|The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here.|
10:19 PM Oct 15th: Last couple of campaign weeks more deceptive than revealing. Too much partisan spinning, second-guessing, wild speculation.
10:20 PM Oct 15th: A small proportion of contests really do flip at the end. For all the others, we’re better off sticking to our original projections.
10:25 PM Oct 15th: Nice break tomorrow. Homecomings @UVA. Get to see some of 15,000 students I’ve taught, plus classmates ’70-’74, plus older alums.
10:26 PM Oct 15th: After 40 yrs here, I’m like a stick of old furniture–frayed but comfortable. Destined to be thrown out one day, of course–as it should be.
8:25 AM Oct 18th: Polyscientists & journalists differ. My field looks to fundamental, fairly stable factors to project elections, so we can do so early.
8:26 AM Oct 18th: Journalists and journalistic analysts think elections are all about tactics, TV ads, $$$, and day-to-day events & scandals. A wide divide.
8:29 AM Oct 18th: It’s actually pretty easy to project elections at the end, after 100s of polls. It’s much tougher to do so months in advance.
9:49 AM Oct 18th: A close race that may actually change is AK Senate. Could Murkowski actually pull off a write-in thx to Joe Miller’s many fumbles? Not sure.
9:52 AM Oct 18th: If Murkowski were actually on the ballot, at this point I think she’d win. Yet the write-in procedural hurdles are serious. But Miller, wow.
9:54 AM Oct 18th: McAdams(D-AK) was/is slated to finish 3rd. But this is currently the nation’s craziest race, and that’s saying something in 2010.
6:06 AM Oct 20th: You are a fool if you believe any new publicly released polls paid for by the campaigns or parties. Pure spin & manipulation this late.
6:09 AM Oct 20th: The PRIVATE campaign & party polls are often better than the independent public polling. But this info is released selectively or not at all