democratic-caucusing) Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. And the Arizona state legislature has become more competitive, too, as Republicans hold just narrow majorities in each chamber.
Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs has sparred with the legislature almost continuously, frequently vetoing conservative legislation. The most divisive issue has been abortion. A near-total 1864 ban was reinstated by the state supreme court, then was narrowly repealed by the legislature with Hobbs’s support. In its absence, a 2022 statute is poised to ban abortion after 15 weeks. Abortion-rights backers are pursuing a ballot measure that would bar legislative interference with abortion prior to fetal viability.
Even without the battle over abortion, Arizona’s narrow legislative margins would have meant an aggressive push from both parties to seize the majority in both chambers this year. The stakes could be especially high given the legislature’s role in finalizing the election results, which could be pivotal nationally—although the 2022 Electoral Count Reform Act clarified that legislatures have no such role, and they likely never had that power anyway (we added this clarification as an update after publication). With so much ferment in 2024, we’re rating both chambers Toss-up.
ARKANSAS
Senate (29 R, 6 D): Safe R
House (82 R, 18 D): Safe R
There’s no doubt that the Republicans will maintain overwhelming control in both Arkansas chambers.
CALIFORNIA
Senate (32 D, 8 R): Safe D
Assembly (62 D, 18 R): Safe D
In a state with a withered Republican Party, California Democrats not only control both chambers in Sacramento but maintain supermajorities as well.
While there are some storm clouds for Democrats, including looming budget deficits and discontent over crime, homelessness, and housing costs, the state remains so blue that there is essentially no chance that Democrats will lose their supermajorities in the legislature.
More likely are cleavages within the Democratic Party between progressive and moderate candidates, though those would largely play out in safe Democratic districts.
COLORADO
Senate (23 D, 12 R): Safe D
House (46 D, 19 R): Safe D
Colorado Democrats control both chambers, the House with a supermajority and the Senate without a supermajority. Little or no partisan movement is expected this year.
CONNECTICUT
Senate (24 D, 12 R): Safe D
House (98 D, 53 R): Safe D
Though Connecticut’s state Senate was tied as recently as 2018, the Democrats now have large margins in both chambers, thanks to the rise of Trump, who turned wealthy towns along the coast from Republican to Democratic. Progressive Democrats in the state are hoping to increase their seats to leverage Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont, who has governed in a more moderate fashion. But moderate Democrats should continue to play a pivotal role. The state’s fiscal position is the best it’s been in years, further helping secure Democratic control.
DELAWARE
Senate (15 D, 6 R): Safe D
House (26 D, 15 R): Safe D
Democrats will continue controlling both chambers of the Delaware legislature, but it’s unclear whether they can flip two more seats to control two-thirds of the seats in the House, joining the Senate, where Democrats already have that status (and vetoes can be overridden in Delaware with just three-fifths of each chamber). The Democrats have a few targets in the House to work with.
FLORIDA
Senate (28 R, 12 D): Safe R
House (84 R, 36 D): Safe R
In Florida, Republicans have controlled both legislative chambers for the past three decades. That won’t change in 2024; the party is well-positioned with supermajorities in both chambers.
Still, after reaching or matching new lows after a 2022 Republican landslide in the Sunshine State, Democrats may not have much further to fall. While Donald Trump is still favored to beat Joe Biden in Florida, Democratic turnout is poised to pick up by virtue of being a presidential year, and the party is also hoping for a boost from an abortion-rights ballot measure. Potentially, that could produce some marginal gains.
GEORGIA
Senate (33 R, 23 D): Safe R
House (101 R, 78 D): Safe R
In both Georgia chambers, the Republicans have fallen back modestly since 2016, and Democrats are embarking on a longer-term plan to gain ground in the House. Still, the current maps are oriented toward protecting incumbents, so large changes in partisan balance are not expected. Much of the action has been in primaries, with Republicans nudging right and Democrats edging left.
HAWAII
Senate (23 D, 2 R): Safe D
House (45 D, 6 R): Safe D
In Hawaii, both the House and Senate have massive Democratic margins. The party will retain its supermajority in both.
IDAHO
Senate (28 R, 7 D): Safe R
House (59 R, 11 D): Safe R
Idaho Democrats aren’t close to cracking the Republican supermajority in either chamber. The GOP, meanwhile, is split between a pragmatic, business-minded wing and a hardline social conservative wing. In the longer term, that GOP divide and the state’s continuing population inflow give Democrats a chance to make some gains on the margins. But while Democrats have nominated more legislative candidates to run this year than in the recent past, there’s no real expectation of notable progress.
ILLINOIS
Senate (39 D, 19 R): Safe D
House (78 D, 40 R): Safe D
Dominant Illinois Democrats have created supermajorities for themselves in the Illinois legislature. The Republican Party, meanwhile, is in disarray and has shifted so far to the right that it has lost credibility in most of the state’s heavily populated areas. Democrats should have no problems keeping firm control of both chambers.
INDIANA
Senate (40 R, 9 D): Safe R
House (70 R, 30 D): Safe R
Indiana’s big Republican majorities are safe for 2024. Democrats express optimism about flipping a few suburban Indianapolis seats in the House by emphasizing abortion, but that issue didn’t work especially well in Indiana in 2022 and it remains to be seen whether 2024 will be any different. It could easily be a tougher climb for Democrats, with Trump on the ballot; he won Indiana by 16 points in 2020.
IOWA
Senate (34 R, 16 D): Safe R
House (64 R, 36 D): Safe R
The legislature and GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds have pushed a conservative agenda the last few years, and there doesn’t seem to have been much pushback. Both chambers remain Safe Republican.
KANSAS
Senate (28 R, 11 D): Likely R
House (85 R, 40 D): Likely R
Kansas has a long history of rifts between moderate and conservative Republicans. Democrats are targeting the state to see if they can break one or both of the GOP’s supermajorities, which would help them sustain Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s many vetoes. It would only take flipping just a few seats. Kelly has started a PAC targeting key races to break the supermajority and she’s already raised over $1 million. This is the Democrats’ most aggressive effort since Kelly’s been in office, and Democrats are pleased with their candidate recruitment efforts. But while a special session on taxes could cause some tumult for the fall’s campaigns, the Republicans have no realistic chance of losing control this year.
KENTUCKY
Senate (31 R, 7 D): Safe R
House (80 R, 20 D): Safe R
Democrat Andy Beshear won reelection in November 2023, but that doesn’t mean Kentuckians have tired of their overwhelmingly Republican legislative chambers. Both the House and Senate rate as Safe Republican.
LOUISIANA
Senate (28 R, 11 D): No races in 2024
House (73 R, 32 D): No races in 2024
MAINE
Senate (22 D, 13 R): Likely D
House (80 D, 68 R): Leans D
In 2022, Maine looked like a possibility for a Republican flip (we rated both chambers Toss-up before the election) but the Democrats held on. For now, Democrats are favored in both, though with Republican chances for a flip somewhat better in the House. There was a fair amount of Democratic in-fighting during this past session, but it’s unclear how much that will push voters towards the GOP.
MARYLAND
Senate (34 D, 13 R): No races in 2024
House (102 D, 39 R): No races in 2024
MASSACHUSETTS
Senate (36 D, 4 R): Safe D
House (133 D, 25 R): Safe D
In Massachusetts’s lopsided legislative chambers, the Democratic supermajorities are ultra-safe.
MICHIGAN
Senate (20 D, 18 R): No races in 2024
House (56 D, 54 R): Toss-up
Michigan will be one of the key battleground states in the presidential race, as well as home to a competitive Senate contest and several tight U.S. House races. The Michigan Senate is not up in 2024, but the Michigan House is, and it will be hotly contested.
In 2022, the Democrats flipped both chambers, and they maintain only a narrow majority in the House. Republicans wouldn’t need to gain many seats to flip the chamber, and the national GOP is focusing attention on it. A court-ordered remap of the House districts for 2024 made the Democrats’ majority slightly more vulnerable.
MINNESOTA
Senate (34 D, 33 R): No races in 2024
House (70 D, 64 R): Toss-up
The Democrats (or as they’re known in Minnesota, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party) have enacted a generally liberal agenda in Minnesota, now that they have control of both legislative chambers as well as the governorship under Tim Walz.
The Senate is not up for election until 2026, but the House is very much in play. The chamber will likely be decided by close contests in about 10 House districts.
One controversy that could affect these races involves Democratic state Sen. Nicole Mitchell. She won her district by 17 points in 2022 but was charged in April with felony burglary for breaking into her stepmother’s home, a four-hour drive northwest from her Twin Cities-area district, in the middle of the night. She has said she wanted family objects her stepmother had kept from her. The DFL majority kept her in the Senate during the final weeks of the recent session in order to maintain their one-seat edge; she cast the deciding vote that effectively blocked a vote on her own expulsion.
More recently, however, Walz and DFL party chair Ken Martin called on Mitchell to resign. But she has so far said she will not resign; court proceedings in her case are set to begin July 1.
The state GOP has sought to take advantage of her situation, but it remains to be seen whether it will motivate voters.
MISSISSIPPI
Senate (36 R, 16 D): No races in 2024
House: (79 R, 41 D): No races in 2024
MISSOURI
Senate (24 R, 10 D): Safe R
House (111 R, 51 D): Safe R
Both chambers are safely under GOP control, and with Trump on the ballot again in a state he won by 16 points in 2020, Republicans should be sitting pretty.
MONTANA
Senate (34 R, 16 D): Likely R
House (68 R, 32 D): Likely R
Republicans currently hold a supermajority in both chambers in Montana, where the governor, Greg Gianforte, is also a Republican. But even though continued GOP legislative control is not in question in Montana, their supermajority is very much on the line.
Eccentrically among states, Montana redistricts prior to elections in years ending in “4” rather than “2,” so the districts are new this year. In the House in particular, this has opened up some opportunities for Democrats, especially in or near several Montana cities. With Sen. Jon Tester up for reelection this year, and with abortion remaining a salient issue, Montana is drawing money and attention from Democrats.
Republicans acknowledge that the loss of a few House seats is likely, but precisely how many remains to be seen. A Democratic gain of 6 seats in the House is considered feasible, and that could rise to 10 to 12 if the party really runs the table.
The chances for Democratic gains in the Senate are slimmer, perhaps 2 seats, but even that would undo the GOP supermajority in that chamber.
NEBRASKA
Nebraska has a unicameral, nonpartisan legislature, so we do not handicap it. However, the chamber leans conservative, even if its members are not officially Republicans. Democrats in recent years have been clinging to a sufficient number of members to sustain filibusters, at least on some issues, but that power is in jeopardy after a Democratic-to-Republican party switch earlier this year.
NEVADA
Senate (13 D, 7 R): Likely D
Assembly (26 D, 14 R): Likely D
At full strength, the Democrats have a supermajority in the Nevada Assembly and are one vote short in the Senate. Nevada Democrats are hoping to flip an open seat in Washoe County (Reno), which would give them the Senate supermajority.
With the governorship in the hands of Republican Joe Lombardo, the GOP’s first priority is to stave off a supermajority in both chambers, or at the very least in one chamber. In the June 11 GOP primary, establishment candidates favored by Lombardo consistently defeated MAGA-aligned Republicans, which could help the GOP in November.
Democrats, meanwhile, have faced their own splits; the influential Culinary Union withdrew support for several legislative Democrats who voted for a bill that would not require daily cleaning of hotel rooms. In the Democratic primary, the union saw mixed results. Democrats also express concern about softness for Biden in presidential polling in the state.
Ultimately, Democrats are heavily favored to keep control in both chambers, but the existence of several moving pieces suggests that both chambers rate Likely Democratic rather than Safe Democratic.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Senate (14 R, 10 D): Leans R
House (201 R, 194 D): Toss-up
New Hampshire’s small Senate and large House are known for flipping partisan control: Since 2008, the Senate has changed hands 3 times and the House has flipped 5 times.
Lines favorable to Republicans should help the GOP maintain its modest edge in the Senate; it rates Leans Republican. But the House has been teetering on the edge of a Democratic takeover since the 2022 election, so we’re calling it a Toss-up. If one of the nominees for the open gubernatorial seat gains traction, something that won’t be known until after the Sept. 10 primary, that could provide coattails in the legislature. The Republican takeover of the state legislature in 2020 was one of that cycle’s biggest electoral surprises.
NEW JERSEY
Senate (25 D, 15 R): No races in 2022
Assembly (52 D, 28 R): No races in 2022
NEW MEXICO
Senate (27 D, 15 R): Safe D
House (45 D, 25 R): Safe D
Democrats are navigating some splits between moderate and progressive factions in both chambers, but the party’s margins in the Senate and House are strong, and many of the most affected districts will be unwinnable by Republicans in the general election regardless of the Democratic nominee’s ideology.
NEW YORK
Senate (42 D, 21 R): Safe D
Assembly (102 D, 48 R): Safe D
While New York Democrats have some internal splits between moderates and progressives, both chambers will continue to be controlled by Democrats.
NORTH CAROLINA
Senate (30 R, 20 D): Likely R
House (72 R, 48 D): Likely R
The Republican margins in North Carolina are large enough to ensure the party’s continued majority in both chambers. But whether the GOP can maintain its supermajorities in both chambers is less certain (Republicans hold exactly 60% of the seats in each chamber, enough to override vetoes by outgoing Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper).
The GOP is better positioned in the Senate; the House is more precarious. In the House, they hold their supermajority by one seat, and that seat is occupied by Tricia Cotham, who switched from Democratic to Republican after her last election. North Carolina has a number of fiercely contested races this year, including the presidential and gubernatorial races. One, or both, could have effects that spill over to legislative races.
NORTH DAKOTA
Senate (43 R, 4 D): Safe R
House (82 R, 12 D): Safe R
The Republicans have massive margins in North Dakota and are in no danger of losing control.
OHIO
Senate (26 R, 7 D): Safe R
House (66 R, 31 D): Likely R
Ohio Republicans have been on a roll in recent election cycles, and both legislative chambers should continue with GOP majorities, perhaps even with their current supermajorities.
However, under the surface, the Ohio House is turbulent. The Republican speaker, Jason Stephens, was supported by Democrats, along with a minority of Republicans, because he was a more moderate choice than the Republican caucus-nominated candidate, Derek Merrin (Merrin is now the GOP nominee against long-serving Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a key U.S. House race this year).
In the Senate, meanwhile, Republican Senate President Matt Huffman is term-limited and is running for the House; if he wins, as expected, is poised to challenge Stephens for the speakership.
In this year’s elections, Republicans could lose a few seats, especially in the House, but they should keep a healthy majority in both chambers. An anti-gerrymandering measure could be headed to the ballot this year that, if passed and enacted, could make Ohio’s chambers more competitive in future elections.
OKLAHOMA
Senate (40 R, 8 D): Safe R
House (81 R, 20 D): Safe R
Though there have been tensions between Republican moderates and conservatives, both chambers in Oklahoma will continue with Republican supermajorities; only a handful of seats this year are considered competitive between the parties.
OREGON
Senate (17 D, 12 R): Safe D
House (35 D, 25 R): Safe D
Democratic control of Oregon is far from popular, but the party should win the three statewide offices on the ballot this year amid a large presidential turnout.
Because half the Senate is up for election every two years, the parties in the chamber are advantaged a little differently each time. Two years ago, Republicans saw an opening because of the marginal and open Democratic seats that were up; at the time, we rated the chamber Leans Democratic. As it happened, the GOP only gained one seat, not enough for a flip.
This year, by contrast, most of the seats that are up are held by Republicans, and Democrats are favored to either hold their ground or pick up a seat, potentially an open GOP-held seat around increasingly Democratic Bend.
One wrinkle: Six of the GOP Senate seats up this year will have non-incumbent Republicans running because the Oregon Supreme Court upheld a voter-approved rule barring legislators with 10 or more unexcused absences from running again. (The measure sought to curb walkouts by minority legislators that brought activity to a halt.) But the seats in this category are generally in safe Republican districts.
Meanwhile, in the House, all 60 seats are up, but only a few of them are considered reasonably competitive.
No party in either chamber has hit a two-thirds supermajority in decades, but the 60% level, which is required for passing tax hikes and some other types of bills, is within the Democrats’ reach in both chambers. But even if they fall short, the Democratic majorities are safe in both chambers.
PENNSYLVANIA
Senate (28 R, 22 D): Leans R
House (102 D, 100 R): Toss-up
Setting aside quirky Alaska, Pennsylvania is the only state in the nation that currently has a true partisan split in its legislative chambers, with a Republican Senate and a Democratic House. Republicans are modestly favored to hold the Senate, where half the seats are up, but in the House, the margins are so close that vacancies have sometimes caused the Democratic majority some headaches. The chamber is a clear Toss-up.
Pennsylvania will be a major political battleground this year, with a close presidential race and a competitive U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. and Republican challenger David McCormick. But at this point it’s unclear how much impact those contests will have down the ballot. In a neutral environment, the Democrats might be able to expand their majority in the House by a couple seats, but we’ll have to see if the environment remains neutral.
It’s also unclear how aggressive Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro will be in legislative campaigns. While unified control would have obvious benefits for Shapiro, a Republican Senate has some too, providing him a foil.
RHODE ISLAND
Senate (32 D, 5 R): Safe D
House (65 D, 9 R): Safe D
Rhode Island’s big-tent Democratic Party suffers from ongoing rifts between moderates and progressives, but there’s no indication that Democratic dominance in the state is in danger of reversing, especially given that the pipeline of qualified Republican candidates is stalled.
SOUTH CAROLINA
Senate (30 R, 15 D): Safe R
House (88 R, 36 D): Safe R
South Carolina Republicans don’t have to worry about their wide majorities in both chambers. However, there was a nationally noteworthy result in last week’s primary: Three Republican women in the Senate who had helped defeat a near-total abortion ban in the state faced tough primaries; two lost and another was forced into a runoff.
SOUTH DAKOTA
Senate (31 R, 4 D): Safe R
House (63 R, 7 D): Safe R
Both the House and Senate have large Republican majorities, and that won’t change in 2024; Democrats won’t even be fielding a full slate of legislative candidates. The real battle in South Dakota has been between conservative Republicans and even more conservative Republicans.
In the June 4 primary, hard-right candidates knocked off several more establishment-oriented candidates. But South Dakota Democrats don’t have much of a shot at leveraging such results to their benefit.
TENNESSEE
Senate (27 R, 6 D): Safe R
House (75 R, 24 D): Safe R
Tennessee remains deep red and giant GOP majorities in both chambers are fully expected to hold.
TEXAS
Senate (19 R, 11 D): Safe R
House (86 R, 64 D): Safe R
The primary season showcased splits within the Texas GOP, with more than a dozen hardline conservatives ousting more pragmatic incumbents (although House Speaker Dade Phelan survived a challenge from his right).
However, there are too few competitive seats in the general election to give Democrats much of a chance to gain ground. Only 1 of the 15 Senate seats up this year is competitive, and between 6 and 10 of the 150 House seats are competitive; even running the table wouldn’t get Democrats a majority.
UTAH
Senate (23 R, 6 D): Safe R
House (61 R, 14 D): Safe R
Republicans are poised to maintain their supermajorities in both of Utah’s chambers. There are some intraparty tensions within the Republican caucus, but not enough to weaken GOP control.
VERMONT
Senate (21 D, 7 R, other 1): Safe D
House (104 D, 37 R, other 8): Safe D
Both chambers in Vermont are safe for the Democrats, and their supermajorities probably are as well, even though the state is governed by moderate Republican Phil Scott.
VIRGINIA
Senate (21 D, 19 R): No races in 2024
House (51 D, 49 R): No races in 2024
WASHINGTON
Senate (29 D, 20 R): Likely D
House (58 D, 40 R): Likely D
Washington is generally a blue state, though the Republicans have held narrow control of the state Senate at times within the past decade. Today, Democrats hold majorities in both chambers and should keep them; while Democrats are experiencing progressive-moderate splits, Republicans are at least as divided between their establishment and populist wings. But if moderate GOP former Rep. Dave Reichert makes it to the general election for the open-seat gubernatorial race, Republicans would have their best shot at winning the governorship in years. We may adjust this rating as the campaign develops, but for now, the chambers rate Likely Democratic.
WEST VIRGINIA
Senate (31 R, 3 D): Safe R
House (89 R, 11 D): Safe R
There’s something of a populist-establishment divide within the Republican Party, but in solidly red West Virginia, the GOP’s giant majorities in the legislature are rock solid.
WISCONSIN
Senate (22 R, 10 D): Likely R
Assembly (64 R, 35 D): Leans R
The state supreme court ruled that legislative maps needed to be redrawn in a way that’s less tilted toward the GOP. The resulting maps will get their first test in November; all Assembly seats and half the Senate seats will be up. The Democrats should be able to gain seats in both chambers, but flipping the chambers, particularly the Senate, will be an uphill battle.
WYOMING
Senate (29 R, 2 D): Safe R
House (57 R, 5 D): Safe R
Wyoming Republicans have an extraordinary lock on both chambers, but that masks intra-party competition between pragmatists and a group of hardline conservatives called the Freedom Caucus.
The Aug. 20 primaries will determine which GOP faction will have the upper hand; the Freedom Caucus is just a few seats away from ensuring control of the chambers’ leadership. (Only half of the Senate’s seats are up this year.) The few Democrats in the legislature are mostly occupying safe seats, and the party looks forward to picking up a House seat with a majority-Native American electorate. But with margins like these, Wyoming Democrats have little prospect of relevance.
| Louis Jacobson is a Senior Columnist for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. He is also the senior correspondent at the fact-checking website PolitiFact and is senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024. He was senior author of the Almanac’s 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 editions and a contributing writer for the 2000 and 2004 editions. |