The 2004 Lineup for Congress and Statehouses
The Crystal Ball has looked anew at the races for Senate, House, and Governor in ’04. Not surprisingly, as the race for president has become very competitive, the Senate looks less like a slam-dunk for the Republicans. There are only a handful of real races, as usual, and presidential coattail could matter in many of them. Let’s go to the Summary Board: Senate Current Senate Line-up: 51 R, 49 D (counting Jeffords) Open D Seats: Fla., Ga., La., N.C., S.C. Open R Seats: Colo., Ill., Okla. Competitive Incumbent Seats: Ark. (Murkowski-R), S.D. (Daschle-D) There are always surprises later in the Senate season, with an incumbent or two in unexpected trouble, for instance. But for now, these ten seats are where the Senate action is for 2004. Georgia can be safely counted as a GOP pick-up, but the other four Southern Democratic open seats are question marks until the candidate choices are made. As an early guess, the Crystal Ball sees the total GOP haul as perhaps two or three of the five. If Bush comes back strong in the fall, and wins the South in a landslide, then the GOP might, just might, get four of the five. As for